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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    43 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    I just can't do NAVGEM for temps after it forecast something like 45C a few years back 😂

    Sure , that's what I am alluding too , it always has until mid summer last year . But now so far isn't blowing temps up .  Until the 00run probably 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    6 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Latest AROME has London 32-33C today, and 30C on Monday too.

    I note ARPEGE pushes N Ireland back up to 31C by mid week.

    Still there this morning too.

    image.thumb.png.dda333069b873a9c5da717b0b9dcbd10.png
     

    Again the next four days should see 30c reached somewhere in the U.K. and likely for Thursday and Friday too given the current output.

    IMBY but the transformation for tomorrow is quite something. A couple of days ago the temperatures were struggling to reach average on the models, this morning’s Arpege gives a predicted maximum of 29c. It really shows how much of difference cutting out the sea breeze does.

    General outputs, not much change from the last day or so with low pressure moving in next weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looks warm right through to Saturday with hopefully a few storns moving in through Saturday  ....

    Just a little concern we might be seeing subtle signs of a jet shifting to something more uncomfortable last week of July now ,anticipated by Exeter so maybe not a huge suprise 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Whats the models looking like this morning my peeps?!any extension to the warmth to sunday or monday now?!yesterdays 12z extended it another day or two into next weekend!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Still there this morning too.

    image.thumb.png.dda333069b873a9c5da717b0b9dcbd10.png
     

    Again the next four days should see 30c reached somewhere in the U.K. and likely for Thursday and Friday too given the current output.

    IMBY but the transformation for tomorrow is quite something. A couple of days ago the temperatures were struggling to reach average on the models, this morning’s Arpege gives a predicted maximum of 29c. It really shows how much of difference cutting out the sea breeze does.

    General outputs, not much change from the last day or so with low pressure moving in next weekend.

    Any temp charts for tomorrow mate?!!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    The GFS appears to be off on one, the anomalies dont agree, but the ecm is much closer to the anomalies IMHO so with the ECM and anomalies in close agreement, then that suggests they are more likely to be closer to the solution. The GFS will change..

     

    610day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    GFS and GEM have finally agreed on a date however the differences in position have really changed what's going on with the CAPE almost like a lottery. 

    2088095607_ukcapeli(53).thumb.png.d33ad33df68f03e8cd27de239123ac97.png1037389025_gemeuw-11-138(1).thumb.png.ca0c390bcdad12e4a06e3bf107b571b3.png

    GFS positioning

    gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.ebb9ede7792c0e1592b58c69fee6bb08.png

    VS GEM Positioning

    gemnh-0-138.thumb.png.d5311c4082c0c58f4dcd1a9e3c898845.png

    So I decided to look at some more Models. 

    UKMO

    UW120-21.thumb.gif.2b486d0a060ebcde707a3062a7729141.gif

    ECMWF

    ECM1-144.thumb.gif.e1d0e7c91f905957661fc3c671c84f99.gif

    Seemingly GEM has the better positioning at the moment. 

    Xander

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, Lance M said:

    GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

    There is more model agreement as to when the fireworks should go off than there is GFS so hopefully, love a good night-time storm, plus I'll be freee from School on Tuesday 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    There is more model agreement as to when the fireworks should go off than there is GFS so hopefully, love a good night-time storm, plus I'll be freee from School on Tuesday 👍

    Didn't you say you are 57! Crikey, we could leave school at 15, when are were a lud!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Any temp charts for tomorrow mate?!!

    image.thumb.png.45706839c72e942196ddc684906447f5.png
     

    Well here is the Arpege at least. UKV more restrictive with the warmth in the east, hot in the south west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Didn't you say you are 57! Crikey, we could leave school at 15, when are were a lud!😁

    Yes well, I've aged 43 years in the last year, that's what GCSE'S do to you nowadays 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Yes well, I've aged 43 years in the last year, that's what GCSE'S do to you nowadays 😅

    For that, you can blame the GFS . . . ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

    For that, you can blame the GFS . . . ?

    You can say that reading the GFS Model, doesnt exactly brighten your day up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    26 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    image.thumb.png.45706839c72e942196ddc684906447f5.png
     

    Well here is the Arpege at least. UKV more restrictive with the warmth in the east, hot in the south west.

    Wow that a massive upgrade!got  newrly30 degrees  all the way to lincolnshire now!!madness!!🌡☀️🔥!

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    1 hour ago, Lance M said:

    GFS/ECM bring in thunderstorms to the South on Friday, but during the morning/afternoon. I prefer the timing on GEM, which slows things down enough for night time storms.

    i prefer GFS/ECM on this, i want it during the day 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Interesting how the temps for today and tomorrow for this part of the world have been hugely underestimated by the models a couple of days out.

    Have the models struggled with the surface flow and overestimated the effects of this perhaps?

    High pressure is so strong and winds so light that the breeze from the NW made very little difference to the temps yesterday here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

    Fantastic looking models, let's hope it continues for quite sometime as we in the southeast really need this from our depressing cloudy skies, which we've mostly had so far this summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    The GFS appears to be off on one, the anomalies dont agree, but the ecm is much closer to the anomalies IMHO so with the ECM and anomalies in close agreement, then that suggests they are more likely to be closer to the solution. The GFS will change..

     

    610day.03.gif

    ............. well that didnt take long did it! lol

    The 06z is now (so far) far more aligned to the ECM and anomalies..

     

    GFSOPEU06_132_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

    image.thumb.png.4e242cfc0559ff3e1bc2aeede95295ac.png

    image.thumb.png.425dcbde3c2736c8dc8b0c664abd568b.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    47 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Gfs6z certainly pushing for heavy rain/storms on Friday in the south after a very warm/hot week...

    image.thumb.png.4e242cfc0559ff3e1bc2aeede95295ac.png

    image.thumb.png.425dcbde3c2736c8dc8b0c664abd568b.png

    what do the other models say?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    A cheeky 34’C for the West Country this afternoon from the UKV 9z. We seem to achieve high temperatures (low to mid 30’s) much more easily nowadays.

    4A721DA1-2D5C-454C-8ACA-74BB96B85768.jpeg

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