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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Of course we are comparing an 'actual' chart with a predicted chart at day 10 so the usual caveats apply. Always wanted to use that phrase 😂

    For sure, but the mean which I’ve added to my post above, backs up the view there is very little coming our way from the upstream pattern.  It is different to last year, whether that is good news or not come winter I can’t say yet, to be honest!  Let’s hope…

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    At first glance looks similar. I'll give you that. One big difference is the big Aleutian low. Present in this years chart. Absent in last year's. 

     

    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Thanks, yes that is one spot the difference!  The other is the low heights over the USA on last years charts, completely absent on this year’s - it is for me about what is upstream!  And my answer is nothing, this year!  

    My point was that the NH charts at the moment look very ‘un autumnal’ ……..and yet what happened last year after those ‘un autumnal’ charts ….. I wasn’t finding similarities…… I didn’t think there were many ….

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    For sure, but the mean which I’ve added to my post above, backs up the view there is very little coming our way from the upstream pattern.  It is different to last year, whether that is good news or not come winter I can’t say yet, to be honest!  Let’s hope…

    Yep indeed, just seen the mean chart you posted. We always live in hope.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

     

    My point was that the NH charts at the moment look very ‘un autumnal’ ……..and yet what happened last year after those ‘un autumnal’ charts ….. I wasn’t finding similarities…… I didn’t think there were many ….

    I think at first glance there are quite a few similarities 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

     

    My point was that the NH charts at the moment look very ‘un autumnal’ ……..and yet what happened last year after those ‘un autumnal’ charts ….. I wasn’t finding similarities…… I didn’t think there were many ….

    Now if you had posted this chart, I would have understood your point about not many similarities. 

    Screenshot_20211013-222826.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run, and you can see the 5 wave pattern T96:

    AA49BB51-7CFE-40BA-9CF3-F748788A096D.thumb.jpeg.78302dc3337381ee6599f2f55d019d1d.jpeg

    In my view that cannot develop into an Atlantic autumn onslaught pattern, it is too meridional…and before we get to winter, one or more  of those ridges is going to have to go - will be interesting to see which!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    8 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run, and you can see the 5 wave pattern T96:

    AA49BB51-7CFE-40BA-9CF3-F748788A096D.thumb.jpeg.78302dc3337381ee6599f2f55d019d1d.jpeg

    In my view that cannot develop into an Atlantic autumn onslaught pattern, it is too meridional…and before we get to winter, one or more  of those ridges is going to have to go - will be interesting to see which!

    Week 2 looks to have a mainly +NAO developing with a NW/SE split ……those in the north of the U.K. will certainly feel that the Atlantic is bossing their weather later in October. Remains to be seen if it can be described as an ‘onslaught’.  Currently doubtful. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    These charts on the 00z UKV has caught my eye today...

    image.thumb.png.f95e9d66a941298eee6ef6af1ae74c02.pngimage.thumb.png.a6ddba2b040e7f5faebbcc22240fcc73.pngimage.thumb.png.6a034a8922a7568b23a63386f54941a8.pngimage.thumb.png.be130ca1f61f62fbdc129cfcabf7284d.png 

    Temperatures at 17/18c at 3am in the morning in mid to late October?! Very tropical airmass with 850 temps at 13/14c and humidity close to 100%

    Would that be some sort of record??

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    8 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run, and you can see the 5 wave pattern T96:

    AA49BB51-7CFE-40BA-9CF3-F748788A096D.thumb.jpeg.78302dc3337381ee6599f2f55d019d1d.jpeg

    In my view that cannot develop into an Atlantic autumn onslaught pattern, it is too meridional…and before we get to winter, one or more  of those ridges is going to have to go - will be interesting to see which!

    Probably 2  and 3 knowing our luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There’s still plenty of support for a cold incursion from the north in the GEFS 0z later next week, timings and duration vary, as does the depth of cold but as previously, some members don’t support it at all and the ECM 0z operational isn’t interested either…but it’s probably too early to start getting excited by cold potential unless something freakish was to verify…it’s only mid autumn! 😜 🍂 
     

    Edit..I forgot to mention it’s turning very unsettled next week with rain and strong winds….. doh, doh, how silly of me! 😱 🌧 💨 

    Edited by jon snow
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    9 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run, and you can see the 5 wave pattern T96:

    AA49BB51-7CFE-40BA-9CF3-F748788A096D.thumb.jpeg.78302dc3337381ee6599f2f55d019d1d.jpeg

    In my view that cannot develop into an Atlantic autumn onslaught pattern, it is too meridional…and before we get to winter, one or more  of those ridges is going to have to go - will be interesting to see which!

    Don't bet on that, 4 is a better number for either very slow moving patterns or even stationary in my experience.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Don't bet on that, 4 is a better number for either very slow moving patterns or even stationary in my experience.

    Yes, thanks, John, I agree for stuck patterns in winter.  I have been struck by the very meridional pattern through summer, though, with a higher wave number, which is why I’ve been watching it, and musing on what it might (or might not!) mean if the wave number is forced to reduce further to 4 or 3 as we edge nearer to winter.  

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Day 6 on the latest GFS shows the WAA  pushing further into Greenland, which may help further down the line. It’s way too early to think about snow and ice but the NH is looking really really different this Autumn. I still think we’ll see U.K. wide frosts before the end of soft which in itself isn’t a regular occurrence 

    EE06B5C8-5423-4CF4-BB7A-628677C729C0.png

    78342DEA-165A-4C7B-B071-411DE3A11A5B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Tuesday is looking more and more likely to be unseasonably warm:

    image.thumb.png.f589ca50551b7bf0a320d9d92db566d3.pngimage.thumb.png.daf180349135550db45b2640754c7b50.png

     

    Strong NW/SE bias for rainfall in the next couple of weeks:

    image.thumb.png.d962e5e051a2c239ee8ad4f929ad21b8.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Bring on the cold?..or cool..woteva.. pffft! 😜..for Scotland at least! 😮😱🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

    D03153AE-2B26-46A3-BFE9-B07A93882C03.thumb.gif.aafbbdb4978644dc6167be745d8b13a1.gifFA77A3B6-019F-4A8D-A1BF-D6B31C1B66BF.thumb.gif.1fdff10dd03881b5e2d05605a30faf9f.gif5FE536F5-7FD4-4DA5-A0BF-D4ECB3AA7D2E.thumb.gif.b9449000e5a94d531cfe858a4fcaaae8.gif7B2D7365-FCD9-4F78-AAEA-F5BBDC114A1A.thumb.png.a7e30910fc8fd3bffe5dd523eebfb27e.png

    Wow..that’s yesterday’s 12z..my bad..in my defence..I have slow tinternet.. I blame meteociel..damn frogs.. 🐸🤯🤣

    Edited by jon snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, jon snow said:

    Bring on the cold?..or cool..woteva! 😜..for Scotland at least! 😮😱🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

    D03153AE-2B26-46A3-BFE9-B07A93882C03.thumb.gif.aafbbdb4978644dc6167be745d8b13a1.gifFA77A3B6-019F-4A8D-A1BF-D6B31C1B66BF.thumb.gif.1fdff10dd03881b5e2d05605a30faf9f.gif5FE536F5-7FD4-4DA5-A0BF-D4ECB3AA7D2E.thumb.gif.b9449000e5a94d531cfe858a4fcaaae8.gif7B2D7365-FCD9-4F78-AAEA-F5BBDC114A1A.thumb.png.a7e30910fc8fd3bffe5dd523eebfb27e.png

     

    Sod the cold! 7B2D7365-FCD9-4F78-AAEA-F5BBDC114A1A.thu  🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Tuesday is looking more and more likely to be unseasonably warm:

    image.thumb.png.f589ca50551b7bf0a320d9d92db566d3.pngimage.thumb.png.daf180349135550db45b2640754c7b50.png

     

    Strong NW/SE bias for rainfall in the next couple of weeks:

    image.thumb.png.d962e5e051a2c239ee8ad4f929ad21b8.png 

    What feel any benefit under all that wind and rain. SW airstreams are the devil!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    If it was winter I would be quite excited by the GEFS 6z mean looking like this later next week!..but it’s mid autumn, so I’m not!..having said that, there’s still a chance of a cold incursion across the far north, cold enough for snow to modest levels and some ice / frost?…longer term, following an increasingly unsettled spell next week, conditions ease somewhat to more of a northwest-southeast split with the SE becoming drier and brighter more often than not?.and milder too with winds from the southwest! 😱

    A31E4F0F-472E-40C3-8A2D-659610FFECFD.thumb.png.27163b57e0198deb6abeab527111e4b9.pngCAA6BD86-8223-4B33-89EB-4DDF68E9774D.thumb.png.ed6b8fc14d2fa3768e044b4456309727.png 

    Edited by jon snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    What feel any benefit under all that wind and rain. SW airstreams are the devil!

    This is true. The very high temps correspond with the rain not making it across the S/SE corner. If the rain arrives then we can easily take 3-5c off those values.

    image.thumb.png.e72e5aca1bac3994216ca13d843be832.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    19 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    It still looks to me like there is a 5 wave pattern on the ECM T96 with a high over the pole:

    FA8164A5-37EA-4537-8B74-B21FBD94252E.thumb.jpeg.7ba66919f5348e11c1857b92b1b5bb2c.jpeg

    Until circumstances change and this meridional signal is reduced, there is no opportunity for a zonal onslaught…

    surely theres 6, with one over the uk... 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking further ahead, the cfs 0z says Christmas Day will be cold! 😱…well, that would make a pleasant change wouldn’t it!?… 🤔😉🥶 :santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji::cold-emoji:

    CCAA7D87-AC4C-422B-AFC3-91E2786AAB6F.thumb.png.d2d21f221d98376845965ff9729c4351.png 

    Edited by jon snow
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