model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter.

Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.

The Met office extended points to improving conditions mid month so they both won't be right.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Well there is some hope for about 2 weeks + time... but it depends upon how these charts evolve, so im speculating beyond their timeframe.

Previously id suggested that there no route to summery warmth as long as the strong Azores high was connected to the strong Greenland high by a ridge, and that pattern would need to change.

Well the latest 8-14 chart has tentetively taken a step in that direction as the latest chart suggests the GLH will weaken as will the ridge North of the Azores high.
Coupled with a possible developing vortex over Northeastern Canada/Baffin , could allow the Azores high to build Eastwards, and drift away from its current centre West of the Azores. So we could be looking at a more settled summery spell by mid August. But that is speculation, and the sequence described would need to develop from the hints this chart has (in comparison to the previous).

But for now.... it suggests after next weekend it will be cool, with a fresh North of West airflow. Thats unsettled, but no monsoon..

At last mushy we agree on that potential evolution im hearing some bad vibes regarding background signals for the rest of the Smmer..then again,I tend to be hearing alot of noise regarding cold Winters that frequently fail based upon them!

Keep us updated on those signs of an improvement

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The best I can offer you this morning is that tentative signs of an improvement towards the South come week 2 of August! We perhaps eventually lose strong Heights over the Greenland area...until then I would say mixed...not a washout by any means,but very standard UK Summer conditions.

Just gone through all 30 members of the GFS 6z...and we have roughly around 8 or 9 members bringing an improvement towards the 2nd week of the new month!  That's roughly a quarter,not great,but hopefully a few more will begin to appear as we move forward.

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The best I can offer you this morning is that tentative signs of an improvement towards the South come week 2 of August! We perhaps eventually lose strong Heights over the Greenland area...until then I would say mixed...not a washout by any means,but very standard UK Summer conditions.

Just gone through all 30 members of the GFS 6z...and we have roughly around 8 or 9 members bringing an improvement towards the 2nd week of the new month!  That's roughly a quarter,not great,but hopefully a few more will begin to appear as we move forward.

I was thinking, given the propensity for a northerly or NWrly once or twice around month’s change, it wouldn’t be too bad if it’s a slack one. That would suggest relatively sunny and perhaps convective weather, albeit cooler than where we should be.

GFS has been throwing out some lows that would rival many in November in December. Not out of the question but I’m not quite believing a full on Atlantic onslaught akin to the autumn/winter months yet.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes I think the UKMO showing that cooler airmass at turn of the month,tends to look most unsettled towards the NE perhaps.. could be better drier and sunnier interludes towards the far W/SW..

Edit...quoting MP-R above 

Edited July 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mb018538]

Nothing has really changed has it? That brief glimmer of hope on the ecm last night looks like it was a false dawn. Cool and mainly unsettled for the foreseeable. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing has really changed has it? That brief glimmer of hope on the ecm last night looks like it was a false dawn. Cool and mainly unsettled for the foreseeable. 

Not broadly correct,yes cooler with showers at times.. looks like W/SW areas could be more settled into early next week,with the more unsettled conditions further North and East! Not a washout though by any means...that Low Pressure is probably gonna be boxed in with Heights either side of it,and we all know those patterns can become entrenched for 2 or 3 weeks...so we hang onto those improvements both the met and the Beeb hint at come mid month! Not so stressed at this point,as September can deliver decent weather for many...beyond that....hey Winter,andprobably more disappointment

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

July. Just a few weeks ago he highlighted the likely warm period.

Hes correct more often than half the folk here.

And less-often than the other half?

[bevo]

Assuming models are correct with no real summer spell until at least mid August I think that’s game over for proper ‘hot’ conditions, more like pleasant at best. The days are shorter, the sun is lower in the sky and as soon as September arrives our friend Mr Dew starts landing with mist and fog too.

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, bevo said:

Assuming models are correct with no real summer spell until at least mid August I think that’s game over for proper ‘hot’ conditions, more like pleasant at best. The days are shorter, the sun is lower in the sky and as soon as September arrives our friend Mr Dew starts landing with mist and fog too.

you have a short memory sir ... 2 years ago we had a roasting august bank holiday.. august 2003 and 1995 were hot too ..

[NApplewhite]

21 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Crazy differences between the 00z and 12z at day 10 as you can see. 00z lots of northern blocking still around, 12z has it all gone with low pressure back over the pole. Much better prospects for the UK of the 12z is correct.

 CFS reporting very unsettled weather until at least 9th August and possibly until at least 16th August. Hints of something more like summer at the end of August 2021

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing has really changed has it? That brief glimmer of hope on the ecm last night looks like it was a false dawn. Cool and mainly unsettled for the foreseeable. 

I agree - look at the latest GFS for 2nd August 

[NApplewhite]

Just now, NApplewhite said:

I agree - look at the latest GFS for 2nd August 

i give up on summer im off to live in southern Spain. 

[NApplewhite]

Just now, NApplewhite said:

i give up on summer im off to live in southern Spain. 

 Latest PPN charts - plenty of rain on the way 

[Methuselah]

So here's the GFS 12Z's prognostication for this time next week . . . Is talk of an 'Arctic Blast' being overblown (as it usually is during the winter months)? I don't know. But I do recall driving home from Mull, in early August 1993, and being amazed by the amount of snow there was on the mountains:

    

And, of course, on arriving home, I discovered that my tatties had all been zapped by frost. For the umpteenth time that summer!

[mb018538]

A brief respite on the gfs run before things turn downhill again middle to late next week, and another deep low comes barrelling in by Friday.

[Methuselah]

Who gave the 'Azores' HP a US passport?    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow that Napplewhite character sure loves quoting himself

UKMO looks more unsettled towards the N/NE thru the Weekend and early next week..So conditions could be OK further West and South West...temps probably around average..Thats far as I go...its to stressful

Whats the GFS been smoking! Does it think its October with its dartboard lows.

Edited July 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Singularity]

Some model runs continue to explore the more active MJO scenario but overall, after an encouraging couple of days, support is now dwindling. I hate to say it, but IMO, the probability of a settled spell within the first half of August has dropped to the low range.

I'd been hoping that we'd see the usual MJO underestimation play out and don't get me wrong, it still could, but seekers of warm & dry weather, I advise keeping feet firmly on the ground. Maybe even glued down!

At least the weather will be 'interesting', as there looks to be an emphasis on showers rather than frequent frontal rainfall, at least for the next week or so.

I feel sorry for those who've already had to contend with flash flooding or are at high risk following recent wet weather, though!

[JayAlmeida]

ECM adding to the flood woes if this verifies next week but @240 hours out there is still hope that it won't. I would be moaning if the HP was in this range saying it wont verify so I can use the same logic to remain positive

but the signals are not looking good.

[bevo]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

you have a short memory sir ... 2 years ago we had a roasting august bank holiday.. august 2003 and 1995 were hot too ..

I enjoyed the ‘warmth’ two years ago sat on a beach near Weymouth but it was warm air not the hot sun of mid summer you get in June / July.

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, bevo said:

I enjoyed the ‘warmth’ two years ago sat on a beach near Weymouth but it was warm air not the hot sun of mid summer you get in June / July.

you wouldnt on the coast! , august is hotter than june..

[mushymanrob]

this closely supports the gfs/ecm @ t240 .... sorry ...

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

ECM adding to the flood woes if this verifies next week but @240 hours out there is still hope that it won't. I would be moaning if the HP was in this range saying it wont verify so I can use the same logic to remain positive

but the signals are not looking good.

That is a dreadful chart, unfortunately it ties in with this disgrace from GFS pretty well.  
 

Anyone claiming the coming spell is anywhere near normal is either a wind up merchant or only interested in winter. Cool, showery, lots of clouds and probably two weeks of high summer down the bog 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, bevo said:

I enjoyed the ‘warmth’ two years ago sat on a beach near Weymouth but it was warm air not the hot sun of mid summer you get in June / July.

But you’re right, a 29C day in late August/Sept doesn’t pack the same punch. We didn’t even officially reach 30C here last week, but we’re above 25C for 12-13hrs a day and above 27C for 8-10hrs hours. That clearly doesn’t happen in early September.