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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The arpege run is super impressive. 4 straight nights with 20C mins here, in fact has similar for parts of the midlands and south west. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The arpege run is super impressive. 4 straight nights with 20C mins here, in fact has similar for parts of the midlands and south west. 

    Impressive, but even as a summer lover it's probably my least favourite bit of a heatwave. Once nights start getting into the high teens or even tropical at above 20c you really notice it, with UK houses built to store and retain heat etc. Usually a fan on full blast does the trick for me. No point buying A/C for the 2 weeks of hot weather you'd actually need it for per year in most summers in the UK!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The longer term GEFS 12z is currently in turmoil, there are quite a lot of, dare I say unseasonably cool autumnal / unsettled charts but there are a few hints of the rinse and repeat summery pattern too from the end of July and into early August!..my hope is that August will bring more of the current conditions and the cool autumnal crap can wait until sept / oct! 😉 

    AC7B6967-BE87-4EA2-8C96-E64017A79ABC.thumb.png.50bcc38464861b40235fd0fed57b6270.pngEC530868-C18C-42E9-A08A-BC849A530ADE.thumb.png.adf010248798b6369bdd3c1b14aef6bc.pngB0D45A09-ED92-4B76-8EF5-232DBB2892D5.thumb.png.260ed5f26de1efed6f95cd42c9579fba.png2CA69578-750F-48F6-AD0C-49C28C141DB6.thumb.png.168c989dc1c85c01ed0e29156ab5bfab.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM at T168:

    A054699F-27AC-48F5-AA44-68F06CE78947.thumb.gif.cc1f6c4c4be8cb7bad10f6c39cbb7df0.gif

    Will this one ridge over the top?  The little low 500 miles west of Ireland might have a say in that, but the UK low looks less deep here.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Oh dear!

    44F2B4DC-BCF7-4C24-82A5-FC8726E9889A.thumb.gif.a40ded8bd44c4f21320fca105dce3acb.gif

    Not a bad chart!!if that trough can drop direct south in the atlantic then we remain very warm humid and dry!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    27 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Not a bad chart!!if that trough can drop direct south in the atlantic then we remain very warm humid and dry!!

    Yes Shaky...that Low could very easily drop bringing us another plume...I think over the next few days we are going to be seeing the ops doing there normal thing..(ie) throwing out numerous scenarios...im still thinking a brief blip before an improvement from the SW towards months end....perhaps more of a SW/NE split as well...did you notice how I went against the traditional NW/SE split? It's simply not fair to keep leaving those guys out...😉

    Ensembles remain warm regarding 850s..some spread again on the pressure patterns...but for sure...indications of a trend downwards...long way off though,and I'm pretty sure things will be looking different again come 48hrs..🤟

    graphe1_00_268_123___.png

    graphe0_00_268_123___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Yes Shaky...that Low could very easily drop bringing us another plume...I think over the next few days we are going to be seeing the ops doing there normal thing..(ie) throwing out numerous scenarios...im still thinking a brief blip before an improvement from the SW towards months end....perhaps more of a SW/NE split as well...did you notice how I went against the traditional NW/SE split? It's simply not fair to keep leaving those guys out...😉

    Ensembles remain warm regarding 850s..some spread again on the pressure patterns...but for sure...indications of a trend downwards...long way off though,and I'm pretty sure things will be looking different again come 48hrs..🤟

    graphe1_00_268_123___.png

    graphe0_00_268_123___.png

    Nice to be on the right side of a NW/SE split this summer. Don’t remember it ever being so pronounced in the NW favour. Might never see it again 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    There’s quite a lot to like about the cfs 6z during august, plenty of high pressure and very warm / hot at times...that would suit me sir! 😉 ☀️ 🔥 😎 

    F201EE0F-89D7-4C17-B208-4B7EF09AB9D4.thumb.png.de90e55001cb94148a28fb35fe924b46.png6E4D2D53-90C0-4345-A5D6-3405731D9BC7.thumb.png.e451e4b27cf4db6632b4830705e7b709.pngEA05751F-45E2-44FE-BFD9-D751AF4B52BC.thumb.png.32aaec445eda602fc9b733f006c7ed62.pngE56D5CFC-E5BE-4612-BCA3-4EA8C44D4446.thumb.png.bd66c731126fbc7f5c670b20b901eca4.pngEC684A83-4B36-4046-9BD8-C9F9C4C9B09D.thumb.png.7c412241ef08c83c352b120c561fdb6f.pngEC95E58E-7068-4A52-BFB2-34EE562CD314.thumb.png.c6ff1c0e81882bea8e6c04071a6e0af5.pngB3596F78-5DDF-4B10-AF55-27E32BCC13F8.thumb.jpeg.03b0d0c236ed0ad869e06b9121412210.jpeg

     

    Bit of desperation creeping in there Karl? Whenever the Calamity Forecasting system gets pulled out,I do begin to worry! 🤓🤣🤣

    Love ya positivety mate...keep it up and let's hope its onto something.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Bit of desperation creeping in there Karl? Whenever the Calamity Forecasting system gets pulled out,I do begin to worry! 🤓🤣🤣

    Love ya positivety mate...keep it up and let's hope its onto something.

    Yes and hence why it often gets wheeled out in the winter! 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Are the school holidays starting or something end of the coming week? Bang on cue models showing some form of breakdown, though it remains unclear how things will pan out. Could be one of those slow burners, with cloud cover for some, thundery downpours for others, or just light rain.. slow moving trough feature anchoring down on the UK in time for the weekend.

    In the meantime models showing 5 more superb summer July days if you like warmth, sunshine and dry weather. High pressure sitting on top of the UK, might be one or two rogue thundery showers but these will be isolated. A few spots could top 30 degrees or more, but in the main mid-high 20s maxima for many away from the far north and north west, bit cooler here.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Are the school holidays starting or something end of the coming week? Bang on cue models showing some form of breakdown, though it remains unclear how things will pan out. Could be one of those slow burners, with cloud cover for some, thundery downpours for others, or just light rain.. slow moving trough feature anchoring down on the UK in time for the weekend.

    In the meantime models showing 5 more superb summer July days if you like warmth, sunshine and dry weather. High pressure sitting on top of the UK, might be one or two rogue thundery showers but these will be isolated. A few spots could top 30 degrees or more, but in the main mid-high 20s maxima for many away from the far north and north west, bit cooler here.

     

    Sounds about right ref school holidays.

    Temperatures this coming week look far more bearable than the second week of August last year!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    A glorious very warm to hot day here in east London, tempered mercifully by some cloud and a refreshing breeze off the Thames Estuary this evening.

    Possibly (probably) the hottest day of the spell down here but we'll see.

    Looking ahead a few days, the "breakdown" keeps being pushed back (I'm told) so let's see what the 12Z evening output offers for the end of next week and the approach of the new month.

    T+216 tonight takes us to Tuesday July 27th:

    500s only tonight - ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP, GFS Control

    image.thumb.png.0c07613117e2670e2636c19d73991d08.pngimage.thumb.png.a823f9e75980d27a04008a4c2e477087.pngimage.thumb.png.b839f3e99368c97951b15a08ef7d6839.pngimage.thumb.png.63d544e1fb0fbff90794e96096501a7c.pngimage.thumb.png.14e2e92e9dc723983f47e9dcb910079e.png

    GFS OP and Control certainly look the best tonight for those looking for something more settled - they seem to push the evolution through quicker than the other output. OP keeps LP over Iberia and the central Med while Control keeps the deeper LP over North Africa. 

    GEM is perhaps the worst for Atlantic bias with the LP more or less on top of the British Isles though both ECM and JMA keep LP close to the north and west. 

    The latter three models are also keenest on keeping residual heights to the NE while GFS pushes those further to the east which might explain a bit more momentum in the evolution.

    NO real sign of a plume from the south though it still looks pleasantly warm (GEM wouldn't be so much). 

    Further into FI and it's fair to say, details notwithstanding, the GFS OP and Control suites tend to the unsettled with LP moving in. To be fair, the 850s on OP suggest a hot interlude at the turn of the month but that's a very long way off. In the short term, it stays better longer than I was expecting a few days later with settled conditions probably until Friday before a breakdown from the south.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    The ECM & GFS do seem to be toying with the idea of prolonging the warm weather after next weekend. Of course the sort of slack pressure systems they're showing can lead to an awful lot of rain too. Let's hope they firm up in a drier & sunnier scenario in the next few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Quick look at the 00z runs

    ARPEGE - 32c today, 33c Tuesday/Wednesday, 32c again Thursday:
    image.thumb.png.e415e288c490e108bc20a074fd710049.pngimage.thumb.png.0d94969c746fe8ea04b7df3b93732573.pngimage.thumb.png.f0c224a33880ae0144e3b6c169c8eaec.pngimage.thumb.png.e627670b607a6e5e354f10458a9a6f77.png

    Breakdown of this hot spell looks to be late Friday/Saturday. We may just squeeze one more dry and warm day in on Friday before low pressure really takes charge into next weekend. GFS below has most places dry at 6pm Friday, though the GEM has the rain already arriving into the SW into Friday afternoon:

    image.thumb.png.9415ea8839751cf1c9f85b4a69bc7ac8.pngimage.thumb.png.93f903106b647193a4c000394f460667.pngimage.thumb.png.aaae026ca96f3518132004abf2302d9d.pngimage.thumb.png.c32f24f4697e081dc324b5ccc5b7a570.png

    GEM ppn Friday:
    image.thumb.png.bf903f77bdb000222b68357a7e5228b5.pngimage.thumb.png.45fac1d3921bb3ded3664580feda4b4c.png

    Following on from this is a bit uncertain, though GFS and GEM both have northern blocking taking over by day 10.....which is never really a recipe for good UK summer weather.


    Comparing the here and now with 10 days time, you can see the marked difference in pressure distribution. Low Arctic and Greenland heights replaced with +ve ones. I'd say a more disturbed spell of weather is about to set in - though we could still get lucky and not be totally washed out if the main low pressure systems miss us on the whole.

    image.thumb.png.f4844aceaacd5ff7b2a29d0a9ab5ac43.pngimage.thumb.png.9cd4d4ba4a6fab2696c7a29bc1b7fa14.pngimage.thumb.png.4627dbd520dc145769aa63052a3f4cde.png






     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    UKV still has temperatures approaching 30’C on Friday. Thundery breakdown doesn’t occur until Friday night/Saturday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    For those who like their storms - there could be a few humdingers around this week:

    image.thumb.png.622f2112bca0def3fb319847411cd7fa.pngimage.thumb.png.55f43709f832cb0914218ae6622b2911.pngimage.thumb.png.8457ac87d59d02e61aec7765e458207e.pngimage.thumb.png.4b79a08ba67bf435dc43b65d950e68ed.png

    There is actually a lot of instability about (hence those high CAPE values) due to the heat and a small upper low. Plenty of dry air, but we could see some massive Cumulonimbus clouds going up this afternoon. If you catch one it could be nasty! Models showing some convective activity, though trying to predict exact locations is tricky:

    image.thumb.png.681d25a10f960be3e002fc58212c436e.pngimage.thumb.png.02739105429751c70ca65a4fab46ced0.png

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    That forecast low/trough shown in 7 days time (ecmop) getting uncomfortably close to the flood damaged regions of NW Germany and Benelux's. Lets hope it tracks into the North Sea rather than forms another slow moving cut off upper low. Think this development is going to be watched very carefully in Euroland. Rainfall predictions are nay imposssible that far out.

     C

    ECMOPME00_168_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    For those who like their storms - there could be a few humdingers around this week:

    image.thumb.png.622f2112bca0def3fb319847411cd7fa.pngimage.thumb.png.55f43709f832cb0914218ae6622b2911.pngimage.thumb.png.8457ac87d59d02e61aec7765e458207e.pngimage.thumb.png.4b79a08ba67bf435dc43b65d950e68ed.png

    There is actually a lot of instability about (hence those high CAPE values) due to the heat and a small upper low. Plenty of dry air, but we could see some massive Cumulonimbus clouds going up this afternoon. If you catch one it could be nasty! Models showing some convective activity, though trying to predict exact locations is tricky:

    image.thumb.png.681d25a10f960be3e002fc58212c436e.pngimage.thumb.png.02739105429751c70ca65a4fab46ced0.png

    Yes, looking at the skew-T diagram for Doncaster, although fairly dry through much of the atmosphere, IF it did 'go' then all the way to the TROP

    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

     

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    6 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

    Anyone know what the GFS 06z looks like?

    Hot this week then into weekend staying warm and even next week looks warm but not as hot as this week with much of England in the low 20c's. 

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