model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Pretty good EC / gfs this evening. I'd suspect a mix and match over the next 48/72 hours  output wise but still no sign of anything atm bringing very mild  sw winds long term "hopefully" All good in the hood!! 

Used up our quota of long fetch SW airstream in October I feel! Reminds me of Nov 09 in some respect.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

In the more immediate, getting on for 200mm of rain in Cumbria over the next 2 days, and this is the UKMO, for once outdoing the ECM by a slither (splash).

UKMO / ECM accumulated total precipitation 

 

This includes over 150mm over the highest ground in just 24 hours through to the end of tomorrow according to the ECM, but there’s in excess of 100mm over quite a wide area. That could get a bit serious.

Yes I'm in the bullseye.. synoptics reminscent indeed carbon copy of Dec 5 2015 and Nov 19 2009, both times brought exceptional flooding. Oh joy!

[Red Raven]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes I'm in the bullseye.. synoptics reminscent indeed carbon copy of Dec 5 2015 and Nov 19 2009, both times brought exceptional flooding. Oh joy!

The similarities to both those times are rather worrying. 

[Kentspur]

5 hours ago, jon snow said:

The latest update has flipped towards more wintry in tone, it says below average several times, even cold with predominantly NW’ly winds, perhaps veering N’ly at times (meridional)…unless I’ve read it wrong?..but some of today’s models, for example the early Gfs / ECM support our weather coming more from the NW during the outlook mid / longer term!   

I wouldn't normally be bothered by NWly or Nly winds dominating longer term but as I'm off to to my twice already rescheduled Scottish Highlands break in 5 weeks I'm well up for it! What's the best direction for snowfalls in the Aviemore&Boat of Garten area? I definitely live in the worst area of the country for NWly/Nly winds! Although its usually dry blue skies and crisp clean air as some of the models suggest an anticyclonic type further ahead 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Kentspur

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Red Raven said:

The similarities to both those times are rather worrying. 

Indeed, but unlike those occasions the ground water levels are not as high nor river and lake levels..  the ground I'd not quite as saturated and there is much vegetation still about.. however, I do expect widespread localised flooding given the high anticipated amounts. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey,...i have used most of my likes up already and i know why!!!

good evening all and how are you all,i have seen so busy with the situation in La Palma with the volcano(i love volcanoes),with media input across the net etc but i have also been lurking on this great forum too and model watching also but now i am here as there is interest growing for things to turn cooler maybe colder than of late

what i have been and seeing in the models(and still seeing) is that the Azores hp cell is starting to wane/migrate further W/SW in time to allow the cold floodgates from the N/NW with systems tracking on a NW>SE trajectory into NW Europe

lets have a look at the day ten plus anomalies  from both the EPS and CPC/NOAA,...marked trough to our NE,hp cell mid Atlantic with mean upper flow from the NW plus that Aleutian low is still there 

A look at the EPS clusters up to day ten and the det in cluster 1 and reflects what i mentioned above

"LET WINTER COMENCE"

C U for now

Oh and just to add a snippet from MH if he doesn't mind...

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[ICE COLD]

GFS 18z bringing in reasonably cold uppers

Edited October 26, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Allseasons-Si]

BTW,...i am liking the 18z gfs from day ten>

500 heights at 240 and 850's temps at 258.

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[ICE COLD]

This is gonna turn into a good FI again

Edited October 26, 2021 by ICE COLD

[ICE COLD]

So close to being brilliant 

 

Big Northerly incoming

Edited October 26, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF but oh my!!!...

[swfc]

18z gfs says goodbye Atlantic sees you laterFor so early in the season the ridging and blocking is great to see. Also keeping the pressure low to the sse of Europe is a bonus. Primed for the flood gates to open to the north and lock in a much cooler/cold period. Granted all in fi but great synoptics and bodes well heading towards winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 27/10/2021 at 00:18, Allseasons-si said:

JFF but oh my!!!...

Yep, silly season has began. Wonderful chart.

[SLEETY]

Plenty of blocking in the high regions again, maybe a winter season like spring we had which was cold, if the trend continues 

[northwestsnow]

EC 00Z ...

Big change overnight ...

 

[mb018538]

Morning all,

Not posted much recently as I've been working, been away and just had a bit of a break. Let's see what the charts are showing us today...

For the next 10 days it's looking either wet or very wet for most areas. NW Wales/England & Scotland look at big risk from flooding - with rainfall lasting more or less non stop for the next 2-3 days in some areas. Met Office have forecast 4-6 inches (100-150mm) of rain in the worst affected areas, so there will be big impacts here.




Longer term on the GFS this morning the op run doesn't have much to show in the polar view - which could be a result of the PV quickly rebounding from it's current weak state to above average into the first week of November:


 

We may have to wait a bit further into the month for anything noteworthy, and our best bet could be some MJO movement into phase 5/6, which tends to promote blocking high out to the W/NW of the UK (see MJO composite analogues below, from Paul Roundy's excellent site)

 





 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by mb018538

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00Z ...

Big change overnight ...

 

Those day 9/10 charts are about as bog standard as you can get for late autumn in the UK. Boriiiiiiiiiing.

[bluearmy]

23 hours ago, bluearmy said:

wouldn’t throw this day 10 profile for early November out of bed ……
 

In stark contrast, this morning’s version is akin to wandering around a club at 1:30 am …….

[Faronstream]

GFS 00Z is another mild outlier, we have seen this many times with the GFS model it's turning out to be one of the worst models out there for reliability

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In stark contrast, this morning’s version is akin to wandering around a club at 1:30 am …….

The first goose chase of the " cold season "

Prepare yourself for more of that Blue 

Yes,I was ruminating about a bitter North Easterly next week with snow showers piling into the North( in fairness there was some cold air across the North Sea recently) ...

Anyway,  GFS is a mild outlier so there is of course the possibility EC det is too.

 

 

[Frosty.]

The models are all handling it differently but there’s no downgrade to the GEFS 0z mean regarding the potential for a much colder broadly NW’ly flow into early November, there could be quite a strong polar maritime blast, perhaps even veering to arctic maritime?…probably brief but possibly sustainable depending on the general jet alignment if it’s more NW / SE?…anyway, there’s a chance!  

 

[sheikhy]

Amazing how just 12 hours makes a difference when viewing models!bedlam last night with all that blocking on the 12zs and now the ecm this morning showing pretty much a very well organised pv towards the end!lets hope we can get back to the blocking on the 12zs!

[Methuselah]

Oh well, this morning's GFS 00Z run is nothing to write home about. We are, it seems, just meandering our way into winter?

    

    

    

But, as with all NWPMs, chaos always takes over, eventually! And, as the GEFS temperature ensembles show, the operational run is on the warm side of the pack. Well, it's always on one side or the other!

    

Edited October 27, 2021 by Ed Stone

[swfc]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The first goose chase of the " cold season "

Prepare yourself for more of that Blue 

Yes,I was ruminating about a bitter North Easterly next week with snow showers piling into the North( in fairness there was some cold air across the North Sea recently) ...

Anyway,  GFS is a mild outlier so there is of course the possibility EC det is too.

 

 

Tbh northwestsnow I'd suspect a balloon data issue this morning

[mb018538]

ECM is a slight mild outlier at the end of the run. Pressure mean shows an improvement by day 8-10 with the deep low pressure lifting away.