Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 11th July onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Netweather's GFS run. 

    Make of it what you will. 

     

     

     

    ukcapeli (44).png

    ukcapeli (45).png

    ukcapeli (46).png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085532.653.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085536.317.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085551.287.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085554.877.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085604.643.png

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It seems the consensus seen yesterday has somewhat dissolved.

    On the 0z models we saw a loose Euro/GFS alliance persist through day 9 Vs GEM. On the 6z the GFS has joined the GEM in a very agressive shift of the pattern such that in a week's time they say 'job done'.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting - mostly storms or snow
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
    2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Netweather's GFS run. 

    Make of it what you will. 

     

     

     

    ukcapeli (44).png

    ukcapeli (45).png

    ukcapeli (46).png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085532.653.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085536.317.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085551.287.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085554.877.png

    ukprec - 2021-07-15T085604.643.png

    I wouldn't get your hopes up.

    Unless something has changed, the GFS is still very prone to over-egging CAPE values more than a few days out - or even more than 24 hours out.
    If that CAPE is still showing closer to the time, I'll be extremely surprised.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Again GFS ultra aggressive and taking bites out of the warmth of Sunday, Monday nothing above 25C - bit different to UKV.

    Hope next week doesn’t end up like today, fully overcast and 21/22C. Complete waste….

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Again GFS ultra aggressive and taking bites out of the warmth of Sunday, Monday nothing above 25C - bit different to UKV.

    The UKV 03Z has actually increased the temps from yesterday's 15Z, and also more widespread.

    15Z:

    81290595_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0b5e8ad84f23f945e732fb880b1e57bc.png

    03Z:

    viewimage.thumb.png.e9806a6c337f752494da9cf90a93d7d7.png

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The UKV 03Z has actually increased the temps from yesterday's 15Z, and also more widespread.

    15Z:

    81290595_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0b5e8ad84f23f945e732fb880b1e57bc.png

    03Z:

    viewimage.thumb.png.e9806a6c337f752494da9cf90a93d7d7.png

    👍🏻 Only four days out, someone’s going to be quite wrong. 
     

    GFS clears the 10C 850 isotherm out from all but Devon, Cornwall and South Wales by later afternoon on Monday. UKV must have 850s way, way higher?

    Edited by Alderc
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    👍🏻 Only four days out someone’s going to be quite wrong. 
     

    GFS clears the 10C 850 isotherm out from all but Devon, Cornwall and South Wales by later afternoon on Monday. UKV must have 850s way, way higher?

    1050946_viewimage(2).thumb.png.59fe9bb6d60ffef9f7dd4e7366545d49.png

    1189235244_viewimage(3).thumb.png.e3f24efca7914a9abf6a6c5adf011686.png PPVO89.thumb.gif.fa4b1e5c266c08eb58bccddddded5be0.gif

    The FAX is close-ish to the UKV;  The SW still within the 564 dam.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    1050946_viewimage(2).thumb.png.59fe9bb6d60ffef9f7dd4e7366545d49.png

    1189235244_viewimage(3).thumb.png.e3f24efca7914a9abf6a6c5adf011686.png PPVO89.thumb.gif.fa4b1e5c266c08eb58bccddddded5be0.gif

    The FAX is close-ish to the UKV;  The SW still within the 564 dam.

    GFS and it’s ensembles having no of the UKV. Just look how the entire ensemble pack falls through the floor early next week. 

    09533FF1-EE43-49B2-91DD-B7888201AA00.thumb.png.692a8db2b4878b3c463206acaf27bdde.png

    1797819030_gfs-inverness-gb-575n-4w3.thumb.jpeg.e079024ddf95c30faa5024af22da68a6.jpeg

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Here's the very latest MetO look at how the computer models are shaping up. Essential viewing, methinks?🤔

    And the GFS 06Z for Monday; the timing/positioning of the cold front could be problematic?🌞

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
    8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Here's the very latest MetO look at how the computer models are shaping up. Essential viewing, methinks?🤔

    And the GFS 06Z for Monday; the timing/positioning of the cold front could be problematic?🌞

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    10 Day trend forecast is issued every Weds morning. Already over 24 hours old that one. 

    Edited by Wimbledon88
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Posted (edited)

    Think the post I was gonna quote has disappeared...but regarding the Weather apps take no notice...everytime they update the conditions have changed from sunny/sunny spells to cloudy again..today here for instance is well wide of the mark again..I really wish they would abolish them for good as some folks who have 0% percent knowledge on weather are relying upon them!

    What does the 6Z mean tell us moving further on! Well as its been already stated plenty of fine and possibly Hot conditions this Weekend...what next! It cools down a tad with a shower risk, but I would imagine still plenty of fine conditions for some. The potential is there for conditions to become somewhat more unsettled towards months end as pressure drops off. Tentative signs perhaps of this being short lived as conditions improve again as we enter August! So the wax and wane situation of this Summer so far perhaps continues.

    gens-31-1-96.png

    gens-31-1-120.png

    gens-31-1-144.png

    gens-31-1-162.png

    gens-31-1-186.png

    gens-31-1-252.png

    gens-31-1-276.png

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    41 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

    10 Day trend forecast is issued every Weds morning. Already over 24 hours old that one. 

    Smartarse!😁

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And now it's time for the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles, of which the operational is running cool!

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Oh dear, some of those 2m temps look dire . . . Praise be, to Those Who Cannot Be Named!😁

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just catching up, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty decent, as do most of the models in the short / mid range...this weekend indeed looks very warm for the majority, some cooler air spreading s / sw early next week but pressure staying on the high side, beyond approx day 10 the 6z mean turns into a north / south split with the south being predominantly decent...so, yes, the prolonged hot stuff the models were showing a day or two ago have downgraded but it still looks a decent outlook for many and doesn’t preclude upgrades to something hotter again further ahead?...just my amateur opinion..hope it’s a fair and balanced if not likeable assessment!!!. 😉 😯  

    5AFF6649-AF1C-4062-8886-11BA8ECB1393.thumb.gif.dc698181350f6c5ce9d62b649542a7e2.gifC7341448-273F-452C-AA86-A3FEEDEA71C4.thumb.gif.18c3ae34f98fc4bbc281dec9531f0e2a.gif5C85907E-FAD2-4EBE-94A5-552FD2A2B105.thumb.gif.a415a03d5feb9e0f9a0f7591050c4736.gif7BBE6B75-08D5-4337-8D13-4799327A95EF.thumb.gif.6446fa42aed1bae2f719d521f15cb1c5.gif

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 hours ago, Alderc said:

    👍🏻 Only four days out, someone’s going to be quite wrong. 
     

    GFS clears the 10C 850 isotherm out from all but Devon, Cornwall and South Wales by later afternoon on Monday. UKV must have 850s way, way higher?

    And let me tell you now if the gfs 12z doesnt improve for monday then ukv will be wrong!!its been badly wrong at a ridiculously short time frame before and im not talking a couple of days out!!im talking a few hours out!!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 hours ago, Alderc said:

    👍🏻 Only four days out, someone’s going to be quite wrong. 
     

    GFS clears the 10C 850 isotherm out from all but Devon, Cornwall and South Wales by later afternoon on Monday. UKV must have 850s way, way higher?

    The GFS will be wrong.... or furthest away from reality. The Anomalies do not support the GFSs current version , nor does the ECM, it would be astonishing IF the GFS "beats" the Anomalies and ECM, it can happen but the chances are very remote.... so for now, personally ill ignore the GFS until its output is closer to the ECM and Anomalies.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hemel
  • Location: Hemel

    Looking at the ECM at the timeframe Monday 00:00, the +10 T850 is miles further North in comparison to the GFS at the same time. Looks as though we'd at least get another good day out of that on Monday.

     

    Surely we cannot assume the GFS solution is going to be correct for very early next week when the ECM is going with this.

    image.thumb.png.d75e6e6392bd681cc82202b8b6bb80db.png

    image.thumb.png.d7289c0b311b701ace7e6a6bf205cbae.png

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Surprisingly the latest NOAA discussion does go 60% with the GFS ensemble blends and only 40% Euro so they may move away from such a rosy outlook beyond a week on the anomoly chart.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Some quite big differences between the GFS and UKMO by day 5 in the position of the high.

    UKMO

    image.thumb.gif.29fe7b442d1480791571cc2d1993eded.gif

    High pressure centred over the U.K. or slightly east. There is a cooler blip but as day 6 shows, temperatures will pick up again as the wind becomes more southerly.

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.f011ecce875d826a9cb7ed788baf4b7c.png
     

    High pressure south of Iceland, winds from the north or north east. Probably some showers or more general cloud in the east. Significantly cooler for all.

    You would normally back the UKMO given the GFS has minimal support, but if anything the GFS is moving further away compared to earlier output whilst the others are tending to drag the cooler air in quicker on Sunday.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    Smartarse!😁

    Tbf, they were very late uploading this week's edition! It's only appeared on both Youtube and their Facebook page within the last 6 hours.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS gives a second bit at the cherry in a weeks time. UKMO still chirping that Sunday and Monday will be 31C so they are clearly backing their own model.

    ICON has moved a long way towards GFS as well, although still not as extreme, but it’s dropped 850s 2/3C and the 10C isotherm about 150miles further south than the 00Z run.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    The GFS will be wrong.... or furthest away from reality. The Anomalies do not support the GFSs current version , nor does the ECM, it would be astonishing IF the GFS "beats" the Anomalies and ECM, it can happen but the chances are very remote.... so for now, personally ill ignore the GFS until its output is closer to the ECM and Anomalies.

    sorry i was referring to the whole run, not the loss of the 10c isotherm

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Ir will likely be GFS being correct as the model showing the worst outcome is usually correct. That’s the way it seems to go more often than not in the UK!

    Let’s see what ECM says later.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

    regarding storms next week, it is too far out at this time frame to look at it 

    Thanks.Yes

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...