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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh dear, there are some things it's just not possible to sugar coat:🥶

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Well, the latest Metoffice 16-30 day continues to offer some hope later in August for those wanting more hot weather....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Posted (edited)

    Is it OK for me too post on the let's discuss previous August's thread! 🤔🤓

    Perhaps the UKMO looks a little less drastic with next week's low,seems less blowed up..Will have to wait for the 7 day chart 😀

    UW96-21.gif

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    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS and GEM absolutely dreadful with low after low through their entire operational runs. Anything like these come off and parts of the south will be rivalling 2012 for the wettest summer on record. Looking at the output I’d bite your hand off for average August for rain, sun and temps. Second half is going to have to motor.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS tonight is actually an improvement on the morning runs to day 10 in that it tries to amplify the flow ahead of the low although i'm fairly sure that just slows the front, increases the gradient and produces more rainfall. 

    spacer.png

    GEM in full zonal mode.
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    Fairly good confidence then to day 10 at least that that after the weekends low gives way to a more sporadic showery pattern early in the week, low pressure will take full control again in around a week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.85a51816ba8449c8e44d933a80ad1cb1.png

    image.thumb.png.3296ca64e3f1dfb95e62c165dc3c0217.png

    ECM starts to break down northern blocking by the end of the run. That’s about as good as I can offer tonight for anything positive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A very poor end to July and start to August for anyone looking for warm settled weather. Complete opposite! Unsettled and cool, notably so under a chill northerly airstream. Hardly high summer! Not much else to say... what a contrast to last week, a major flip!

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    A very poor end to July and start to August for anyone looking for warm settled weather. Complete opposite! Unsettled and cool, notably so under a chill northerly airstream. Hardly high summer! Not much else to say... what a contrast to last week, a major flip!

    Must admit I’d not taken a look at the short term outlook for temperature. Forecast maxima of 15C, 14C and 17C to end the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For sure, the GEFS 0z mean does trend less unsettled later with the trough lifting out and the Azores high gradually becoming more influential, I know I’m looking in the depths of FI but if this is the trend, it ties in with the pros thoughts regarding mid / late august with a higher chance of anticyclonic conditions returning as well as increasing chance of hotter spells and still some plume potential too! 😉 ☀️ 🔥 😎 ⛈ 

    EAC162F2-6326-4E1C-9B14-6C439A471D43.thumb.png.ca9775774531c7c7c637c0939204dd17.png2288638A-E74D-4991-BEDE-B774B024BA5A.thumb.png.6c3c782e1986564b46b37b95adfcda47.png283892D2-B8B1-4E11-89A7-A7B3759CEF35.thumb.png.f386452b1a13a8985f49b47107d5c2d3.pngB30ACBE2-F26A-4DD4-B63E-62DCC0C9864E.thumb.png.b67fe87bd747b6d9ef013d845e979304.png3B4CD6F3-2F72-48F3-94CD-112F6DED3130.thumb.png.f67be8812fa6b3c6fc1882dbb6eb58aa.pngD44664E8-5067-40A3-95A8-1BF159625A7F.thumb.png.ad0d4c4bc7588a90879d0e6c82b3f742.png7A1AA256-D19C-4C5B-9DD0-8242B33B3042.thumb.png.cee8b9a9f59b3fff455c94f5175a0037.png228D005B-5646-48ED-AC72-69E69C81D5E0.thumb.png.3ed86e439f40e22854d7f1c7ed1ead3e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    I’m not fully convinced by this nailed on washout August discourse that’s flying around this forum and the twittersphere at present. That’s not too say I don’t agree it’s a very realistic possibility: it is. However there are some small signs of optimism from a summery perspective in both the short term  and extended range, once tonight’s troublesome low swings up and through England later tonight...

    In the shorter range  the models have extended the coolish / dryish spell from Saturday through to late Wednesday / Early Thursday. A low then looks highly likely to blast through  this ridge and portend an unsettled spell nationwide. The key question is how long this lasts... According to the latest EPS it’s at least 2/3 in favour of continuing but the remaining third of members go for either a re-emergence of a ridge close to Ireland or a pattern we haven’t seen in some time: the canonical ridge to the SE and a more traditional NW/SE split.

     image.thumb.png.0cd00bef643828a37dfa03205b6e1f41.png
    The GEFS by that time has a similarly hard to decipher spread of solutions with the NW/SE split swapping positions towards the end...

    image.thumb.png.393bf5bbe1236aff9a5aa8d3f2c1ca91.png

     

    image.thumb.png.c7e8be8c022645324339658e123a389a.png
     

    In short then whilst it doesn’t look great for a return to warm and sunny weather especially in the 6-10 day range it’s not yet the time to throw in the beach towel for this summer just yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Once this clears theirs hopefully an opportunity for a long good weather spell. 

    Screenshot_20210729_092907.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

     I am not sure how accurate these storm tracking charts are but looking at the one below some agreement from these members that show Southern England in the Bulls Eye for any potential Atlantic storm for this time next week. Still a long way off but the low latitude jet not helping for a quick return to nice summer temperatures.

     C

    storm_tracks_20210729_00_144.jpg

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    A very poor end to July and start to August for anyone looking for warm settled weather. Complete opposite! Unsettled and cool, notably so under a chill northerly airstream. Hardly high summer! Not much else to say... what a contrast to last week, a major flip!

    I have to disagree, besides the people who have been unlucky, the storms we've had have been great, temperature wise kind of bad but definitely could be much worse. So this July I say have been quite good.

    Edited by Atmogenic
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looking ever more likely that, following the current spell (of weather that I quite enjoy!😱) things will really be on 'the up'? GFS 06Z:🤔🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    PS: Any chance of putting 'autumnal' into the swear filter?😁

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
    31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Looking ever more likely that, following the current spell (of weather that I quite enjoy!😱) things will really be on 'the up'? GFS 06Z:🤔🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    PS: Any chance of putting 'autumnal' into the swear filter?😁

    Well it does have that ******** feel about it today!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    netweathersun.png
    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

    Latest Met Office Fax synoptic weather maps

     

     

    Is the Met O Fax charts showing the major storm moving into the SW later today. Quite severe winds in the SW for this time of year. For weather enthusiasts an interesting 24+ hours coming up.

    Stay safe anyone on holiday or living in the area with the main warning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 6z mean gradually improves longer term with the in-situ trough lifting out and the Azores ridge / high starting to wax!...I continue to believe that the mid august period will be pivotal with a much improved second half compared to the first...of course, the wild beast that the weather is may have other ideas but anyway, just my current thoughts! 😉 ☀️ 

    AB6E253C-E98C-4B19-9E3E-6A08C538EB7C.thumb.png.6561e76efd1415f9eef421e050810e9d.pngD4109563-ADAB-499C-ABBD-85A5A0A86EE2.thumb.png.872eec4096572f7d4f50924e68265549.png874EB8D3-3D62-44F2-B587-8795A4BD079B.thumb.png.6b5ab2967a9e2fa1ac744a16ed16c583.png575B168D-5B89-4DCC-9876-C21281E5A7C8.thumb.png.3797892f47d15fbc62d5c22966aedde9.png97BCE484-ECEB-4DD4-B918-EC55A5A4D036.thumb.png.b65bcc10bb1bb8e968e18a49620cd622.pngC7F21081-0D8C-4DC3-B911-4034FC793C76.thumb.png.12e282e0e9eabe257bb615c09a089123.pngD9B1E8D9-BA89-4A37-9056-A6E2918689AA.thumb.png.fe5235414a965866064d0b804d96f567.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    First post for three hours! I think I detect a wee bit of potential 'plumeyness' in the outer reaches of the Delta Quadrant. I mean the GFS 12Z!👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png    image.thumb.png.06f1b3ee14e037913082224093f961fc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A touch of frost possible over the weekend in the far North in the Glen's by the weekend, And Northern areas into Monday morning.

    649432015_viewimage(3).thumb.png.8654e0c066bcc3f1f9804ae4b7addff7.png

     

     

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    8 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

    I have to disagree, besides the people who have been unlucky, the storms we've had have been great, temperature wise kind of bad but definitely could be much worse. So this July I say have been quite good.

    I guess it depends what you want from late July, if you like thundery donwpours, cool weather and stormy conditions, you'll like what we have on offer, alas if you want dry, sunny, warm weather you won't. An assumption is the majority of people prefer the latter at this time of year, so in their perspective this is a very poor end to July, and I'm in that camp,

    Back to the models, once the troublesome low pressure shifts its way across England tomorrow, a cool northerly takes over, and its a long drawn one, temps below average, more so at night. Into the new week, a weak ridge moving through but not bringing much warmth, followed by more unsettled trough dominated conditions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

     

     

     

    E9453189-8BF6-4EC7-A7CB-58EE09E2C71F.thumb.png.cd697212ab0fd7e033551e827fb5abc4.pngA1F9F17A-9F5F-47BF-9A14-539A151C96AF.thumb.png.3b378ed9bca2a902a0bfae015cd7ea02.png66D5EAF5-A43F-484B-91C9-91BFB52CC4D2.thumb.png.858adc5fa81bed5e719b26b6033f3472.png   🙈🙈🙈...big pattern change there🤐

     

    The Gfs 12z operational is looking nae bad for mid August! 😉.... 😱

    4FEC2E6A-AA0D-4AB3-9E41-4DFBE545609E.thumb.jpeg.bf13086d1fb0d6e2ba5a20d5734c5cbb.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Perhaps some better news at last...extended ECM mean out too day 14 is now picking up on a pressure rise...close to a 1020mb towards mid month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the ECM 12z operational day 10......erm, erm, yeah..we’re really making progress! 🤔 😉 😱 

    8EAA830B-7738-48F4-8B83-5BF56EDDA3E6.thumb.png.85363c798f236e268977f704959b73e6.png

     

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