model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Northwest NI]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Still hints of an improvement for me,but perhaps more towards the 2nd week... The op was a little out of kilter with those pressure rises.. So at this stage more runs needed...where have I heard that one before

Love the optimism mate. Hope your right!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Northwest NI said:

Love the optimism mate. Hope your right!

Lol mate...I felt like I was being a tad negative with that post

[Frosty.]

I mentioned earlier about the GEFS 6z mean showing tentative signs of improving longer term...and ditto the 12z mean, the reason I’m looking so far ahead is because the pros are still talking about mid August plus the second half potentially becoming more summery again, anyway, mid august will very soon be in range of the Gfs / GEFS so let’s see what transpires when we get there..and we may not have to wait that long anyway judging by some output today..the ECM 12z op for example!!!  

Edited July 25, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,...not much to add really but we could do with these charts in the winter time,...eek

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all,...not much to add really but we could do with these charts in the winter time,...eek

All out of date now Si, i think, given the op models on the 12z suite,  but we will see….

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All out of date now Si, i think, given the op models on the 12z suite,  but we will see….

They are today's anomalies Mike just updated.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

They are today's anomalies Mike just updated.

Yes si hope your well and not over stressing on the storm thread

Noaa still not onboard as yet,but long way to play out just yet...always worth remembering as well folks is not all unsettled spells bring widespread rain! The forecast for my area 3 or 4 days ago was pretty poor for the weekend..hey presto.. not even the plants got a sprinkling! That's the nature of the beast in the UK...so I'm intrigued to see how the middle to end part of the new week play out....everytime I do this raindance it stays dry..

Edited July 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes si hope your well and not over stressing on the storm thread

Noaa still not onboard as yet,but long way to play out just yet...always worth remembering as well folks is not allnunsettoed spells bring widespread rain! The forecast for my area 3 or 4 days ago was pretty poor for the weekend..hey presto.. not even the plants got a sprinkling! That's the nature of the beast in the UK...so I'm intrigued to see how the middle to end part of the new week play out....everytime I do this raindance it stays dry..

I love your post's Matt,...they cheer me up

it hasn't rained here either for yonks so having to water the garden daily,...it has been a good summer up this way and i wouldn't mind a sprinkling of the wet stuff,...it wouldn't hurt

take care mate

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

They are today's anomalies Mike just updated.

 

Still don’t buy them, Si, I know I am out on a limb on here sometimes, but I am categorically saying that by 7th August we will have an Azores ridge bringing summer to at least the south.  We will see..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Still don’t buy them, Si, I know I am out on a limb on here sometimes, but I am categorically saying that by 7th August we will have an Azores ridge bringing summer to at least the south.  We will see..

Mike i ain't gonna be getting into any debates on those noaa charts anytime soon..Mushy and Jon will be twitching there fingers,and Paul will be kicking my butt..

Fantastic forum with some great contrasting views...you've gotta love it. @Allseasons-si cheers mate,hope you get a storm or 2 before the seasons out!

Ohh and with all the talk of the next week or 2 being chatted about,let's not forget tomorrow...could be a 28c or so in the sunnier areas...enjoy it if you can.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Still don’t buy them, Si, I know I am out on a limb on here sometimes, but I am categorically saying that by 7th August we will have an Azores ridge bringing summer to at least the south.  We will see..

I am only saying what i see Mike and the anomalies don't look good for a return to settled weather but the anomalies can be wrong sometimes,like i have just mentioned^^ to @MATTWOLVES it's not been a bad summer so far and with that in mind i wouldn't mind a bit of rain,then hopefully another blast of summer as we go through August,...plenty of time

[DAVID SNOW]

Optimism and potential, the two words that fit in nicely when looking at the models in there extended range (max 14 days) and that stands no matter the season.

Anything after that, is pure guess work, and well before on many occasions, and at this time of year throw a 'random' hurricane into the North Atlantic , and this will mess up and over ride the  back ground 'signals' and all that tele stuff.

Too many variables at play at any one time, yes it's fun to guess the longer outlook, but guessing is all it is.

 

[Mike Poole]

Well having looked at all the 12z output, all bets are off,  maybe by tomorrows 12z we will see a way forward, but for now, I … actually don’t care much, if I’m totally honest.  Sorry.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Optimism and potential, the two words that fit in nicely when looking at the models in there extended range (max 14 days) and that stands no matter the season.

Anything after that, is pure guess work, and well before on many occasions, and at this time of year throw a 'random' hurricane into the North Atlantic , and this will mess up and over ride the  back ground 'signals' and all that tele stuff.

Too many variables at play at any one time, yes it's fun to guess the longer outlook, but guessing is all it is.

 

Can't really argue with that assessment David..Many a forecaster have stated anything beyond 5 days is going some in the UK..Get past 10 days and 14 onwards and it becomes increasingly difficult..its just a case of spotting potential trends,and even then it can all change with drop of an hat due too other factors coming into play..Theres very good reason the long range met update nearly always states low confidence towards the latter stages,and more especially during Spring and Summer! I've viewed the EC46 many a time to find it was Miles out with its evolution! 

[bluearmy]

There is a more optimistic eps clusters of reasonable size (in which the op sits)

just a note that the noaa cpc charts from weekends are automated naefs and have no eps (or forecaster) content 

All eyes on the 00z ec op to see if it drops greeny heights late on again.  NOAA cpc 8/14 are always derived from charts day 11 so can’t include ec op data. Would need the eps mean to change markedly for the cpc chart to look better. 
 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational, the Azores high / ridge / high pressure generally may need two or even three bites at the cherry..or maybe even four!...to try and change the pattern back to something more summery again following the unsettled and increasingly cooler spell we are about to enter. However, this is only based on the Gfs op....so

    

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[kold weather]

At least for the first week, maybe two of August I suspect we will be chasing transient ridging and we may well get a couple of days where it does come across, but the core for now always look to be focused further west which will always make it probable that eventually a LP will push down on it from the NW, especially given the type of summer season we've had for dropping LPs this summer so far.

I still don't think its as bad as some are thinking, providing the high has enough strength in it to indeed throw ridging across us at times. If it isn't then it could well go downhill badly.

[bluearmy]

Ec op drops out of the new less grim cluster.  Twenty mins till we see if the cluster has also gone ! 

[Frosty.]

Just look at that arctic air mass digging down across the far north on the ECM 0z operational..that’s just insane for the beginning of august! ... Shirley there is the potential for the first touch of frost up there, seriously, this is incredible! 

[mb018538]

No joy on the extended ecm today. GFS ensembles not much better either:

[Uncle_Barty]

Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter.

Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.

[mushymanrob]

Well there is some hope for about 2 weeks + time... but it depends upon how these charts evolve, so im speculating beyond their timeframe.

Previously id suggested that there no route to summery warmth as long as the strong Azores high was connected to the strong Greenland high by a ridge, and that pattern would need to change.

Well the latest 8-14 chart has tentetively taken a step in that direction as the latest chart suggests the GLH will weaken as will the ridge North of the Azores high.
Coupled with a possible developing vortex over Northeastern Canada/Baffin , could allow the Azores high to build Eastwards, and drift away from its current centre West of the Azores. So we could be looking at a more settled summery spell by mid August. But that is speculation, and the sequence described would need to develop from the hints this chart has (in comparison to the previous).

But for now.... it suggests after next weekend it will be cool, with a fresh North of West airflow. Thats unsettled, but no monsoon..

[Timmytour]

2 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter.

Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.

If his record on better outlooks is as good as his record on cold outlooks, I'd say  that's cause for optimism.....

meanwhile the models that didn't account for the development of a low pressure system off the beach of Florida appear to have been on the money....

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter.

Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.

Can anyone point me to a time when he's been right? 

[summer blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Can anyone point me to a time when he's been right? 

July. Just a few weeks ago he highlighted the likely warm period.

Hes correct more often than half the folk here.