model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

but the Met office hardly ever says below even when it is happening. 

The latest update has flipped towards more wintry in tone, it says below average several times, even cold with predominantly NW’ly winds, perhaps veering N’ly at times (meridional)…unless I’ve read it wrong?..but some of today’s models, for example the early Gfs / ECM support our weather coming more from the NW during the outlook mid / longer term!   

Edited October 26, 2021 by jon snow

[masheeuk]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I only ever look at individual model runs with the Met Office's monthly forecast in mind -- they do, after all, know far more than I ever will. But, anyway, here are the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles for Cambridgeshire:

    

You are joking I hope. I wouldn't trust the Met Office to get the date for Christmas right!

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, masheeuk said:

You are joking I hope. I wouldn't trust the Met Office to get the date for Christmas right!

So, who would you suggest one puts one's faith in, then? 

Bill (goodness me, my hedgehogs are playing up!) Fogget, BFTP, Piers (holds his graphs upside-down) Corbyn or Big (brutal cold) Joe Bastardi?

Sometimes I do wonder!

[swfc]

12z gfs another theme on the 6z and its a good theme. Some very subtle areas of high pressure delevoping esp from the Arctic threw svalbard. Nothing dramatic on the ground but keep the low heights going into Europe and no slug high and not a bad footing heading into the next month

[Eagle Eye]

On 26/10/2021 at 18:00, Ed Stone said:

So, who would you suggest one puts one's faith in, then? 

Bill (goodness me, my hedgehogs are playing up!) Fogget, BFTP, Piers (holds his graphs upside-down) Corbyn or Big (brutal cold) Joe Bastardi?

Sometimes I do wonder!

You could always include me in there, I'm obviously the most reliable with what little reading into fluid dynamics I've done 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, who would you suggest one puts one's faith in, then? 

Bill (goodness me, my hedgehogs are playing up!) Fogget, BFTP, Piers (holds his graphs upside-down) Corbyn or Big (brutal cold) Joe Bastardi?

Sometimes I do wonder!

Do the met use seaweed ed. I think the output is on the change and its reflected in there forecast. 

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

You could always include me in there, I'm obviously the most reliable with what little reading into fluid dynamics I've done 

But do you understand hedgehog behaviour? You must get your priorities right, EE. And, don't forget to read up on your berries!

Edited October 26, 2021 by Ed Stone
Found a marble!

[Eagle Eye]

On 26/10/2021 at 18:09, Ed Stone said:

But do you understand hedgehog behaviour? You must get you priorities right, EE. And, don't forget to read up on your berries!

Don't forget the person who used asparagus 

[Mapantz]

Can we stick to model discussion please?

Plenty of other threads to discuss the other stuff.

[Battleground Snow]

First eye candy in GFS FI.. decent cold pool for mid November in Europe.

[Frosty.]

I’m quite excited by the Gfs 12z operational, well as excited as one could be by a T+384 hour chart.. ..I will love it if we get some cold spells next month!

 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by jon snow

[ICE COLD]

In 16 days time the beast from the east is going to pay us an early visit, we’ll according to the GFS 12z op . Nice to look at anyway . The big chase begins

[Methuselah]

Sleet in Great Yarmouth?!?!?!   Holy sheet!

[Eagle Eye]

Is that snow flakes falling south of the Scottish border before the great freeze of December the 25th engulfs the whole of Britian 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean suggests a colder shot from the NW / N in very early November, polar / arctic maritime?…duration and potency are up in the air at the moment but at least there’s potential for something wintery in the not too distant future, for some of us!!!  

Edited October 26, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

The CHASE is on!!!! 

 

[swfc]

Pretty good EC / gfs this evening. I'd suspect a mix and match over the next 48/72 hours  output wise but still no sign of anything atm bringing very mild  sw winds long term "hopefully" All good in the hood!! 

Edited October 26, 2021 by swfc

[Cambrian]

In the more immediate, getting on for 200mm of rain in Cumbria over the next 2 days, and this is the UKMO, for once outdoing the ECM by a slither (splash).

UKMO / ECM accumulated total precipitation 

 

This includes over 150mm over the highest ground in just 24 hours through to the end of tomorrow according to the ECM, but there’s in excess of 100mm over quite a wide area. That could get a bit serious.

[northwestsnow]

ec about to introduce a cold anti cyclone  at day 10..

Edited October 26, 2021 by northwestsnow

[stodge]

Evening all

I can imagine the end to the GFS 12Z OP will have got quite a few salivating - the classic stand off between the Scandinavian HP and the undercutting Atlantic trough - happy days.

In the shorter term, it does look as though as the trough finally digs south to the east, we'll lose the balmy (or barmy) SW'lies and revert to a much cooler NW'ly flow for a few days.

T+192 for the 12Z suite from GFS Control, OP, GEM and ECM

The interplay between the Atlantic HP and the sub-tropical LP looks key to how this will play out. GEM creates a significant LP to the west of the Azores which means more of an Atlantic ridge and a more defined N'ly. Others keep the trough much closer in the North Sea - either way, it's much cooler and more unsettled than what we are currently enjoying.

ECM ends with a lovely chilly November NE'ly - yes, I'm not convinced either.

 

[Frosty.]

I must admit, Bully got a bit excited by this ECM 12z chart showing a dartboard low!…..one hundred and eighty!!! ..or should that be 975..or 970..!!  

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

And here they are, with much ado: the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles for Cheshire! And, aren't they exciting? No? Och well. Beggars can't be choosers?

    

[ICE COLD]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ec about to introduce a cold anti cyclone  at day 10..

Yer the day 10 chart is good . That would be setting up a cold bonfire weekend. Be nice to have a crisp bonfire night for once . Plenty of cold air to the north and north east as well  

Edited October 26, 2021 by ICE COLD

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Have to say the models are honing in on the La Nina HP position but with the   LP s moving SSE over the UK to bring in  relatively cold conditions.  Quite early interest showing.  Last year wasn’t a typical La Nina pattern, will this winter be?

 

 BFTP

[Eagle Eye]

Looking good in the near future hopefully this can block out the high for long enough until the undercut can happen which it looks like it will

Edited October 26, 2021 by Eagle Eye