model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[stodge]

Evening all

It would be wrong to say there are no signs of any settled conditions on the 12Z output this evening.

It would be fair to say it's all still in FI but there are hints and trends of the trough finally aligning positively and allowing the Azores HP to ridge NE across southern Britain.

The 850s are reasonable without being spectacular in far FI so if you want dry and warm (rather than dry and hot) there are clear signs of something more to your liking.

However, the more immediate is less promising and we could still have 10-14 days of this unsettled spell to get through.

[Frosty.]

Don’t all rush to comment on the ECM 12z operational!...aha Matt beat me too it!..... anyway there is some good news by day 10, the trough is filling  and the uppers (850’s) don’t look too terrible,  the Azores high is erm, erm, in the Azores ... ...but yeah, it looks poised to make its move. erm,  beyond day 10! ...but that’s cool because mid month is when everything will change innit! 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Well, this arvo's GEFS 12Z ensembles are NAE BAD!  

                           

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Ed Stone

[DAVID SNOW]

And anyway, cutting through all the nonsense the ECM this evening shows low after after low impacting on the UK right out to day 10, very poor for our limited 'high summer' window. 

10 days is a stretch with any model, so looking past that to maybe 14 days, and your back in the extended guessing game again....

[Frosty.]

To my untrained eyes, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean day 10 looks slightly better than the 0z?...anyway, the potential interest is currently beyond ecm range but thankfully the Gfs / GEFS does now reach mid august and there’s been some great signs today...it’s just the beginning, I have a good feeling that summery weather will return, either just before or during mid month!...   

Edited July 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

And anyway, cutting through all the nonsense the ECM this evening shows low after after low impacting on the UK right out to day 10, very poor for our limited 'high summer' window. 

10 days is a stretch with any model, so looking past that to maybe 14 days, and your back in the extended guessing game again....

There's a little more to it than purely guessing. The last settled spell was picked up several weeks earlier regarding rising AAM! There's not much point in anyone coming on here to issue a forecast beyond a few days,if its merely going to be a case of guessing! I'm pretty sure Exeter and the like do a little more than guess when they issue there monthly forecasts! Yes beyond 10 days is fraught with error at anytime of the year! But there are signs for sure of things settling down before much longer on a fair amount of data.

Can't you come on here once in a while and issue a forecast,rather than to keep saying its all pretty pointless second guessing the models beyond a certain timeframe!

[DAVID SNOW]

On 30/07/2021 at 21:11, MATTWOLVES said:

There's a little more to it than purely guessing. The last settled spell was picked up several weeks earlier regarding rising AAM! There's not much point in anyone coming on here to issue a forecast beyond a few days,if its merely going to be a case of guessing! I'm pretty sure Exeter and the like do a little more than guess when they issue there monthly forecasts! Yes beyond 10 days is fraught with error at anytime of the year! But there are signs for sure of things settling down before much longer on a fair amount of data.

Can't you come on here once in a while and issue a forecast,rather than to keep saying its all pretty pointless second guessing the models beyond a certain timeframe!

Not here to issue forecasts, just comment on what the models show, if members wish to post about their abundant knowledge of rising AAM , and then guess what that may bring in the future is fine by me, just remember there are many other 'signals', drivers at play all at the same time, so again guessing is fine, and fun too.

No need to take it so personally, it's just the usual unpredictability for the UK , with our geographical location. not easy, and requires guessing for things to fall 'right'

[Mark wheeler]

Looked to the Navgem this evening to see if I could find any comfort . Suffice to say I didn't find it . 

[Allseasons-Si]

I feel that there is tentative signs that there will be a better spell of finer weather come mid month onwards the Scandi high is flexing it's muscles

"watch this space".

Edited July 30, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[carinthian]

On 29/07/2021 at 09:57, carinthian said:

 I am not sure how accurate these storm tracking charts are but looking at the one below some agreement from these members that show Southern England in the Bulls Eye for any potential Atlantic storm for this time next week. Still a long way off but the low latitude jet not helping for a quick return to nice summer temperatures.

 C

 

GFS runs continue to power the jet well south with another Atlantic Low heading for Southern Britain next week. The exact positioning not yet determined with ECM indicating its track further south  nearer to the mainland continent but a development one to watch unfold over the coming week.

C

Edited July 31, 2021 by carinthian

[ANYWEATHER]

10 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Not here to issue forecasts, just comment on what the models show, if members wish to post about their abundant knowledge of rising AAM , and then guess what that may bring in the future is fine by me, just remember there are many other 'signals', drivers at play all at the same time, so again guessing is fine, and fun too.

No need to take it so personally, it's just the usual unpredictability for the UK , with our geographical location. not easy, and requires guessing for things to fall 'right'

Indeed I think some people have nothing better to do than just make random comments about the upcoming weather. Yes this is the model output discussion and literally know one knows how things will pan out to give us a quick return to Summer. Yes a very volItile situation coming up next week one to watch....

[johnholmes]

Not often the 500 mb anomaly chart from NOAA shows a broad band of troughs from one side of the chart to the other! North of it a broad band of ridging!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[bluearmy]

week 2 looks to improve …..gefs most keen with geps least. Eps in the middle.  There are certainly straws to clutch although few sustained signs that temps will go anomalously high if we do settle down somewhat. I’m sure most would take a more settled period irrespective of temps ….

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed I think some people have nothing better to do than just make random comments about the upcoming weather. Yes this is the model output discussion and literally know one knows how things will pan out to give us a quick return to Summer. Yes a very volItile situation coming up next week one to watch....

Well if I was allowed to talk about music and weight lifting...I would make random comments about those as well!

So here is another random comment about the output!

It's unsettled through next week,that doesn't mean relentless rain though,sunny spells also!

Guess what....it looks to settle down come week 2! And I think the ens may be getting a hold on this evolution now!

 

[Man With Beard]

I'm starting to see a potential lifting of the pattern around 12th August, as a pulse from the Azores High looks to push a bit further north. Looking at individual clusters, I feel it may only be enough to rescue southern areas into something more summery, but the clusters show at least a fighting chance of something better for all by the 15th.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS 6Z says well hello there Matthew!! I want some Summer loving also! ❤

Looks much better I'm sure you will agree.

Edited July 31, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean now reaches 10th August and I continue to see slight improvements with each day that passes!..I certainly don’t think august will be a dud, I think there is potential for a return to summery conditions towards mid month and beyond!  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean now reaches 10th August and I continue to see slight improvements with each day that passes!..I certainly don’t think august will be a dud, I think there is potential for a return to summery conditions towards mid month and beyond!  

 

Tell you what mate,if this spell doesn't come off..our reputations and credentials are shot on here! That's if we ever had any to start with!

Ohh the joys of trying to compile a forecast from an enthusiasm point of view.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Was the op backed up by the mean? Yes it was! Possible improvements around the 10th of August gaining traction! 

Edited July 31, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

06Z looking good at T+360. It is of course not alone!

    

Edited July 31, 2021 by Ed Stone
Doh!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12z continues with the High pressure building scenario,just look at those Heights towards scandy also! This looks better.

It's looking good..im happy

Edited July 31, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

Nice looking ridge:    Only guessing! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO day 7 courtesy of Brian...looking like the improvements are ready to pounce shortly after.

Come on guys and gals...let's get behind this next potential summary spell...let's rejoice and savour

Edited July 31, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Just a quickie as I’m watching a great movie called Blood Red Sky on Netflix! ...anyway, the Gem 12z warms up a bit later!  

[Singularity]

The prospective development of Azores-Scandinavia ridging during week 2 of August looks to be largely in response to the MJO crossing phase 8 while staying active.

GEFS have been most keen on it while EPS have slowly been coming around.

Longevity will depend on what the MJO does next - if it decides to throw a party over the Indian Ocean then we may struggle to keep fine weather through to end of week 3. If it doesn’t... who knows, it could be decent for most parts until late month .