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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    here you go
     

    WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

    This page displays the most recent verification of the Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Forecasts

     

    Thanks for that mushy

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I’ve not even looked at the models but given it’s gone 6pm and there isn’t a single comment on the 12z’s I don’t think I need too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    41 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I’ve not even looked at the models but given it’s gone 6pm and there isn’t a single comment on the 12z’s I don’t think I need too. 

    They aren’t a disaster at T144

    D777DAE0-018E-4DD9-A479-82C2B1C82C13.thumb.png.a9d11e68aa01ba7abb784c3e9a50c23e.png9778298E-DB14-4D4B-9194-3B8770F85928.thumb.gif.7ff2b6ddb33b7466b6269d84f6be0a73.gif1158E8C1-9DDE-420B-A217-315E724F9E49.thumb.png.506d65f26c5ef1b1c47b57c550357553.png

    Why anyone would want to look at them further ahead and make judgements on that is beyond me in summer, to be honest.  The models aren’t reliable at that timeframe in summer, and that includes the anomalies in my opinion, which are always used to predict on the 10 day period or beyond anyway.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I've seen worser ensembles. 850s ranging from 2c to 12c so nothing is nailed down yet but the overall trend is a slow downhill deterioration starting this weekend.

    ens_image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Why anyone would want to look at them further ahead and make judgements on that is beyond me in summer, to be honest.  The models aren’t reliable at that timeframe in summer, and that includes the anomalies in my opinion, which are always used to ask arguments on the 10 day period anyway.

    Strange... so its ok in winter?

    The anomalies start at t144, so you are saying they are unreliable, yet all the evidence suggests otherwise AND ive posted many instances of them being bang on well beyond t144.

    I rely on the anomalies, i blog using them as a foundation, if they were not accurate most of the time, i simply wouldnt do it! why make a fool of myself doing that?

    You dont like/dont trust/ dont understand them ?... fair play. Not every model suite is for everyone, i find them very easy to use myself.

    Day ten?.... the NOAA charts support the general pattern the current 12z has for July 31st, azores high over the azores, a strong greenland high, deep troughing tracking to our east. ..... NO ONE hopes this pattern wont come off more then me, but id suggest it will be very close to the mark.

    As for looking further ahead, well id be pleasantly surprised if the greenland high and azores high of their predicted size and strength went anywhere fast..... they usually dont. So being concerned about the first half of August at least isnt unreasonable.

    The only crumbs of comfort i can find is that a) the anomalies have only just identified that pattern so are inconsistent, b) its the 8-14 day chart which is less accurate and c) their own accuracy rating is 3/5.

    Lets hope the anomalies are having a wobble, and tonights/tomorrow nights updates DONT confirm the current forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Strange... so its ok in winter?

    The anomalies start at t144, so you are saying they are unreliable, yet all the evidence suggests otherwise AND ive posted many instances of them being bang on well beyond t144.

    I rely on the anomalies, i blog using them as a foundation, if they were not accurate most of the time, i simply wouldnt do it! why make a fool of myself doing that?

    You dont like/dont trust/ dont understand them ?... fair play. Not every model suite is for everyone, i find them very easy to use myself.

    Day ten?.... the NOAA charts support the general pattern the current 12z has for July 31st, azores high over the azores, a strong greenland high, deep troughing tracking to our east. ..... NO ONE hopes this pattern wont come off more then me, but id suggest it will be very close to the mark.

    As for looking further ahead, well id be pleasantly surprised if the greenland high and azores high of their predicted size and strength went anywhere fast..... they usually dont. So being concerned about the first half of August at least isnt unreasonable.

    The only crumbs of comfort i can find is that a) the anomalies have only just identified that pattern so are inconsistent, b) its the 8-14 day chart which is less accurate and c) their own accuracy rating is 3/5.

    Lets hope the anomalies are having a wobble, and tonights/tomorrow nights updates DONT confirm the current forecast.

    The models are more reliable in winter than summer.  

    My issue with the anomalies, is that they are based on the models I look at anyway, the ensembles anyway.  Still, I agree to differ, your posts are always informative and well thought out and often right.  But me personally once beyond FI on the op runs, I prefer to look to background signals for guidance.  

    That doesn’t mean I don’t post T240 charts of course, but as an illustration of possibilities at this stage.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Although the Gem 12z isn’t a GEM 💎...I’ve seen worse, it actually becomes quite respectable from the mid range following a cooler more showery interlude...anyway, bottom line is, it may not be such an awful period coming up which lasts until mid August!!!! 😉 ☀️ 

    CF01433B-CEF9-42AE-9CA7-B9F7A1928820.thumb.png.0bf666d057f12371f89d555ca1b3df55.png30A0E0A5-FF62-494E-9480-B7B09E5BC593.thumb.png.81dce87159785172b5deaf5dbc3d24c1.pngF2A3B284-CFD9-44A9-8447-67680112EDEA.thumb.png.ef8abbc590b0ef5df1259c5679f76fbd.pngA16E5E6E-2550-4C6B-8963-2FB34CE7F589.thumb.png.b83fbe70af4b23257506594675899c69.pngFD345CD8-D759-4AB0-91E4-C329CEA6D4F5.thumb.png.a29c1d6c6373e26c495ec0abafcb688f.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    32 minutes ago, knocker said:

    That's fine, but like the anomalies, or any chart at any level for that matter, they have to be interpreted correctly. And given the complexity of teleconnections determining which is the most pertinent regarding the upper air analysis over the Atlantic/Euro arena is not straightforward by any means. And after that the surface analysis for the UK has to be sorted. I have lost count over the years the number of timesI have seen the comment, 'the models are not picking up the signals' when in fact it is quite possible the signals are not there to be picked up. At the end of the day there is no slam dunk way of sorting the analysis many days in advance but it makes sense to make use of all the tools available because none of them are infallable

    Yep, fair point @knocker and I think it is more pertinent in summer because the background drivers are less clear than they are in winter.  Some summers are predictable, 2018 was, but most aren’t and we have to go week to week, but surely with some knowledge of the long range models too (which are hot and dry for the remainder of summer, well GloSea5 is anyway).  

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the ECM 12z operational, on the plus side, day 10 has warmer uppers than the 0z!!! 😉 👍 😱 

    562EE66E-4C69-4D2D-87F7-C6BA02DF88E7.thumb.png.22b25ba1999554ef7297b75918a4bb11.png12590A8C-B737-4DA0-8E5C-9F11AEEE957E.thumb.png.acb06bc23d8e75375061ea01f94c91fd.pngDD6E0E46-08F7-4695-9CD7-BA18F897AB0F.thumb.jpeg.f760f33bb4317fc82707edb09da31e23.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Well I'm thinking a week to ten days of more unsettled weather before a settled spell rears its head again with the AZ H pushes in. 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yep, fair point @knocker and I think it is more pertinent in summer because the background drivers are less clear than they are in winter.  Some summers are predictable, 2018 was, but most aren’t and we have to go week to week, but surely with some knowledge of the long range models too (which are hot and dry for the remainder of summer, well GloSea5 is anyway).  

    But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence.. 

    Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy .. 

     

    Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence.. 

    Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy .. 

     

    Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer

    Usually in the NH winter (not last year, which was weird) as I’m sure you know, our weather pattern is driven by the trop polar vortex, which is in turn driven by the strat polar vortex.  Summer is different because that driver isn’t there, which is why summer patterns are less predicable, highs and lows just drift about unless there is something like 2018 which is unusual.  

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Back to the future tonight or rather the T+240 charts from the 12z suite.

    500 charts for Saturday July 31st - ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control

    image.thumb.png.13ffbca4512de5a9d9ae6f5d8db76804.pngimage.thumb.png.127b84db8cf2cc0fc5e1a255b4594f43.pngimage.thumb.png.099e8a37bb0a13c57da157d5dd4780e2.pngimage.thumb.png.d0338dc50b233e7ebade6bcabfa8f538.pngimage.thumb.png.ea4cae6b61bd2e5c68949024d63cd08c.png

    Nothing terribly inspiring if you're after heat. To be fair, could be very warm across southern areas on GEM but that's about it.

    The big message tonight is northern blocking - significant heights over Greenland (a theme GEM has had for a few days but now being picked up by other models). 

    This forces the jet back south towards the British Isles and keeps the Azores HP largely suppressed though ECM and especially JMA try to keep the Azores HP more influential.  The problem is the trough sits either between the heights or develops to the east close to northern Britain or the North Sea. The net effect is to introduce cool and unsettled conditions for the time of year from the west or north west. 

    Moving on - GFS Control and OP with jet stream profile at T+360 (August 5th)

    image.thumb.png.8267aa2c476e91f45b799f9cebdb0c91.pngimage.thumb.png.0e2e4898977637b293a1b2f69de57882.pngimage.thumb.png.d537551b6596611531503e6817c6b35d.png

    This illustrates the impact of strong northern blocking in August - Control is particularly stark but OP shows the troughs running round the top of the Azores HP but, thanks to the heights to the north, being forced across the British Isles on a jet more akin to winter than spring in terms of being oriented well to the south of where you'd expect.

    These are poor charts for early August if I'm being honest - they won't verify as they stand but the point is they show a general direction of travel based on strong northern blocking which isn't going to lend itself to summer-like conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence.. 

    Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy .. 

     

    Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer

    A big reason for less accuracy is the lack of strat polar vortex in the summer. This is replaced by weak negative u winds in mid  strat which turn positive the lower that one descends. Strong positive strat u winds in winter give a very reliable indicator of trop conditions at medium range. Probably the most reliable winter teleconnection.

    Anyway, is Svalbard on a red or Amber list, because looking at the ECM 850’s at day 10 this could be a lovely spot for a warm holiday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
    5 hours ago, Frigid said:

    Been a while since we've seen an ensemble graph like this. 

    1905513528_ens_image(5).thumb.png.31b9b736b7797806e41dd93da1535fc4.png

    I'm usually an optimist, but GFS & GEM are painting a miserable picture for the start of the school holidays and beyond. 🌧️🌧️🌧️

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Some I know seem to think we're at the start of a long hot summer ... they might be a bit disappointed in the next two weeks. ECM clusters last night strongly favour trough anomalies to our east as August comes, preventing the usual Euro heat factory, and it's much harder to get a week like the one we're having from mid-August onwards. However, not saying there couldn't be pleasant weather based upon these - just unlikely to be hot.

    Screenshot_20210722-071440.thumb.png.be890c4e0cbf39634d9c59aca84ae343.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    31 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Some I know seem to think we're at the start of a long hot summer ... they might be a bit disappointed in the next two weeks. ECM clusters last night strongly favour trough anomalies to our east as August comes, preventing the usual Euro heat factory, and it's much harder to get a week like the one we're having from mid-August onwards. However, not saying there couldn't be pleasant weather based upon these - just unlikely to be hot.

    Screenshot_20210722-071440.thumb.png.be890c4e0cbf39634d9c59aca84ae343.png

     

    Looks pretty terrible to be honest. Next week looks very unsettled.

    GFS goes full blown low

    image.thumb.png.681afad385ecf28c0c46a5862cebe00c.png

    UKMO looking pretty unsettled too....also looks quite cool with suppressed 850 temps. Upper cold pool and trough with strong solar heating at this time of year just means torrential downpours.

    image.thumb.png.9f0f50bcd1f2d75c1d31c8b55691936b.pngimage.thumb.png.0c25662ff9d4f48f20375032686262a1.pngimage.thumb.png.05705fde2ce353f3c27eb2873c2bebf9.png


    All of NW Europe ends up trough dominated by next weekend, with a big Arctic/Greenland linked high. Cool and unsettled to dominate.

    image.thumb.png.5e6789b556a9b8fba67e67b9021f4e1c.pngimage.thumb.png.991ddf54e42917787b3a1450f085bfb0.png

     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Nothing to add to the above, I’m sure the usual suspects will attempt to turd polish. A typically disappointing beginning the late summer period in modern times. Slow moving frontal rain, low sunshine amounts and localised flooding from heavy showers looks like the way of majority of next two weeks post this weekend, anomalies and pretty much all the standard model output along with their ensembles support this. Any settled activity before the 3/4th August would be highly surprising. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.cbd2c080b1c2b400a521a5e2c8cd3695.png

    Not much to say - other than I've rotated this chart by 90 degrees to make it easier to view for the UK 😁

    Probably the only 90 degrees we're likely to see any time soon....looking pants now well into the first week of August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.cbd2c080b1c2b400a521a5e2c8cd3695.png

    Not much to say - other than I've rotated this chart by 90 degrees to make it easier to view for the UK 😁

    Probably the only 90 degrees we're likely to see any time soon....looking pants now well into the first week of August.

    Yes, looks like going down hill fairly rapidly next week, almost Autumnal .Think one of our Scandinavian posters mentioned a couple of weeks ago that they are expecting a very cool August in Northern Europe, especially in Norway and Sweden as the cold air locked up wind in the Arctic for much of the summer is finally released.  He may have been questioned by a few posters at the time but maybe he was on to something. We will soon find out. If correct , good call sir.

     C

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Until something better shows up in the models, it's really going to be a case of 'which one looks least wet' next week, and 'which one looks least cool' beyond that. If we're going to get lumbered with a Scandi trough, I just hope we can pull something like this out of the bag:

    NOAA_1_2005080806_1.png

    Major difference here, of course, being a trough to the west of Iberia, rather than a suppressed AH. Although on the cool side at night at times, August 2005 was at least dry and sunny for the most part, and became warmer in the middle two weeks with a heatwave at the end.

    Given the time of year, I'm continuing to train myself to not take anything further than a week ahead too seriously. Can't help but want to see something promising in FI though...

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Best not to post my anomaly update in here as it will only increase the gloom!

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