model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hope this isnt the sign of things to come for the winter ahead!

What happens in autumn, stays in autumn!  .   …meanwhile, roll on Friday, a chill in the air!  

 

[Cambrian]

Some more musings this morning on the jetstream. The GFS is definitely cranking it up now,

This was from the GFS as it was at 0h yesterday morning, the jetstream in bits. struggling to get over 100 mph anywhere. 

This morning, from the 0z GFS op, still fragmented.

At 48h, classical meridional meandering.

At the edge of the reliable at 168h, running more west to east than of late but still modest in strength 

At 240h, getting going in the mid-Atlantic, some stronger upper winds directing low pressure systems between Scotland and Iceland with the UK and Ireland in a mild unsettled flow.

At the end of the run, at 384h, taking more of a NW-SE orientation across the Atlantic. This trend has been there for several runs now, and is interesting, as although admittedly only early November, it places us comfortably in the base of a broad trough providing a pool that is getting colder all the time with the active formation of successive lows in an airmass originated from the Arctic. 

 

A long way off, but this could provide a setup where we might be able to just sit back and watch those freezing levels steadily drop over several days.

[Eagle Eye]

Good to see I'm not alone in my predictions yesterday

That low to the West of the weakening Greenland low is getting closer to it every single run. If that combines with it then the delaying of Winter will be cut back to my original forecast and we WILL have an early Winter in my opinion almost definite. 

Next Saturday I will write up based on yesterday's predictions and therefore my predictions for Winter, so dad I'm happy with how the runs are going what 8 am hoping for is a weakere Atlantic because if that intervenes like I said yesterday it will delay Winter, anything could happen right now but a decent chunk of the opportunity goes to my early Winter prediction. 

[Ali1977]

No real cold 850s with the FI chart, but it could be really cold at night. 

[Methuselah]

Well, there's nothing much very excitement-worthy in today's GFS 06Z run. Just what's normal for October -- early November:

    

    

    

Meanwhile, back in the Batcave, I'll contain myself until I see -10C T850s hitting the Midlands!

[Badgers01]

On 17/10/2021 at 11:33, Eagle Eye said:

Good to see I'm not alone in my predictions yesterday

That low to the West of the weakening Greenland low is getting closer to it every single run. If that combines with it then the delaying of Winter will be cut back to my original forecast and we WILL have an early Winter in my opinion almost definite. 

Next Saturday I will write up based on yesterday's predictions and therefore my predictions for Winter, so dad I'm happy with how the runs are going what 8 am hoping for is a weakere Atlantic because if that intervenes like I said yesterday it will delay Winter, anything could happen right now but a decent chunk of the opportunity goes to my early Winter prediction. 

Not sure we can say that the phasing of one low will result in a definite early winter ..!! 

[Eagle Eye]

On 17/10/2021 at 13:44, Badgers01 said:

Not sure we can say that the phasing of one low will result in a definite early winter ..!! 

Definitly, we cannot be sure after all it is one low but look at my post yestersy for a more in depth look as to why its pretty important though 

[Badgers01]

On 17/10/2021 at 13:53, Eagle Eye said:

Definitly, we cannot be sure after all it is one low but look at my post yestersy for a more in depth look as to why its pretty important though 

I did and there is no explanation or reasoning of a mechanism that could lead to an early winter …. !!??

 

potentially really quite warm early next week not sure we can say for certainty much beyond that we are only just half way through Autumn  !

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I did and there is no explanation or reasoning of a mechanism that could lead to an early winter …. !!??

 

potentially really quite warm early next week not sure we can say for certainty much beyond that we are only just half way through Autumn  !

I agree, @Badgers01; and yet we hear it almost every year?

Edited October 17, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Badgers01]

On 17/10/2021 at 14:14, Ed Stone said:

I agree, @Badgers01; and yet we hear it almost every year?

It’s a strange one because if there was a provable link between autumn weather and winter outcomes I am pretty sure we would know of it by now !! 

[Eagle Eye]

On 17/10/2021 at 14:09, Badgers01 said:

I did and there is no explanation or reasoning of a mechanism that could lead to an early winter …. !!??

 

potentially really quite warm early next week not sure we can say for certainty much beyond that we are only just half way through Autumn  !

This is why I don't post things like that here usually

I just noticed the fact that when that low swings down it weakens the Atlantic which further out which I very simply explained in that post. 

Well just have to wait and see won't we, remember this is the first time I've tried doing an in-depth forecast let alone a Winter one. 

[Badgers01]

On 17/10/2021 at 14:57, Eagle Eye said:

This is why I don't post things like that here usually

I just noticed the fact that when that low swings down it weakens the Atlantic which further out which I very simply explained in that post. 

Well just have to wait and see won't we, remember this is the first time I've tried doing an in-depth forecast let alone a Winter one. 

ThTs fair enough and I hAve no wish to dampen your enthusiasm but we do strive here to a semblance of science and reasoning - people will comment on things you post - that’s what happens on a forum !

[legritter]

hi gang ,great posts on the best weather forum around .i can feel a big chill in my water !!!! ,possibility of the advance guard of winter arriving early November .The climate change conference in Glasgow kicks off in early november ,i can see the headlines now   ,early freak wintry weather greats world leaders in Glasgow ,just a thought i know but quite possible even with human made temperature rises .Just got back from my wood shed ,Squirrels are running around chattering  something about a net weather melt down coming . just cooking Sausages ,BAPS ARE BUTTERED ,daddies sauce ready ,take care all and cheers to all posters .

[Eagle Eye]

A week can't come around long enough can it? 

Well, 2 more days of school then I'll be free all day every day for a week and a half. 

In the meanwhile have a good day everyone looking forward to more posts about this Winter, bring on the cold! 

[Methuselah]

Holy flock (and, nae because a 57-year-old is still at school) I think the GFS 12Z looks rather like 'normal fayre' for mid-autumn -- cold crap, warm crap, cold crap, warm crap...looks like 99% of all autumns to me?

    

    

    

I could of course be missing something -- as the SS Officer said to the Tesco's greengrocer: 'Vere are you peppers? Show me your peppers!'

 

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Cambrian]

The 12z operational runs. GFS going a bit bigger on the amplification of the ridge between the two lows at 144h, compared with the ECM, the slight difference leads to a marked divergence later on. The UKMO is a good deal closer to the ECM as far as it goes.
GFS / ECM / UKMO

  

GFS also more amplified on the northward ridging of the Azores high following the second low, at 168h. 

GFS / ECM

 

This is important because it impacts on weather type by 192h, the Azores high ridging up into the UK and Ireland on the GFS, while the ECM keeps us in a mobile westerly.

GFS / ECM

 

Under the strong influence of a European high by day 10 on the GFS,  while awaiting the incoming fronts of the next low pressure system on the ECM. 

GFS / ECM

 
 

 

[northwestsnow]

Is EC setting up for an early Nov Northerly ?

I suspect so at day 10 but it's a long way away...

Edited October 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is EC setting up for an early Nov Northerly ?

I suspect so at day 10 but it's a long way away...

Looks like it lined up for it but Heighths are dropping off the esb and not much sign of extended azores high. Still,its a long way off tho Nws

[mb018538]

No posts again....which tells you nobody is interested!

Guess we will have to see if the weakening of the PV to near record levels for this time of the year will feed back into cold and more blocked weather as we go into November



At the moment, it's just wet and windy (barring a brief lull on Friday/Saturday) dominating for the next 10 days:



Possibility of seeing 21c tomorrow afternoon in the SE if cloud clears:

[Methuselah]

A rather quiet day, in here, today. GFS 06Z:

    

    

    

I wonder if there's such a thing as a 'snaplet'?

[carinthian]

Well nothing to get excited about with the UKMO extended run. Looks like an endless westerly dominated regime into the British Isles.  In a rut comes to mind. Here in Central Euroland ,a mild high dominates and yes its all a bit of a big yawn waiting for some cold charts to get excited about. Looks like all models singing on the same hymn sheet into the medium term at least.

C

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 12z, a cold start to November would be just what the doctor ordered!… I won’t apologise for my shameless cold bias!!!  

[Eagle Eye]

Just enjoying the posts on the best forum out there that I've found, really excited for this Winter, can't say it's the first time but who isn't excited to see snow drifting across hills and your never too old for sledging. 

Being on the cold! 

Keep these posts coming

Xander

[bluearmy]

Pretty meh ec46 for anyone expecting cold in nov …..poss anticyclonic gloomy cold I guess ….

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty meh ec46 for anyone expecting cold in nov …..poss anticyclonic gloomy cold I guess ….

Sceuro high ...