model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sceuro high ...

Not very sc but more euro and displaced nw at times to cover the U.K. …

[tight isobar]

Well wait n- want has pulled me out.. @ silly season beckons ..  anyway most of us I’m sure are aware, the upper layerings are in turmoil of thoughts - @ momentum’s!!.. anyway again pumping up the raws as a start point ...  notables in a raw structure are .. that waving isn’t yet satisfied via points of influence,  by a long way to start. The nina-mirror of- are taking de- flow off at the Pacific side this term.. and that’s a bonus point for any decision of cold injection.. for the maritime part of any mid latitudes . But agreed, the upper zonal influences are not as they were!.. but still confidently there!.. for gain ... I’ve pinned the jet streaks as a plain paper plot.. going into early November.. and imo again note that pacific pain in the rear.. is being way- layed!!.. and as a plot staring point.. as a guide the GEFS 500’s are like a KId waiting for the sweetshop to open!!!.. but with a little concern.. the keeper had passed!!.. ere we go... hedge ya bets .. but we “definitely have “ better grounds than most - points at this place ... ciao - fa-now .. yes the crank is bk

Edited October 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hold fire folks,we have 6 more weeks before we should start to dribble!

Firstly there is talk of vortex disruption very shortly,this could bring colder conditions into November,but its never a given. Very early disruption could easily see the vortex become much stronger as we move towards winter proper! 

So I'm holding fire for now,as its too soon..and tbh whatever pattern we may see in the coming couple of weeks will not necessarily mean anything to what we end up with come December!

We need to keep those Heights away from Central Europe for a start,but on a plus side I'm still not seeing a strong and rampant jet,meaning any Heights setting up in the right place won't necessarily eroded by that strong Jet,especially the Northern arm.

We can see some increase in Heights towards the NW later this month.....but for now I will sit on the fence and see how this early warming plays out.

Have a fabulous evening good people.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Oooo! 00z
 

Ppn to 1200ft? Cumbria temps 4 degrees. 

[mb018538]

#

ECM shows the dreaded mild Atlantic SW'erlies coming back in again through the middle to later part of next week. Back up to the 16-18c range if that happens.

200-260mm of rain forecast over the Welsh hills in this scenario, flooding inevitable.
Hardly surprising in this kind of set up. Very warm airmass with high precipitable water. Forced up over hills and repeated deluges ensue. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECMWF 0z operational longer term there are signs it would turn colder from the nw on the cusp of November?! …not forgetting the colder snap later this week!! 

Edited October 19, 2021 by jon snow

[bluearmy]

 Confucius once said ….’in the land of the ne Canadian height rise, the west based -NAO is king ‘ ……..

The 00z gfs fi is an illustration that even with a decent NH profile, it’s never easy to get the cold to nw Europe …..

 

[SLEETY]

20 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the ECMWF 0z operational longer term there are signs it would turn colder from the nw on the cusp of November?! …not forgetting the colder snap later this week!! 

Big Northerly setting up at the end of ECM,when is the ECM ever correct at 240 hours and it plays down to Zero

[Methuselah]

Well then, thanks to the Almighty, this week's cold will be very short-lived! GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

    

But, don't panic, coldies: our time will come!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then, thanks to the Almighty, this week's cold will be very short-lived! GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

    

But, don't panic, coldies: our time will come!

The dynamics are interesting though.. as you say negative west based NAO but importantly a deep scandi trough which sends alot of cold air into Europe and no sign of a euro high. Indeed azores high is far away.. cold and cyclonic could be the outcome followed by settled cold. A long way off.. In the meantime, a grotty day ahead under a very mild air mass. A switcharound on Thursday much colder but shortlived. Weekend milder and wet again. Next week possible repeat performance of this week, not quite as mild, more notable high rainfall totals. When is late October ever settled!

[northwestsnow]

Sadly a horrendous pattern is becoming entrenched, moreso for the West of the UK ..

Mid to high teens and heavy drizzle doesn't appeal to me anytime of the year.

I suspect there was a small chance of something more seasonal in FI  in recent outputs,  alas the Euro high already flexing its muscles ...

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sadly a horrendous pattern is becoming entrenched, moreso for the West of the UK ..

Mid to high teens and heavy drizzle doesn't appeal to me anytime of the year.

I suspect there was a small chance of something more seasonal in FI  in recent outputs,  alas the Euro high already flexing its muscles ...

Reminds me of Nov 2009 when we had endless bouts of rain.. caused by trough stuck to our west. We are not thankfully in same position- but similar synoptics. 

[Frosty.]

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 alas the Euro high already flexing its muscles ...

For sure, the Atlantic is flexing its muscles also!  

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

#

ECM shows the dreaded mild Atlantic SW'erlies coming back in again through the middle to later part of next week. Back up to the 16-18c range if that happens.

200-260mm of rain forecast over the Welsh hills in this scenario, flooding inevitable.
Hardly surprising in this kind of set up. Very warm airmass with high precipitable water. Forced up over hills and repeated deluges ensue. 

 

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reminds me of Nov 2009 when we had endless bouts of rain.. caused by trough stuck to our west. We are not thankfully in same position- but similar synoptics. 

Short memories! - we need it.

Especially with Mardale Green at Haweswater being exposed not too long ago.

 

[mb018538]

45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sadly a horrendous pattern is becoming entrenched, moreso for the West of the UK ..

Mid to high teens and heavy drizzle doesn't appeal to me anytime of the year.

I suspect there was a small chance of something more seasonal in FI  in recent outputs,  alas the Euro high already flexing its muscles ...

ECM update has a bit of interest with some northern blocking showing up. Maybe a response to weakening PV?

25/10-1/11



1/11 - 8/11

Could just mean more zonal weather, but with an increased chance of some colder interludes perhaps.

[Iceaxecrampon]

7 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For sure, the Atlantic is flexing its muscles also!  

I'm a great believer in the law of the average.

Only a matter of time - whats not to like about Autumn and Samhain

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM update has a bit of interest with some northern blocking showing up. Maybe a response to weakening PV?

25/10-1/11



1/11 - 8/11

Could just mean more zonal weather, but with an increased chance of some colder interludes perhaps.

Looks potentially very wet still with the trough over the UK. Either cold cyclonic or mild cyclonic I think with high pressure to the SE we could be pulling in more mild southerlies..  if those heights to the NW could be pulled a bit further east over Greenland we would be on the colder side of the polar front. Fine margins. Potentially alot of cold polar air to tap into.. 

Edited October 19, 2021 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS 06Z is a stonker; it's somewhat akin to 1978:

    

    

    

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

For sure, the Atlantic is flexing its muscles also!  

Not massively though. There are heights to the NW and the East and the troughs are getting stuck around our latitude. The troughs are not really moving on a W-E axis into Europe. 

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not massively though. There are heights to the NW and the East and the troughs are getting stuck around our latitude. The troughs are not really moving on a W-E axis into Europe. 

Depends which models / ensembles you are looking at, some have the Atlantic flexing it’s muscles more than others!?  

[Eagle Eye]

The problem right now is the fact that the Atlantic IS intervening, I would have hoped that it would not flex its muscles  at this time but it is what it is. 

I have put here the difference on green as before in the Atlantic which is the main reason as to why we haven't got the Atlantic flowing beneath the UK and allowing room for the cooler air to push down. 

With that blocking of the low allowing the Atlantic to metaphorically shove its way in without much defence and repeat what we have just had. This won't have too much effect later on as it is a normal cycle for just before Winter so no getting too down just yet. 

Looking at the jet stream however the change could suggest a brighter future with a sudden switch in direction possibly stopping the constant Atlantic flow which is possible should it go unchecked. 

Like I said before, America will most likely have a decent impact on the weather sooner or later. Should this block more of the Atlantic pushing it down further then we can start getting excited. It is definitly going to be a slow process if this is what happens which it most likely will not be but it is still worth a look, should this happen though I can still go with my original prediction with a little change in the details but it still mainly goes with my forecast just a little bit slower. 

This is just a short written up post and by Saturday I'll have the time to write up a much more in-depth and more accurate one. 

Xander 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

50 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Depends which models / ensembles you are looking at, some have the Atlantic flexing it’s muscles more than others!?  

Nice to see somebody being optimistic. 

[damianslaw]

51 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The problem right now is the fact that the Atlantic IS intervening, I would have hoped that it would not flex its muscles  at this time but it is what it is. 

I have put here the difference on green as before in the Atlantic which is the main reason as to why we haven't got the Atlantic flowing beneath the UK and allowing room for the cooler air to push down. 

With that blocking of the low allowing the Atlantic to metaphorically shove its way in without much defence and repeat what we have just had. This won't have too much effect later on as it is a normal cycle for just before Winter so no getting too down just yet. 

Looking at the jet stream however the change could suggest a brighter future with a sudden switch in direction possibly stopping the constant Atlantic flow which is possible should it go unchecked. 

Like I said before, America will most likely have a decent impact on the weather sooner or later. Should this block more of the Atlantic pushing it down further then we can start getting excited. It is definitly going to be a slow process if this is what happens which it most likely will not be but it is still worth a look, should this happen though I can still go with my original prediction with a little change in the details but it still mainly goes with my forecast just a little bit slower. 

This is just a short written up post and by Saturday I'll have the time to write up a much more in-depth and more accurate one. 

Xander 

Interesting to see aleutian low in residence and a fragmented PV.

[Allseasons-Si]

Afternoon all,..and i hope all is well and good

so we have some interesting weather at last all be it very brief as a north to northwesterly kicks in from Thursday morning and getting quiet chilly too with 850's coming down to around -5(depending on where you are),colder further north

here is the 850's table and gefs ens,for here i even have 20% chance of snow,...wow first of the season

also early Thursday morning there is this little feature down towards the south coast and into the channel,...worth keeping an eye on as this will be quiet choppy for the cross channel ferries etc

 

looking further ahead and there is northing lurking in the cold woodshed as of yet so just standard Autumn fair by the looks but just remember that winter is not here yet and there is plenty of time for that...

 

...what i do notice though is that northeastern America look to have an Indian summer,...look at that temp anomaly

what ever the weather,...enjoy the rest of your day

take care folks

l8ter's

P.S,...welcome back @MATTWOLVES and @tight isobar

Edited October 19, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Eagle Eye]

On 19/10/2021 at 14:23, damianslaw said:

Interesting to see aleutian low in residence and a fragmented PV.

Definitly something to look out for in future runs