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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    14 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

    Does anyone know how the ECM is looking this evening?

     

    239EFC91-C04D-4A40-9607-CFEE1A865A92.gif

    05771037-D691-4C06-BA49-969E515AAFA6.gif

    853B3D05-6706-4B1C-B7D5-63D3378945F4.gif

    400F824D-5C5C-4615-B4D8-1E0959E4112E.gif
    sorry charts are jumbled unfortunately and I can't get them to align .

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Oddly enough, heat fans should like the look of ECM.

    The 850 at T+240 - the question is whether the LP can stay to the west or sink south rather than shift east or south-east. If the former, the plume may just clip SE England.

    image.thumb.png.6f06eddab940c2d95f86c7a8092d5c13.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    11 hours ago, carinthian said:

    That forecast low/trough shown in 7 days time (ecmop) getting uncomfortably close to the flood damaged regions of NW Germany and Benelux's. Lets hope it tracks into the North Sea rather than forms another slow moving cut off upper low. Think this development is going to be watched very carefully in Euroland. Rainfall predictions are nay imposssible that far out.

     C

    ECMOPME00_168_1.png

    Worryingly, ECM overview picture continues to show potential for more heavy downpours' for the recent flooded locations of NW Germany and the Benelux. Whether the Upper Low becomes slow moving again or passes on at a quicker pace will be the forecasters dilemma . The build up of heat ahead of the cooler uppers has the potential for localised storms or downpours. Lets hope not as widespread or slow moving as the previous rainfall in that region.

    C

    overview_20210719_12_192.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like another one of these trundling low pressure systems that we’ve seen so often this spring and summer over the weekend and early next week. Hopefully we will be spared the worst of slow moving torrential rain!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    image.thumb.png.c686a42baf79eb60b10610a2e087928b.png
     

    This would be a reasonable outcome - might get more of a thundery breakdown than the soggy easterly band of rain effort progged for this weekend... just don’t expect it to come to pass exactly like that. Nevertheless, it’s good to see the op toying with the idea of avoiding full blown Greenland heights. The JMA shows how ugly things could get in this setup:

    image.thumb.gif.fbda17d39843345fc5568b6c51f237bd.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I’m finding the longer term GEFS 12z mean vexing.. 🤔...never used that word on here before...however, being the optimist that I am, I’m hoping these GEFS 12z members are showing the way forward into August! 😉 ☀️ 🥵 

    E4707DE3-8E23-4227-AAEF-8D1AC327D827.thumb.png.805672da03bacdc40a73816b786c49eb.png6F4D5ACB-2540-4F65-B0D2-8A62CA76B433.thumb.png.103338dde14520581a80f05c31acd0de.pngA5BD49EC-8F20-4221-9F5E-A81E46F198D7.thumb.png.54842392e32c810d27a4829c07f48e47.pngE3BD4B3B-837D-415E-921C-FA0DD20B1FA0.thumb.png.f75ebedc6f849d7aa885625c44a7b02f.png

    Im a pessimist and all the charts today are showing very high levels of rainfall accumulating over the next 16 days with averages of 50mm to 100mm across most of England and Wales and much colder weather (almost autumn like). The end of summer comes on Friday night. 

    ECMWF_240_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_210_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_174_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_150_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    GFS_192_UKD0_APC.png

    Edited by NApplewhite
    Add charts
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z ensembles look (and I haven't use these words before!) nae bad!😁

    t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    Im a pessimist and all the charts today are showing very high levels of rainfall accumulating over the next 16 days with averages of 50mm to 100mm across most of England and Wales and much colder weather (almost autumn like). The end of summer comes on Friday night. 

    ECMWF_240_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_210_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_174_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_150_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    GFS_192_UKD0_APC.png

    Germany also to be hit my heavy rain over the next 10 days

    ECMWF_240_DE_APC_en-GB_en.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
    13 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    Im a pessimist and all the charts today are showing very high levels of rainfall accumulating over the next 16 days with averages of 50mm to 100mm across most of England and Wales and much colder weather (almost autumn like). The end of summer comes on Friday night. 

    ECMWF_240_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_210_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_174_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_150_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    GFS_192_UKD0_APC.png

    Indeed, next week could well receive lots of rainfall, no charts to post but some places next week will get a months worth of rain, 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    39 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    Im a pessimist and all the charts today are showing very high levels of rainfall accumulating over the next 16 days with averages of 50mm to 100mm across most of England and Wales and much colder weather (almost autumn like). The end of summer comes on Friday night. 

    ECMWF_240_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_210_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_174_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    ECMWF_150_GB_G50_en-GB_en.png

    GFS_192_UKD0_APC.png

    Certainly won't be cold in the slightest...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Indeed, next week could well receive lots of rainfall, no charts to post but some places next week will get a months worth of rain, 

    On top of the 4months rain we’ve already had this summer! Great! Ps that’s not a sarcy comment that is a factual statement! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    On top of the 4months rain we’ve already had this summer! Great! Ps that’s not a sarcy comment that is a factual statement! 

    4 out of the last 5 months in Dublin have been notably drier than average. And the annual LTA rainfall for Dublin airport is 757 mm. Seems southern England is having a extraordinarily poor summer as I’ve noticed your posts are depicting a desperately depressing summer for you. Just curious if you might move to the Mediterranean 🤔 to cheer yourself up. Most be very difficult for you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Indeed, next week could well receive lots of rainfall, no charts to post but some places next week will get a months worth of rain, 

    Its been the theme of recent months, very dry spells followed by very wet spells.. back to dry then wet, can't remember a year when we've had so many slow moving weather patterns.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    And are people really believing rainfall charts which are often wrong at 24 hours away?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    And are people really believing rainfall charts which are often wrong at 24 hours away?

    it looks like they are! ECM did this a couple of weekends back and we had no rain at all

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

    it looks like they are! ECM did this a couple of weekends back and we had no rain at all

    True - this place is great, but it’s frustrating that some people never learn from past experience!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    And are people really believing rainfall charts which are often wrong at 24 hours away?

    They are just a thread of the particular model run they come from. Their accuracy obviously over 10 days is pants

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the Gfs 0z operational, following a somewhat more unsettled period from the weekend and into the last days of July, early august sees a return of largely settled and increasingly warmer conditions once again.... I think this would be a decent result, we can’t expect constant very warm / hot and sunny in a u k summer...can we? 🤔 😉 

    E5746C18-BA2B-45C2-B44F-34F822317C53.thumb.png.11b065e04ca8edb8d2fe8552f2b71b3e.pngD5598021-B0F5-4DDE-91D3-C2E4D0F93D3F.thumb.png.e93f730be42a27f481c5efb63b034223.pngB59A421E-E7BE-47C0-BD05-32E7DFA1C818.thumb.png.a97980632f3e312dce9b718ee048812b.pngFBC06F9E-ED30-47AA-8331-2E1227DB16F2.thumb.png.1c5deb1fbc76da9b33df774bdca835ad.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    GFSOPUK00_384_18.png

    Rainfall figures for Scotland this summer so far is 75mm up to 18th July

    The Scottish June rainfall average is 82mm.

    Could it be a summer where Scotland is drier than SE England?  (75mm to 138mm thus far)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The outlook is a bit wishy-washy this morning. 

    Some areas in the south are likely to be quite wet through the weekend with the slow moving low. Exactly where to hard to tell at this stage.

    Once it clears we're sort of in a no mans land early next week. In between everything. No washout though with low pressure out of the way to the NW - sunshine and showers likely with pressure and low-ish heights. This carries on through the week really.

    image.thumb.png.ab366d65c4090dec55912be2ca938097.pngimage.thumb.png.d6c7cd8e3208c7712316adcb9a55c1be.pngimage.thumb.png.b18d65c9d3e8bc62dd9e965ae267eb59.png



    GFS goes settled again into August, but way too far into the yonder to take seriously at the moment

    image.thumb.png.2e32c5cf6f4793aa8dce5bb0efa6b5a6.pngimage.thumb.png.87c06ce9dfa92a0541f4791ddba1dbe9.pngimage.thumb.png.a938f58d95938fb090a089fa8d942873.png
     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    13 hours ago, Dominic Carey said:

    Does anyone know how the ECM is looking this evening?

    You asked the same question about the GFS 06z. Is there any reason why you can't look yourself?

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    You know I love a good thunderstorm by now so I will continue to look at the charts for Friday into Saturday.

    image.thumb.png.aa589f40f5708abc5282e11ec6799d49.pngimage.thumb.png.b73eef1d35422db252ed05a73fd8165e.pngimage.thumb.png.36f657570ca1a5ba17d7b7cd83142b1a.pngimage.thumb.png.3e7b92a35b9e4a9286b8adecafdadb01.png

    You can see the CAPE building up those elevated storms to the East which will probably be another Kent clipper IF the models shift it East however we are pretty close now.

    One thing to keep an eye-on elsewhere is this at 3am.

    image.thumb.png.5c3ddeb4201a0f52e03d3f0a58956185.png

    Will update more soon

    Edit

    Love what Windy.com does with this as it approaches, imagine.

    image.thumb.png.39b88952558256ce92d2b0d6cd732f59.png

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    45 minutes ago, Monkeypants said:

    maybe he can see the charts but doesn't really understand enough to break them down, so enjoys the commentating and breaking down of the charts by others here in forum?

    That is a fair point, but the question didn't seem to be worded like that.

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