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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    GFS is fine, it does bleed away the heat pretty quickly and its probably one of the less good evolutions of what is possible, but bar perhaps a blip on Tuesday  its still pretty pleasant, pretty similar to what we are getting today, pretty sunny with temps 22-25c. Still lovely summer weather.

    ECM has alot more cloud but as someone pointed out yesterday it does have a habit of overdoing cloud deck to an extent. It does also have a frontal push from the SW later next week.

    Before we talk about any evolution away from heat, Saturday and Sunday looking very warm, Sunday could well end up being locally hot, hopeful we will see a 30-31c locally, with a higher chance on Sunday at the moment but thats far enough out to shift a day forward/back still.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Looking towards the months end, the longer range anomaly upper air temp charts continue to show excessive heat in the Western United States including British Columbia and SW Russia. However, Its has been noticed how cold the summer has been in Northern Greenland to Svalbard. I wonder  what the cause of this is ?

    C

    GFSOPNH00_384_34.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The GFS 06z is an ok run with what should be a great spell Fri-Mon, but again in the Tuesday to Thursday period it’s a pretty outlier to the rest of its ensembles, again will be interesting to see if the higher resolution run is picking out things in greater detail with regards to the trough dropping down the east coast. In the last three of four days I can’t remember one occasion when the GFS Ops run has sided with its ensembles? 
     

    Also that solution leads to a breakdown of zero interest, the country gets flooded with cooler more stable air so no fireworks what so ever. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro aside that seems the more likely outcome this morning as all models essentially delay the Wednesday attack and just dissolve the high as it shifts north west. The end result being what I would assume is a cloudy cooler flow from the east until a low finally moves up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not a bad GEFS pair of temperature ensembles; even next week's 'Big Freeze' is a two-day-operational-outlier-special!👍

    t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow

    Anyone able to give me some guidance on what in the models has caused Sat & Sun in Glasgow to go from being forecast at 27c and sunny yesterday to 21c and cloudy today?

    Is it just the position of the high?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    8 minutes ago, bomdabass said:

    Anyone able to give me some guidance on what in the models has caused Sat & Sun in Glasgow to go from being forecast at 27c and sunny yesterday to 21c and cloudy today?

    Is it just the position of the high?

    Would suspect that it is wrong given your near enough the center but the center of the high is just to your south bringing a westerly flow and Glasgow is coastal. The models have generally kept the high a bit further west than previously suggested to prolong it.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well it looks like all systems go for that trough developing east of the U.K. for a time next week.
    image.thumb.gif.33e52bae7cf34247cb55ecd83d23fec4.gif

    UKMO now showing a cold front moving south Sunday and into the following week.

    Saturday still looks good for all but the process of the high pulling north west slightly begins on Sunday. The timing will determine how much of the U.K. has a fine and sunny Sunday.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Looks like the GFS 12z is starting to take chunks out of the warmth for the north during Sunday. By Tuesday everywhere back to average (expect ROI) in the most boring breakdown in recent history. Just cool surface air from the north east, UKMO looks similar. Nowt TS action to be seen.

    ATM seems like all those ‘cool outliers’ from GFS were on the money.

    Although interestingly Thurs/Fri it may look like GFS is trying to return some warmth aid by the weak cut off out west.

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    So another shot at a good few days of hot weather is taken away. We just don't seem to be able to get a decent break this summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Important to note that uppers are still plenty warm before then so 25-30C is still possible/probable somewhere like Cheltenham during the weekend. 

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GEM less enthusiastic about the trough to the east so good news there however it already looks like GFS & UKMO vs GEM and given this mornings ECM it’s probably going to be on its own. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Important to note that uppers are still plenty warm before then so 25-30C is still possible/probable somewhere like Cheltenham during the weekend. 

    Weekend looks great, but in reality three warm days Sat-Mon here doesn’t help make up for one the dullest and wettest summer periods in recent history (last 30years).

    A poor day 10 chart from GFS 

    D060483D-1193-4749-8778-8683458A2BB4.thumb.png.f6020134147c7d8049439b6e273f3e72.png

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Location: Suffolk

    Damn people really complaining about a high pressure dominated pattern that looks to last to the end of next week with, relatively clear skies for most, dry and temps in mid-twenties. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looking at the GFS and like the UKMO the angle is much worse for heat lovers such that by Monday/Tuesday there will be a weak surface flow from the north east (and i suspect cloud away from the evenings). After that and it largely fits in with the pattern seen this morning as the high essentially just dissolves over time and an upper low moves up from the south west closer to day 9. Hot and dry over the weekend to mild and muggy seems the order of the day.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Saturday;

    image.thumb.png.7053dbfab8e8081aa0f4ceb3659acc16.png
     

    30c possible somewhere across the north Midlands. The GFS has 28c for the same area so certainly possible we could break the 30c mark for the first time this year. Mid to high twenties widespread away from direct coastlines.

    Central/south England  get a chance on Sunday.

    image.thumb.png.2dc6c9620732c9d76641f0b69c3584b3.png
     

    You can already see where the front is sitting, on the Arpege this has reached northern England by late afternoon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    7 minutes ago, eastangliawx said:

    Damn people really complaining about a high pressure dominated pattern that looks to last to the end of next week with, relatively clear skies for most, dry and temps in mid-twenties. 

    If that were true, I'd agree with you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    So another shot at a good few days of hot weather is taken away. We just don't seem to be able to get a decent break this summer.

    Pretty frustrating! A couple of days ago it looked like the warm high would really dominate over the UK for a week, now it’s been depleted to a cool down into Monday onwards. Hopefully it’ll reorientate nicely like the UKMO run and keep the mucky troughs either side of us!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Both ICON and GEM delay the trough activity to east to give much warmer Monday’s and Tuesdays. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Location: Suffolk
    7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    If that were true, I'd agree with you.

    It is, all i see is people moaning about a dry cold front, gfs has temps 23c+ most days after Monday, would equate to mid twenties in reality. No rain from most until end of next week earliest 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    The prize money should go to GFS. Its been very spot on with everything ending early. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    The prize money should go to GFS. Its been very spot on with everything ending early. 

    Hasn't happened yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    The prize money should go to GFS. Its been very spot on with everything ending early. 

    Spot on with something ending that hasnt started yet?🤔🤔🤔🤔

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