Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 11th July onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

July

7th July run

9th July

image.thumb.png.15ad18faafc5a73e941e41941cbc1587.pngimage.thumb.png.bc2f4604525a80552a7910b2a4291f8a.pngimage.thumb.png.d8cadeb5be4d3a69bc243b493d411ac6.png

Model agreement 93%

Outcome : 92%

image.thumb.png.55cfa12d0e16e1fe57f59e4025361953.png

The GFS prevails here, the main difference being the Arabian height not too much difference.

11th July

image.thumb.png.2e6f9e4a7ad988064bbd82d7ee2f0db8.pngimage.thumb.png.b0f18a09e2757e68469e64185a363eda.pngimage.thumb.png.98668d16caa853116b17f5a6a5c2b786.png

Model agreement : 77%

Outcome : 70%

image.thumb.png.b919a943b9a06d1992c2d6bc6d48ff7c.png

13th July

image.thumb.png.71b7ac658b72de44b262d17098ab0839.pngimage.thumb.png.386860b629322625893013902c1d8f2f.pngimage.thumb.png.2913316d732e8bcd1a14e5b8ed69121b.png

Model agreement : 64%

Outcome : 63%

image.thumb.png.f5b89724901b44e85a974c164189d806.png

15th July

image.thumb.png.117f3fa1a64e12581e147747280e247a.pngimage.thumb.png.8e79a4a197fca20d05c1afe7e3ea0780.pngimage.thumb.png.fae47351e5ce8dda15e1804e0efd174a.png

Model agreement : 54%

 Outcome : 51%

image.thumb.png.d14646fb7dc2eef1b467545b2b555630.png

18th July run

20th July

image.thumb.png.126bac3c1ac7381f870fe886e6b9de61.pngimage.thumb.png.dcbb11b124ef2faf52182f1c2c7c25df.pngimage.thumb.png.e415baab51196b21814e53df2dd95744.png

Model agreement : 93%

Outcome : 87%

image.thumb.png.55f5059376abdfe4f0246cf42c43eb0d.png

22nd July

image.thumb.png.5414b8a62f290ed2ee77016dee460bbb.pngimage.thumb.png.26a1c9aa4f5a6f9e288ec215f58891e1.pngimage.thumb.png.071227d35fe97cfeb57b77be3ec8c59e.png

Model agreement : 81%

Outcome :  77%

image.thumb.png.c0d68b233dff58d354be0bb26d0d540e.png

24th July

image.thumb.png.80498ca73fa4babb89ecb848c61038b7.pngimage.thumb.png.5e9bc6c2934388d970b2fedb41ced4f1.pngimage.thumb.png.8975146694fcb01d143fef4b1b7bbb21.png

Model agreement : 73%

Outcome :  63%

image.thumb.png.857d9e05ba62ee680628660fe0bf3c85.png

26th July

image.thumb.png.1f8fc691283dd9a0e64c502b3e30eb20.pngimage.thumb.png.5e266503477655997b1ec2d643ec3945.pngimage.thumb.png.32a3120d3f7e6fdd01b5a5f19ed50222.png

Model agreement : 65%

Outcome : 50%

image.thumb.png.38ed3f3b867b78dd1dbb24bcc8e02cdc.png

July

48 hours

Model agreement : 93%

Outcome 88-92%

96 hours

Model agreement: 79-81%

Outcome: 73-75%

144 hours

Model agreement: 67-70%

Outcome: 63%

192 hours

Model agreement: 58-62%

Outcome: 50-51%

That's all for today tomorrow is August and September , then Thursday is the final results of Spring, Summer and early Autumn then hopefully i'll find a way to get the winter models soon to finish this project off.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

In response to @heath question, and also to @carinthian post about Mid latitude Quasi Resonant Blocking, I did a search and came across this paper:

largepreview.png
WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

PDF | In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has suffered several devastating regional summer weather extremes, such as the European heat...

A lot of it above my pay grade, but, reading between the lines I took away this:

In summer, the jet can still become so meridional that it becomes more of a standing wave rather than a travelling wave, and this can lead to stuck patterns, but the wave number for this to happen is 6, 7 or 8 (number of waves around the planet).  I don’t know about earlier in summer, but right now going forward we seem to have a wave 6 pattern, ECM T120, ridges highlighted:

BD3BDE6B-6AD9-4675-8E0D-18EB6A2FAAB1.thumb.jpeg.0aa4cfc10bf1077b3eb31cf44d3bcec3.jpeg

It seems this has been going on for months and because the next ridge is in situ the pattern can’t move on, it has been less obvious to us in the Uk because we weren’t stuck in a heatwave or massive trough, just mostly nondescript summer weather.  But it is clear that the weather pattern has been slow moving for months.  And it goes back to last winter and the SSW (I think).  

Just to consider winter for a moment, the wavelengths are longer, and a 3 wave pattern would have half the hemisphere blocked for at least a month, and a 4 wave pattern would gridlock the whole lot (the holy grail, I think SM once said).  Also in winter, the blocks seem to form in the same places (Greenland, Scandi etc.), less so in summer.  But it seems in the more fluid patterns of summer, there is still a limit to how many waves the planet can handle, it is a larger number, but once 6 or more, the pattern can grind to a halt over some portions of the northern hemisphere, and this seems to be becoming more likely with global warming.

So what does this mean going forward?  I think it means those thinking the Atlantic is going to come barrelling forth just because it is the equinox will find their predictions doomed.  There will be realignments - winter can’t sustain a 6 wave pattern so there will be shifts, but maybe to a 5 wave, then 4 wave, then 3 wave pattern as we go into winter.  But I would, given the winter blocks tend to have particular locations, expect a period of cold weather to prevail during early winter for the UK before this sorts itself out.  

Ironically, the best mechanism to reset this Quasi Resonant Blocking might be a major winter SSW - so my prediction is a cold early winter, followed by an SSW about January that eventually resets for mild.  

I’ve had to make some leaps in my own understanding in this post, so if anyone knows better, please reply and we all learn…

All the best.

Mike

 

2010 brought one of these standing wave patterns all year, little variation. Our last cold year, following on from 1996 which was also a blocked wave pattern. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

2010 brought one of these standing wave patterns all year, little variation. Our last cold year, following on from 1996 which was also a blocked wave pattern. 

Yes, my point is I don’t think it can relax from this position now, a 6 wave position will become untenable into autumn, but it won’t suddenly be replaced by a 1 or 2 wave zonal onslaught will it?  I think there is a case to be argued that we are now in a countdown to a blocked start to winter, because each reduction in wave number is something winter is taking out of the current situation, not as normal, it would be adding strength in from the jet stream.  First cold December in over a decade coming up in my opinion.  

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
On 21/09/2021 at 22:59, Mike Poole said:

Yes, my point is I don’t think it can relax from this position now, a 6 wave position will become untenable into autumn, but it won’t suddenly be replaced by a 1 or 2 wave zonal onslaught will it?  I think there is a case to be argued that we are now in a countdown to a blocked start to winter, because each reduction in wave number is something winter is taking out of the current situation, not as normal, it would be adding strength in from the jet stream.  First cold December in over a decade coming up in my opinion.  

We share the same opinion for that period then. Always good when our thoughts align

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We share the same opinion for that period then. Always good when our thoughts align

Yep CC, I’m fully on board for the front loaded cold December, I know there can be curve balls, but unless something weird happens we cannot possibly go into winter in a zonal pattern.  Just not possible given where we are now.  

Later winter, well we will have to see about that, my thoughts are tending to mild, but very uncertain. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep CC, I’m fully on board for the front loaded cold December, I know there can be curve balls, but unless something weird happens we cannot possibly go into winter in a zonal pattern.  Just not possible given where we are now.  

Later winter, well we will have to see about that, my thoughts are tending to mild, but very uncertain. 

Slightly off topic both winters 96-97 and 10-11 brought blocked cold starts notably so in 2010 with cold weather starting in November.. both whispered out by second week Jan or so.. faster in 2011.. second halves both winters very mild and wet. 

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Slightly off topic both winters 96-97 and 10-11 brought blocked cold starts notably so in 2010 with cold weather starting in November.. both whispered out by second week Han it so.. faster in 2011.. second halves both winters very mild and wet. 

Hey, yes, whisper it, @damianslaw I’m seeing another Dec 2010 here, some indicators going in that direction,  and then possibly the milder later winter that followed it….we will see…

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

OK, as we're straying in this thread, I've set up a new one specifically for discussions/chit-chat on early prospects for the forthcoming Winter season. 

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

All in all, the Gfs 0z operational turns into an unsettled and much cooler run although it’s still warm for the time of year further s/e/se right through to the end of this weekend and largely fine ☀️ ⛅️   with temperatures into the low 20’s c and there are still a few pleasantly warm days further s/se further ahead (upper teens c) but the emphasis is on much cooler more autumnal conditions generally speaking with spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers and not so many drier periods? ☀️⛅☁️ ?   

 

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Cooler and slightly unsettled later on on ecm but taking a look at the precipitation charts not much rainfall all the way to the end!!!yes few showers blowing quickly through and the odd band of rain breezing through as well but nothing significant!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
55 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cooler and slightly unsettled later on on ecm but taking a look at the precipitation charts not much rainfall all the way to the end!!!yes few showers blowing quickly through and the odd band of rain breezing through as well but nothing significant!!!

image.thumb.png.192d43516cf98acdd2eb2fbec3841452.png

Depends on where you are! A quite severe NW/SE split here, with 100mm plus over high ground in the W/NW of England/Wales/Scotland, to only a few mm in East Anglia. Very symptomatic of low pressure being anchored near the NW of Scotland and tracking away to the north, largely sparing the south and east of any heavy rainfall.

image.thumb.png.0cb2e4421a1a898ceb8a06667a04a3ac.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
10 hours ago, Zenarcher said:

This evening, we're doing something a little different by using Northern Hemisphere maps instead. We get a look of October's start. (All of the models and ensembles are averaged into one image for these images.)

With high pressure in the south, the next few days will be generally dry, warm, and sunny, while low pressure in the north will bring wind, rain, and cooler temperatures for a time.

24.thumb.png.cf29f2351615ba139bf3f412d81caf92.png 48.thumb.png.7b95e7186014389f7d045b92eaafd147.png 72.thumb.png.fb64738d9adfc1b818a8c4d9f89e02d9.png

Over the weekend and into Monday the Southerly winds will bring in the warmer air so any cold weather won't last long, the models are still uncertain how dry the weekend will be at this stage but do mostly agree some showers or even rain will affect some parts. It all depends on where the area of low pressure is near Iceland, and most models differ from the ECM tonight, placing it further east.

96.thumb.png.cc7f5e086f5705bb54e89f848c0437c1.png 120.thumb.png.9c1ee217aec13fc41379a79e1147f6d1.png 144.thumb.png.8e59bc9acb1b72ea01f9f6eecf49d4e4.png

As the trend has been showing for a few days now, the extended outlook through next week up to the 1st of October remains unsettled. Low pressure remains in control, however most models don't say it will be anything strong, so some wet and possibly windy weather at times. Nevertheless, a few models do show some deep low pressure form, which could bring some very strong winds, but at this stage it's just a possibility.

168.thumb.png.4b13c6f3d178dbcfeaaf95e6e15dbd11.png 192.thumb.png.7cbbfdda990e695e52129e38c43ed0fd.png 216.thumb.png.46181104a202fc0000946fdb3eb859a3.png 240.thumb.png.cddc2fc54bb932ec53bb494cdeedb474.png

Latest amination, 22nd Sept to 1st Oct (Average model outlook, click to view larger, clearer image.) ezgif-6-c9ab9d9c8a4c.thumb.gif.78aa04965a8ac7ec6bb17cacc3d816e9.gif

A good idea to show the northern hemisphere charts, maybe if you have time, you might do one day northern then the next day the Atlantic set.

Thank you for this additional output of charts

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quiet in here, suspect may be because the models are not to everyone's liking - those wanting the exceptionally calm warm conditions of September to continue to months end. Things could still change, but the trend now appears firmly on a much more unsettled end to the month, and cooler to boot. The atlantic trough is forecast to anchor down through the UK, this has been foreseen by the ensembles for quite some time, but has taken a little longer than perhaps first envisaged to take hold. Heights are set to build strongly out of Russia, which will only block the trough from moving east, and with the azores high advecting back west wards, the trough is trapped - and settles over the UK, bringing a cyclonic outlook. Could be a notably wet end for western and northern parts of the month, after what has been a very dry September so far (here at least). Temperature back down to the seasonal average, perhaps a little below in northern parts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Quiet in here, suspect may be because the models are not to everyone's liking - those wanting the exceptionally calm warm conditions of September to continue to months end. Things could still change, but the trend now appears firmly on a much more unsettled end to the month, and cooler to boot. The atlantic trough is forecast to anchor down through the UK, this has been foreseen by the ensembles for quite some time, but has taken a little longer than perhaps first envisaged to take hold. Heights are set to build strongly out of Russia, which will only block the trough from moving east, and with the azores high advecting back west wards, the trough is trapped - and settles over the UK, bringing a cyclonic outlook. Could be a notably wet end for western and northern parts of the month, after what has been a very dry September so far (here at least). Temperature back down to the seasonal average, perhaps a little below in northern parts.

To be honest I’m not really seeing these much more unsettled conditions when looking at the 12z Ecm which seems to make far less of the Atlantic low early next week compared to the 0z run. Perhaps it’s because I’m looking at these charts on my phone as opposed to a desktop. Either way I wouldn’t be surprised to see further changes favouring a mixed outlook rather than anything overly unsettled nearing months end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
34 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

To be honest I’m not really seeing these much more unsettled conditions when looking at the 12z Ecm which seems to make far less of the Atlantic low early next week compared to the 0z run. Perhaps it’s because I’m looking at these charts on my phone as opposed to a desktop. Either way I wouldn’t be surprised to see further changes favouring a mixed outlook rather than anything overly unsettled nearing months end.

There is a trough, forecasts go for varying depths, some models show it rather deep but quite shallow, others less deep, either way, unsettled rather than settled is the outlook, though that doesn't necessarily equate to particularly wet and windy, indeed in cyclonic set ups with not particularly low heights, sunshine and calm weather can occur, but usually more so in summer rather than autumn.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

8th August run

10th August

image.thumb.png.ccff0c9b31b36b3cb2a7ccf97f6ced0a.pngimage.thumb.png.299c3a5309575b650d5e942e4a4645bb.pngimage.thumb.png.648e2b251705d4cff8d101d15a8448ca.png

Model agreement : 94%

Outcome : 91%

image.thumb.png.fc181eacb4df814fcc32cb7b536cd911.png

1)Seemingly typical but perhaps the model agreement is a bit low I would have thought it would be quite close perhaps near 97% by 48 hours

2)Outcome is pretty close to usual, just over 90%

12th August

image.thumb.png.af81a3445e1d50bda646036853a88e71.pngimage.thumb.png.e09ed1ba156e7b9652831955112d7d4f.pngimage.thumb.png.680524131cb50d8e41283c26bce10b02.png

Model agreement : 88%

Outcome : 85%

image.thumb.png.bf85f5a33b124683012bcdd0a5526ff4.png

1)Model agreement is around average

2)Outcome is as far as I know average as well

3)High is much better than the low's agreement

14th August

image.thumb.png.203a7020a969468f309418fdacb5680f.pngimage.thumb.png.e227c923ba07a080c09dc11e125d4f77.pngimage.thumb.png.9a7567d9015518d2539310c8b65bafe7.png

Model agreement : 73%

Outcome : 67%

image.thumb.png.fefe9d6cab63d8314d18556e8c4480f0.png

1)Model agreement around average, perhaps slightly below

2)Outcome is below average, only just however

16th August

image.thumb.png.86cde819197741b52a35564a9b0ebdec.pngimage.thumb.png.af857f73449a778767e9deb665ba06de.pngimage.thumb.png.e0959fbe8b644fbf8cc7c9c6e1fe841f.png

Model agreement : 55%

 Outcome : 45%

image.thumb.png.2da86ddae447f217db67ec4b40e93e2b.png

1)Model agreement is around average

2)Outcome is below average but it changes a lot due to GEM especially changing how good it is

21st August run

23rd August

image.thumb.png.aa3a96b50fd5833402369475fff0ed6a.pngimage.thumb.png.1e5bc225c62afe1e5a86dacfa932a465.png image.thumb.png.41b40964e106113f3e860682b33fbe90.png

Model agreement : 88%

Outcome : 85%

1)Model agreement is less than average by quite a bit on this run

2)Outcome is below average as well

image.thumb.png.ebfdcdfbcd2435d8f8c989394a88e98f.png

25th August

image.thumb.png.c2d0edafee41aacceb01ecf888cd669c.pngimage.thumb.png.e33f0f2bd054835585cff63a4ba94e55.pngimage.thumb.png.c71d1f55d02adaf8cd0b0a49c30315c9.png

Model agreement : 81%

Outcome : 73%

image.thumb.png.810fcad045367209c39d92fa3d9f83bc.png

1)Model agreement is below avergae, high is basically the same but low's positioning changes

2)Outcome is mainly due to the depth of the low and lot's of differnt changes

27th August

image.thumb.png.e25e08fbdaee476e6ea5be102befd53d.pngimage.thumb.png.cfbf49436b6a8ca6f2d1697f2dd98619.pngimage.thumb.png.9eb4ac448c8143166d89fad008824bc5.png

Model agreement : 60%

Outcome : 70%

image.thumb.png.e2d2425fcb0a37bbf66f37eb469efc82.png

1)Model agreement again below average

2)Outcome is just above average

29th August

image.thumb.png.c4869b56be375e6cb76b24f824377fd1.pngimage.thumb.png.58bb1a52811ac524b3227489a8a4c689.pngimage.thumb.png.0d2b8fa02f89b3596ee21ce60de3adc9.png

Model agreement : 35%

 Outcome : 30%

image.thumb.png.e4a74f1f099fe6a15dc1e950e131108d.png

1)Model agreement is definitly below average

2)Outcome is below average as well

3)High's position really changes in all models

4)Low's position is also very different in al models, worst run so far in terms of combined Outcome and Model Agreement

That's all for now

 

 

Edited by Eagle Eye
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Wow, when was the last time this thread went 12 hours and no posts?

 

The charts shown by Zenarcher seem still valid to me looking at the latest output of synoptic and 500 mb anomaly charts. Not time to post just now but will try to do so later today.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO not making much of a meal out of this trough by T144:

38D18782-554F-4E7C-AF43-5D361E93FE7D.thumb.gif.27603ec61e9b12ae4ed3da84e3624c34.gif

Still has 1020 hPa in the SW.  

Edit, even more so GFS, T144, 1025 hPa widespread:

EE7CDAE3-B8F1-4DC9-AFD8-8CD0AC6206C6.thumb.png.29cd1e4fed0854e8066ba79c88740fac.png

Has anyone noticed yet that at this sort of range, when the models are heralding the resurgence of the atlantic, it gets watered down.  

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...