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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM and UKMO at T144:

    01BDF862-2D31-4C72-8C55-345110358238.thumb.gif.b59efb76fd181254caff84c0e84a3fbe.gifBF25F665-8CBC-418D-9804-F28BEB7A0A25.thumb.gif.2272b636e2d1bf8751d7647d46034f9a.gif

    If anything the ECM pushing further north with the ridge, I think this run is going to be a good one, with a return to settled conditions, although not as hot, fairly quickly after the weekend breakdown.  Despite what the naysayers say.  I’d be backing UKMO, ECM combo here at this range.  

    Edit, then a little feature deepens at T168 and ruins it.  Not there on UKMO.

    7B4AA0A9-0E0B-46A7-A926-B16AC9105375.thumb.gif.7f77fb9e5e4143cc96d0603148cabda3.gif

    Not massively surprising really. Nothing really supporting a quick rebuild of high pressure. I notice the met office have now dropped their settled conditions returning in early august from their long range forecast too….no idea why that was even in there to be honest. Nothing really supported it, and I was quite surprised to read it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM and UKMO at T144:

    01BDF862-2D31-4C72-8C55-345110358238.thumb.gif.b59efb76fd181254caff84c0e84a3fbe.gifBF25F665-8CBC-418D-9804-F28BEB7A0A25.thumb.gif.2272b636e2d1bf8751d7647d46034f9a.gif

    If anything the ECM pushing further north with the ridge, I think this run is going to be a good one, with a return to settled conditions, although not as hot, fairly quickly after the weekend breakdown.  Despite what the naysayers say.  I’d be backing UKMO, ECM combo here at this range.  

    Edit, then a little feature deepens at T168 and ruins it.  Not there on UKMO.

    7B4AA0A9-0E0B-46A7-A926-B16AC9105375.thumb.gif.7f77fb9e5e4143cc96d0603148cabda3.gif

    Mike...why is it as soon as GFS shows some unsettled conditions,some are out in force to ridicule the conditions and how poor its going to become! Regardless of those Heights being more suppressed towards the SW this Summer and kind of encouraging troughs to develop there, we are having an exceptional week of weather! And many further North have had some lovely conditions during June as well..

    Like you point out tonight's UKMO and now ECM are perhaps showing only a brief spell of unsettled conditions,but unless GFS shows it,for some it simply does not matter! Amazingly when Winter comes we will have many saying ignore the GFS......and any cold snap won't be happening unless UKMO and ECM are onboard! 

    Personally I'm feeling positive for a good chunk of August also...and I will certainly not be joining the ohhhh its August...its always unsettled...or it always goes wrong when the kids main Holidays are due...im pretty sure the weather as no preferences to what prior engagements are due during any particular time of the month...it simply does what it wants to do. But encouraging perhaps from the met model and the Euro one this evening..Hopefully the mean will back this up.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I think the key difference between UKMO and ECM at T144 was this feature:

    564F3FF0-49C7-4685-AF5E-24D1FBC8FB81.thumb.jpeg.a9383399c341d9e790785dc8e3df2668.jpegEBE44C09-0C6F-4715-9781-D112D6718D73.thumb.jpeg.d9487752f3d00fe6e8847b947ba82c47.jpeg

    ECM makes much more of it and it goes on to stick us in a trough again. UKMO doesn’t. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    As the thunder rumbles in the distance, how are the 12Z models seeing the end of the month? I thought last night's ECM had some favourable hints for fans of heat but let's see where tonight's T+192 (for a change) charts leave us:

    500s for early afternoon next Wednesday, the 28th from GFS OP, GFS Control, ECM, GEM and JMA

    image.thumb.png.53944c8fd69b17e27c83cc5afd01e924.pngimage.thumb.png.b2e7826306659e5e17199d77d44421e4.pngimage.thumb.png.c83f27150b52a8e5b15e22bbdbbeb618.pngimage.thumb.png.444f78dbe8e2f894b972aa6db76415c1.pngimage.thumb.png.41878a6a67333fd653f555f46b6d1950.png

    It's not hugely inspiring if I'm being honest. All the models have LP approaching from the Atlantic and a weak ridge declining SE in front of it. GFS (not surprisingly) makes most of the LP with quite an intense little feature for the time of year between Iceland and Scotland. Other models got for a shallower feature further south (both GFS Control and JMA hint at more settled conditions hanging on further south).

    The GFS models offer little moving into August with the Azores HP aligning unfavourably in the Atlantic and allowing weak areas of LP to move down from the NW across the British Isles and NW Europe.

    Onto T+240 for the other models: - GEM, JMA and ECM

    image.thumb.png.d81620d6cebe2a682a6e23d3a5c403c2.pngimage.thumb.png.9569c81113301f7a5bc6532c6489826a.pngimage.thumb.png.e122974d909694e578a6bc0efd465298.png

    They all look pretty ugly for fans of summer with LP close to the British Isles and GEM offers a northern blocking scenario what wouldn't be out of place in April after an SSW. The Azores HP has gone, the jet is heading south and it all looks poor for fans of summer.

    ECM is the best of a bad bunch with the ridging across NW Scotland which again hints at heights to the north.

    This current hot spell has done better than I thought but the writing looks on the wall for southern parts by Friday with LP moving into the Channel and an increasing risk of heavy showers and storms. We mustn't of course forget it's been a much better summer for parts north and west and the heat looks set to continue there for a little longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Mike...why is it as soon as GFS shows some unsettled conditions,some are out in force to ridicule the conditions and how poor its going to become! Regardless of those Heights being more suppressed towards the SW this Summer and kind of encouraging troughs to develop there, we are having an exceptional week of weather! And many further North have had some lovely conditions during June as well..

    Like you point out tonight's UKMO and now ECM are perhaps showing only a brief spell of unsettled conditions,but unless GFS shows it,for some it simply does not matter! Amazingly when Winter comes we will have many saying ignore the GFS......and any cold snap won't be happening unless UKMO and ECM are onboard! 

    Personally I'm feeling positive for a good chunk of August also...and I will certainly not be joining the ohhhh its August...its always unsettled...or it always goes wrong when the kids main Holidays are due...im pretty sure the weather as no preferences to what prior engagements are due during any particular time of the month...it simply does what it wants to do. But encouraging perhaps from the met model and the Euro one this evening..Hopefully the mean will back this up.

     

    Yes, Matt, i don’t know, the GFS gets more air time for a number of reasons, 4 times a day, all data freely available, it is behind most weather apps because it is free. You kind of have to be a bit of a nerd to seek out the UKMO and ECM, which fortunately I am.  

    But you’ve also got to remember that the models are poorest at this time of year, so FI is T120 at best.  I still have hope based on UKMO 12z that the settled spell will continue past the weekend breakdown, others don’t seem so sure…we will see…

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM and UKMO at T144:

    01BDF862-2D31-4C72-8C55-345110358238.thumb.gif.b59efb76fd181254caff84c0e84a3fbe.gifBF25F665-8CBC-418D-9804-F28BEB7A0A25.thumb.gif.2272b636e2d1bf8751d7647d46034f9a.gif

    If anything the ECM pushing further north with the ridge, I think this run is going to be a good one, with a return to settled conditions, although not as hot, fairly quickly after the weekend breakdown.  Despite what the naysayers say.  I’d be backing UKMO, ECM combo here at this range.  

    Edit, then a little feature deepens at T168 and ruins it.  Not there on UKMO.

    7B4AA0A9-0E0B-46A7-A926-B16AC9105375.thumb.gif.7f77fb9e5e4143cc96d0603148cabda3.gif

    Id like to get Tamara's view on all this. ! Its looking like a dogs breakfast of a summer apart from being very lucky with a 7 day hot spell.  Is La Nina to blame for what is going to be a washout summer after Friday pm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    According to the GEFS 12z mean, early August indicates a gradual improvement as we start to see an increasing number of nicer perturbations bringing potential for summery conditions to return following a cooler more changeable / unsettled spell! ☀️ 

    78E16028-480F-4E70-B2BF-D0E91EDF83E4.thumb.png.30b8b36121fc936c7e2ca0f72cebcb4a.png43AA6A1C-AA23-47A5-8383-B51C2E349CBF.thumb.png.f79e9530199a7949cd63e6c67fe48941.png4FF5CE75-03C9-49F8-8F6B-92A3098D5A14.thumb.png.d05551afcb39d432b1c8057a5a19310c.png7112AD00-65E8-4688-AE82-DC00F017E69E.thumb.png.9e4756b257b844462f518eae8cf1af9f.pngBF6D2019-85DA-4CB5-9688-7491313F6600.thumb.png.283ee0cf108add712015b4d78b3822c7.png68D8D500-4653-4600-B4A9-11B5FA906158.thumb.png.b0f7f11f2898b7f1b2a3f5ac50b934e7.png65761C22-4758-4397-A08C-262EAD72F01E.thumb.png.df761f8ab5efd218391255084c45e3a6.pngD52EBB08-81AF-4F66-BFEE-6B7A925326D8.thumb.png.272da0023fa64a73143b58adf66c8993.pngB7DEE79B-8443-413D-8F09-79359AE1D835.thumb.png.93c07276abb7118023aa2bf533a55b74.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Shelf cloud moving over...

    Apologies: this should have gone in the storm thread...in my exitement posted it in this one by mistake....

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Posted (edited)
    11 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    Id like to get Tamara's view on all this. ! Its looking like a dogs breakfast of a summer apart from being very lucky with a 7 day hot spell.  Is La Nina to blame for what is going to be a washout summer after Friday pm. 

    Tamara as updated recently and pointed out more or less the situation we find ourselves in! Wax and wane of the Azore High with fine settled spells interspersed with less settled conditions...To say its been a dogs Breakfast of a Summer is a little misleading....especially to those areas that have had hardly any rain at all!

    Anyway my Dog has a breakfast fit for a king...so I really can't agree with that final part of your post 🤣

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I tell you what guys and gals...its not a bad mean from ECM tonight...certainly not a washout...dare I say it...settled conditions returning.

    EDM1-96.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    This post will go down like a lead balloon filled with lead...

    This chart is pretty dreadful, large high over Greenland, Southerly tracking jet, Low to our East... 

    2012 returns.....

    814day.03.gif

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    To move discussion on..
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    This post will go down like a lead balloon filled with lead...

    This chart is pretty dreadful, large high over Greenland, Southerly tracking jet, Low to our East... its about as bad as it gets..

    2012 returns.....

    814day.03.gif

    It would do if I believed the anomaly charts were gospel…but I don’t.  Looking at ECM clusters, there’s only one to T240 so no point posting chart.  Massive uncertainty is what is ahead after this weekend…that is what the anomaly chart is reflecting, averaged over everything it can be averaged over, of course.  

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    Edited quote to move discussion on..
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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    This post will go down like a lead balloon filled with lead...

    This chart is pretty dreadful, large high over Greenland, Southerly tracking jet, Low to our East... 

    2012 returns.....

    814day.03.gif

    I'm sure the accuracy of these anomalies is about the same as the model output at 8+ days range so nothing to be overly concerned about just yet. There does seem to be a rather grim pattern emerging in the mid/long range output just hope they are wide of the mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    8 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    I'm sure the accuracy of these anomalies is about the same as the model output at 8+ days range so nothing to be overly concerned about just yet. There does seem to be a rather grim pattern emerging in the mid/long range output just hope they are wide of the mark.

    Not at all, the 6-10 has an accuracy around 70-75% AT 500 mb. Way ahead of the synoptic models at 500 mb I think you would find if you did a test over several months.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It would do if I believed the anomaly charts were gospel…but I don’t.  Looking at ECM clusters, there’s only one to T240 so no point posting chart.  Massive uncertainty is what is ahead after this weekend…that is what the anomaly chart is reflecting, averaged over everything it can be averaged over, of course.  

     Oh they arent gospel, but more often than not they are closer to the final solution than not.  Its not what i want to see either..

    8 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    I'm sure the accuracy of these anomalies is about the same as the model output at 8+ days range so nothing to be overly concerned about just yet. There does seem to be a rather grim pattern emerging in the mid/long range output just hope they are wide of the mark.

    No they arent, they are far better.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Not sure if this will bring any comfort but how was the weather towards the end of July 2003 after a hot spell similar to this one in the mid July period? Didn't it all go dogs breakfast for a couple of weeks before Summer returning in the first week of August? 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Not sure if this will bring any comfort but how was the weather towards the end of July 2003 after a hot spell similar to this one in the mid July period? Didn't it all go dogs breakfast for a couple of weeks before Summer returning in the first week of August? 

    Yes it did... but after the first few days of August....

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

     Oh they arent gospel, but more often than not they are closer to the final solution than not.  Its not what i want to see either..

    No they arent, they are far better.

    I'll take your word for that 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    I'll take your word for that 

    I took @johnholmes word for it , its wise to listen to experience , ive found it to be true... so much i blog about it, thats how confident i am at their accuracy at picking out the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing plus the mean upper flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    46 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I tell you what guys and gals...its not a bad mean from ECM tonight...certainly not a washout...dare I say it...settled conditions returning.

    EDM1-96.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    Mean flow on all those charts except first one which is cyclonic is either north westerly or westerly - atlantic influenced.

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    Differences between the main models in timing, location and intensity of the rain for Friday / Saturday and some heavy 24 hour rainfall totals in places peaking at various times in different locations on Saturday.

    GEM 12z, 24 hours to 4pm Saturday : 30-35mm clipping the south coast of Cornwall and Devon.

    B333CAD4-2D58-454C-AC3A-04E37704EF87.thumb.png.b7267d2b1dc68b068b5a765093ed5524.png

     

    GFS 12z, 24 hours to 9pm Saturday : 30-35mm off the coast of Cornwall and Devon and over parts of southwest Wales

    DBECC577-93C0-4835-99B0-FDA0734E368E.thumb.png.d457cec136c3258eb19339d6fe4ea6ae.png


    ECM 12z, 24 hours to 4pm Saturday : 60-70mm over the tip of Cornwall, a potentially quite severe outcome.

    01EDEF32-07C6-49B8-B501-3CA2561E0E7C.thumb.png.71179b47b6c754723f33e760b6a9aaf5.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    44 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    I took @johnholmes word for it , its wise to listen to experience , ive found it to be true... so much i blog about it, thats how confident i am at their accuracy at picking out the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing plus the mean upper flow.

    What I can't get my head around though mush is sometimes you can read the met update and there forecast can differ so much from those Noaa charts...so I would assume there is much more of a blend being used when they issue the updates! 

    Don't panic guys, I'm going for sunshine and some showers next week and still on the warm side...at least you should be able to sleep more comfortably...tell you what I feel like a melting mannequin here...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Credit to Matt Hugo’s Twitter feed which you should all check out.

    Essentially it does not mean that we will have a 2014 horror of an August but the latest Euro tropical convention forecast shows the trades dominating the Pacific east of the dateline throughout August and a standing wave in the Indian Ocean. Not a typically good background signal.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    What I can't get my head around though mush is sometimes you can read the met update and there forecast can differ so much from those Noaa charts...so I would assume there is much more of a blend being used when they issue the updates! 

    Don't panic guys, I'm going for sunshine and some showers next week and still on the warm side...at least you should be able to sleep more comfortably...tell you what I feel like a melting mannequin here...

     

    Each to their own, whatever works for you is the best 🙂

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