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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA T264 is….

B32B0F9E-0D89-4850-B05F-4C4072675BCF.thumb.gif.92c1f2c02d6bf012a744545cae43cfe6.gif

…like a blue tit fluttering its wings standing on a twig somewhere in Germany.  

But from where our UK weather usually comes from, over practically half the hemisphere there is nothing, nil, nada…

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192-T240:

BB8D49F1-76AD-4C14-8F94-FEFAF63B89D6.thumb.png.643f8ee20b11f165b8e25a95367c0572.png

There’s quite a lot of uncertainty here, after the high pressure (maybe) ends. 

I think cluster 2 is likely given other models, northerly plunge just missing UK to the east, cluster 3 is also likely - the continuity one, if you like with continued UK high.  We will see…

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
On 08/10/2021 at 20:59, Mike Poole said:

JMA T264 is….

B32B0F9E-0D89-4850-B05F-4C4072675BCF.thumb.gif.92c1f2c02d6bf012a744545cae43cfe6.gif

…like a blue tit fluttering its wings standing on a twig somewhere in Germany.  

But from where our UK weather usually comes from, over practically half the hemisphere there is nothing, nil, nada…

 

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

The ECM 12z operational run is developing a trend of giving the North Atlantic trough more of an influence on our weather than it has recently.

While the high pressure diverts the first southward plunge to the east down over Germany and Poland between 72h and 96h;

DF344B58-D29B-4974-9984-CCB57BE7712E.thumb.png.cc6b055e7be71c7386051ef4638f4d3b.png  E7827D64-6AFE-4A05-A4C3-F0CE99CE9372.thumb.png.3450c4089137bee63723448f1d9630f7.png

As Karl has pointed out, the second one at 168h brings some colder air south for a day or so, with a cold morning on the 16th

C2866094-0A97-45DD-98BC-7B604A10F826.thumb.png.0023462dc62c223ae7a98efbd0f65a11.png CD9D5652-B8F4-4959-A89A-7A5BC9CA6DB0.thumb.png.7ed1c6c5c0d2208489fa3b8e043e574a.png 2B6E64EE-A412-4AFE-B481-90EC9223CC89.thumb.png.f536aed6ad15e8bb8154815f026337af.png

And towards the end of the run, beginning to come under the influence of the mid-Atlantic trough itself from the west as the high pressure begins to more tellingly give way following the third surge.
095FD722-39F9-4FF3-88B3-DE0CC9FAF18D.thumb.png.26648b4b6b3e972f7f6c21d477cb2734.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Marked differences between the 12z and 18z GFS op runs as early as 120h. The 12z, like the ECM op, dropped the trough down very decidedly through Scandinavia and down over Eastern Europe, while on the 18z, it timorously approaches the Baltic.

12z / 18z 

17D5B4D1-D85B-4D88-8B43-BF0F5CAC004B.thumb.png.bf57b823070be916786ce1fa44a5a0b9.png 9E5580D3-8011-4B53-95BC-78CEB2A146D3.thumb.png.232c48aba8554fc1c35cece047d86ded.png

The high pressure intensifies more as a result on the 18z at 144h.

12z / 18z

D44F741A-B6A3-4C91-8E6E-9AD90CA30356.thumb.png.82d717901a5e07935695de8ac55875ee.png DBF8F9FE-6B50-4567-B561-2DC6F69FFA3A.thumb.png.391ab05e9ee8cac37f06faa85902c86f.png

Upshot of all this is that the high pressure is extended further north at its eastern edge, and interestingly also extends a ridge towards Iceland by 240h, cooling Europe down and disrupting the Atlantic trough in the process.

 12z / 18z

EFCC4CB5-BBB2-44A7-902C-3B8FB3F82850.thumb.png.b630d2425391e7f4ffd298944051f474.png DA3BF640-5BFA-4943-B35B-72162C9BA5B1.thumb.png.a8ea9c416a54c0794755c7bbdeafe701.png

It gets even better by day 12.

12z / 18z

 23E0F46F-0AC9-430A-995D-F2A1AB706CD8.thumb.png.8ba5ba7a043fe29414c867af2e1e6561.png 38F6363E-B030-42B3-BA98-A28329892E51.thumb.png.5e1359043fc21bf862aa07f62505e122.png

Pub run wild time or is it on to some scope for a proper early cold spell? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 0z operational certainly has some interest, doesn’t particularly impact the u k but looking at the bigger picture, it’s very interesting for Northern Europe!…for sure, it’s not all about boring high pressure floating around ad infinitum!!   

E8F2974F-C55B-4602-A169-03DD46D067D0.thumb.png.865deada66ed517eca479c1db88ef07e.png7343467F-5AB5-40F4-95AE-C998CD631DB6.thumb.png.15aaf042a82c00e6cf22fb778c674c11.png885D8005-CB44-43A3-B66C-5FD01545F3CE.thumb.png.3022c270195b93a00ae0d5870d8cd2fd.png4A0E09D1-9067-47DE-A279-58C931E7D6DC.thumb.png.20c7ad6f37dfca18dda9185df5360ea7.png

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 12 from the GFS, showing the Operational, Control and mean. It looks like the first notable autumn cold blast is gathering a little pace. Not sure you’d see much snow at this stage away from Scottish hill tops, but it would be a nice taster. Still a lifetime away in terms of a forecast obviously!! 

AC7958D7-BB19-4F4C-9B9E-E43A2F1BA8D4.png

33B22C6F-5BC6-4C47-8528-7EEF4BD21B10.png

0DFCACE3-B890-47E7-9406-AFDED0C175F7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh well, there's nothing  quite like the GEFS 00Z ensembles for throwing some light on the subject: 

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.475a2bd3606d637bb316bd8e9c1e2171.pngimage.thumb.png.ec4027a61c335ee56a624f2215af006e.png

A much more notable drop on the pressure ensembles this morning - a number deeper lows appearing in the forecasts around day 12....so if you want a bit of this:

image.thumb.png.f28968333ec632ffb787f2f7dad4de34.pngimage.thumb.png.b2bfc9c352b6e8b9616b6e157f4262cf.png

You may get your wish!

The ECM clusters from day 11 onwards are also the most unsettled they've been for a while, and with nothing like hurricane Sam in the mixing bowl to shake things up like we've just seen, it appears that a much more unsettled last 7-10 days of October is looking increasingly likely for the UK.

image.thumb.png.3da46e3c21322883ea4e716849e23b68.pngimage.thumb.png.5416f98c1dd1d7efab54dc275938b23e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Were this not a figment of Old Man GFS's very fertile virtual imagination, the Grampians and Southern Uplands would be in for some interesting weather:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.pngimage.png.9450a1c1517c3fbed943560cac2272cb.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking beyond the anticyclonic bore fest!, the GEFS 6z mean becomes more interesting, for sure it trends more unsettled, but there is also scope for something colder and more unsettled, at least further north..as per the 6z op!   …..I wouldn’t rule out an early taste of winter before October is done and dusted!..how often can that be said?..not often!  

A1B622A7-C113-4F27-A5EF-80202480F7A3.thumb.png.92c7678f469a009e7e274d2385aa010f.png875767C7-53DF-436D-8EDF-4B73589177D6.thumb.png.60130e72413a97c765b97496257c9a1f.png7BC96667-8A45-4CA7-AECA-4DA79D9F595A.thumb.png.a1f0b0428b9e89ae4349f94c079e1e60.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.475a2bd3606d637bb316bd8e9c1e2171.pngimage.thumb.png.ec4027a61c335ee56a624f2215af006e.png

A much more notable drop on the pressure ensembles this morning - a number deeper lows appearing in the forecasts around day 12....so if you want a bit of this:

image.thumb.png.f28968333ec632ffb787f2f7dad4de34.pngimage.thumb.png.b2bfc9c352b6e8b9616b6e157f4262cf.png

You may get your wish!

The ECM clusters from day 11 onwards are also the most unsettled they've been for a while, and with nothing like hurricane Sam in the mixing bowl to shake things up like we've just seen, it appears that a much more unsettled last 7-10 days of October is looking increasingly likely for the UK.

image.thumb.png.3da46e3c21322883ea4e716849e23b68.pngimage.thumb.png.5416f98c1dd1d7efab54dc275938b23e.png

Last 10 days of October is traditionally an unsettled period, first storms of the season often occur and first snows for the fells. The 20 October to 10 Nov period is true autumn for me... a time of rapid change in feel.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I just had an ah bisto moment when I looked at the GEFS 6z control run…ah bisto!!!  …frosty you are crazy…I know!   

763F099D-81AD-4054-BDBB-02F4C137732C.thumb.png.94531e8c29e79add49425a00414f567e.png3ECEE389-0153-46F3-BF5A-E2C2E59BC879.thumb.png.1148a30c76eec3c44e7e268fecaef5fb.png3BDFE8D4-076E-40F3-B954-1FFB80801165.thumb.jpeg.14cfc4f0539a84fd8dffa855118e71be.jpeg

Or, in my case (being as it's still only October): Where's the nearest toilet!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So to the 12s then, ICON first up, and holds the high pressure close to the UK.  So warm days, cool nights, and some fog, I guess.   I think this is good for prospects into late autumn and winter, as you can see from the animation, it will cool the continent down, which will be crucial if we are to take full advantage of a front loaded winter scenario, with delayed impact of the strat vortex.

animavz0.gif 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO 12z T144:

F8A10DEF-8AC1-469F-880F-58AE24F0AE73.thumb.gif.23a382d1194ce4e58c242c76cd08a64e.gif

Like ICON showing tendency to retrogress the high to southern Greenland.  But all the blue nastyness is on the right side of the hemisphere, so all is good in the hood!

Adding in GFS T168:

761FCFE2-411E-41EF-9FD4-E9C1AF68541B.thumb.png.fe86837fc6a93835be18f74274ae6dab.png

There really is nothing in the Atlantic, nothing.  And even amongst that array of blue to the NE, there’s still a surface high there.  Just one more run, but building confidence in a cold start to winter all the time…we will see…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, there's nae much retrogression on the GFS 12Z. Yet!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No toilets needed at T+384! Plenty of time yet, for blizzards?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  image.png.d3dcbfdc07acb55ad46c14492eee21f1.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A bit of strat warming showing at day 13, let’s see if can build on this noting the longer range forecast we’re picking up on the possibility!! 

6745A09C-10D5-4090-8B47-0F1D5BAA01ED.png

1CDA37FE-462A-49D3-99E4-2D8CED707758.jpeg

680D965B-10EC-4B87-BF4E-C1EE9DBDFFB0.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean is trending more unsettled for the last third of October, especially further n / nw and there is some cold potential too here and there so we can’t rule out an early taste of wintry weather, at least across northern hills / mountains?…and the longer term ECMWF 12z operational is also trending more unsettled from the NW at around the same time ( towards the end of the run…not sure how long it would last though??   ) in the meantime, there’s plenty of fine anticyclonic weather to come for the majority, the far n / nw could be the exception. The mainly fine weather should bring variable cloud / sunny spells and some overnight mist and fog where skies clear, perhaps a touch of frost in rural parts too.

A034D6E2-B9ED-4E97-A217-5D7F00A0A10E.thumb.png.d6c4927c46970afe41455323390c27a4.pngD8E6E248-56A1-4E50-9004-A23C667EB3F1.thumb.png.f0792449214b6a575c9e5e4d8e62e345.pngD43858AA-B792-4E8E-ACEF-BD7AF3481EA6.thumb.png.6ce2cbca43115f8f6bacf861641e366c.pngC23E0A13-924E-4DCC-A561-8AC1CF6ED07B.thumb.png.0b9624f7cae9ab9cea4b13fca7a5f4f8.png62923164-5BAD-4899-B028-E233453B0639.thumb.png.39fd5ba3a5a50a263fd4293d04ab5aa9.pngEF3C1DE0-213F-4C0F-83E3-4C94217E5727.thumb.png.a3ce831832382c4c916c7111a70fa4dc.png3EC39006-6E9A-41A0-AD41-9210799084A2.thumb.png.cb1dec3bd35f32b36a2d2ca0387cba87.pngE2CDE369-05AE-4653-BDB5-8BF4A3C8F3C4.thumb.png.b3264a2c4c887a4e6c4d07bfca13bea8.png

Edited by jon snow
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