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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
On 14/10/2021 at 21:24, Eagle Eye said:

15 October 14:00

0Z

image.thumb.png.37e56d60a145933d1ae508205d1c2691.png

6Z

image.thumb.png.04778f2aff0a90928cb2ec63c71e9b74.png

Ouctome as of now

image.thumb.png.2cba215ecfeb263bbcdc73f5bd241e31.png

Future predictions

Continued slight southeast movement with the eastern movement of the low towards Britian with a better centred low early on

16 October 14:00

0Z

image.thumb.png.542ae33e32faa3c8eadeda67c08d805e.png

6Z

image.thumb.png.c81f8a3e33381f6ed62e29caea111ebe.png

Outcome as of now

image.thumb.png.bc2ea41b7ae3062955f887f71cbb1793.png

Future predictions

Further southeast movement continues with the weakenining of the low and the slight movement of the high on the western side to the North.

17 October 14:00

0Z

image.thumb.png.83370422fe8fc2565afde092da6cd9cb.png

6Z

image.thumb.png.2b615bb8479113240809082bfa138899.png

Outcome as of now

image.thumb.png.0f38edcb4cdbede6236dadb2dbcdd41e.png

Future predictions

As it continues further south although the western side moves northeast so stage 2 sets over the United Kingdom the low to the west devlops further but not as much as before.

18 October 14:00

0Z

image.thumb.png.24157d959ba8e0c2645c3e4fd50c559d.png

6Z

image.thumb.png.b4eddd7df5613ae003f95027eb9c4dd9.png

Outcome as of now

image.thumb.png.561cc0fe35590d76a2f1e16465f13c32.png

Future predictions

The low to the west continues building closer to Britian and Ireland which pushes the high south and the second stage of the high's eastern side pushes into Scandanavia which pushes what i'm calling stage 3, the low in Russia pushing into the high squeezing further into Europe. This shows how a little change can cause a change in the entirity of the run.

Future predictions in 1 paragraph

Continued slight southeast movement with the eastern movement of the low towards Britian with a better centred low early on, further southeast movement continues with the weakenining of the low and the slight movement of the high on the western side to the North. As it continues further south although the western side moves northeast so stage 2 sets over the United Kingdom the low to the west devlops further but not as much as before. The low to the west continues building closer to Britian and Ireland which pushes the high south and the second stage of the high's eastern side pushes into Scandanavia which pushes what i'm calling stage 3, the low in Russia pushing into the high squeezing further into Europe. This shows how a little change can cause a change in the entirity of the run.

Eagle Eye

image.png

image.png

image.png

Great post @Eagle Eye, like your forecast to a degree, the next few weeks could be critical. If we get the cold blast early it could be a great winter for us coldies. Could do with a settled winter for work purposes but still hoping its cold, which I believe every year.

Ever the optimist for cold ❄

Would love a real freezing xmas spell this year, not seen in my experience since the 90's. If we get an early cold spell it will give us a chance of the holy grail we coldies crave

Great posting again, reading every post keeps me entertained. Agree or not. White crimbo for me, get your bets on

As Mike has said it does seem a strange pattern atm.

Strong pattern/trend for a turn to cold for me. For what its worth, it looks good.

Will do a forecast soon, thanks to all for your efforts everyone producing great posts to read. God bless

Long live  

And epic cold winters x

 

Edited by icykev
Looking East & North,
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Can we stick to model discussion only, please?

We have various threads for posts dreaming about Winter, or general weather discussion.

Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
On 14/10/2021 at 22:51, Mapantz said:

Can we stick to model discussion only, please?

We have various threads for posts dreaming about Winter, or general weather discussion.

Thanks. 

Thanks yeah out of line to post in the wrong thread when its busy. Will add a few charts and some informative charts next time.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
On 14/10/2021 at 22:34, icykev said:

Great post @Eagle Eye, like your forecast to a degree, the next few weeks could be critical. If we get the cold blast early it could be a great winter for us coldies. Could do with a settled winter for work purposes but still hoping its cold, which I believe every year.

Ever the optimist for cold ❄

Would love a real freezing xmas spell this year, not seen in my experience since the 90's. If we get an early cold spell it will give us a chance of the holy grail we coldies crave

Great posting again, reading every post keeps me entertained. Agree or not. White crimbo for me, get your bets on

As Mike has said it does seem a strange pattern atm.

Strong pattern/trend for a turn to cold for me. For what its worth, it looks good.

Will do a forecast soon, thanks to all for your efforts everyone producing great posts to read. God bless

Long live  

And epic cold winters x

 

Thanks for your kind comments, as of today I will be testing editing the Models to show these stages which I will set over the UK mainly and sorrounding areas which directly or indirectly affect our weather. Unfortunately my phone battery won't last long enough to do a proper forecast well into the future so the further out I go I will get more generalised just as the Models do seem to get further out. 

Xander 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

I can see why there are hardly any posts this morning!we back to the flat crappy stuff on the 00zs!!!seems like ecm may have had one to many last night!!!ah well on we go.....!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
35 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I can see why there are hardly any posts this morning!we back to the flat crappy stuff on the 00zs!!!seems like ecm may have had one to many last night!!!ah well on we go.....!!

Makes me laugh really, seen countless posts from people saying the high pressure is boring and they want something more autumnal to enjoy.....well, people are going to get their wish with the Atlantic waking up next week, and still nobody is interested or posting about it  

No real change in the outlook, western areas bearing the brunt of the wettest weather, with the east drier. Exact rainfall amounts will depend on where the lows track and how active/slowly or quickly they sit over affected areas.

image.thumb.png.42738b0245cb5399aac47a381c2f5e92.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

I can see why there are hardly any posts this morning!we back to the flat crappy stuff on the 00zs!!!seems like ecm may have had one to many last night!!!ah well on we go.....!!

Never fear GFS 6z is here.

 

Also icon lining up a good Northerly shot.

gfsnh-0-162.png

iconnh-0-120.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If one enjoys very mild Octobers (like me!) this morning's GFS 06Z is for you!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, booferking said:

Also icon lining up a good Northerly shot.

 

Ja, ich liebe das icon!    ❤️ …wunderbar  

6D1EB064-A172-474F-9D6C-FFDF94B6EE49.thumb.png.c3dec3f33799f6864bc9a9d31073be53.png1F615CF7-ED15-4EDD-9154-811383534A96.thumb.png.a1ef766fda7b590dbf63036f968a8b07.png

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There's definitely a cold snap in amongst the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There's definitely a cold snap in amongst the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

You could be right Ed..fair dinkum!  

3986402E-C885-45C6-8A1A-D25F42939018.thumb.png.3c54d50a6e8288424e4746f5e88233a4.png2FA758B7-A0B9-452E-B0E2-69ECD99CEC5C.thumb.png.db3536d1b696be1066b8cae4ce059f31.png14A45251-8D5B-4244-99DC-EF7D483493B3.thumb.png.fb548ae1e9cbff14f4c2b924618f336c.pngC76F4FB6-D6C5-4F89-99DC-027A008D289F.thumb.png.fc65ec95a9d54a4621e72566de37ce0c.png40E7ABA1-752B-4755-A6D1-D301E9C5ED64.thumb.png.144cdbebe869c45a2f1463e9f7edd6c0.pngD7A13B5A-69C7-4114-982A-AEB8545566A4.thumb.png.02e34e53c0bbbf174a1f6dd924e1f565.png1C860A9D-AFF2-41FC-98B6-D2F76D0BB837.thumb.png.426b1ed30515fe395e3ecfc11204e0ad.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
On 07/10/2021 at 16:05, Tamara said:

As wind shear c/o the wall of La Nina trade winds weakens the MJO thunderstorm development attempting to encroach the Equatorial Pacific, then tropical convection suppression occurs and the advancing westerly wind burst gets stopped in its tracks. The low frequency walker cell signal re-emerges and its then a case of seeing how the Atlantic ridge evolves to take over the downstream pattern as the wavelength is re-set from renewed amplification in the Pacific.

In broad weather terms this translates to a pleasant fairly warm (by UK standards) spell of weather and continued very balmy summerlike weather down here in SW Europe with more days of circa 28C to 30C to come. Thereafter, a signal for the downstream ridge to break down and some kind of amplified longwave trough crossing west to east across N Europe and Atlantic ridging behind it with wet and windy weather followed by chillier showery conditions with NW winds. Further south west in europe, a good chance that this trough will repeat the recent sequence and provide a day or two of (relatively) cooler weather with some rain before renewed ridging from the nearby Azores settles things down again.

With all the usual time of year discussion that is attempting to match high frequency tropical convection forecasts to try to find and fit analogue composites with cold weather preference outcomes, its worth re=posting this real-time analysis. Real-time analysis doesn't seek to find desired outcomes but instead ranges of all probabilistic outcomes as means to be realistic rather than ideological. Therefore whilst obviously human error can and does occur with the diagnostics involved, there is less chance at least of being prone to larger error due to the lack of attempting to fit a diagnostic to a bias.

As suggested previously in the quoted section, the numerical modelling has duly latched on to the evolution of an amplified longwave trough edging eastwards across NW Europe towards Scandinavia as the upstream wavelength re-sets the Pacific ridge and downstream sequence to an Atlantic ridge and an upper trough over N Europe. Angular momentum tendency set to fall with -ve torques scrubbing westerly inertia out of the atmosphere and adding more -ve inertia easterlies.  This, as a result of the MJO high frequency tropical convection beating a retreat due to the ongoing La Nina trade winds roadblocking at the dateline and the point of inflection where easterlies replace westerlies being where re-amplification of the Pacific wavelength takes place.

On this basis alone, simply taking the MJO in isolation and fitting it to composites as a kind of magic bullet to find desired outcomes is fraught with error because the total wind-flow budget in the atmospheric circulation also comprises extra-tropical circulation and how that responds to forcing from the tropics.  A much more reliable guide is to look at the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) which comprises aggregated tropical and extra tropical forcing - though even here the composites that can be created from the total wind-flow budget has to be accorded to each situation on its own merits with no one rule fits all synoptic outcome. 

The GWO has attempted to break out of the La Nina attractor phases, as part of the temporary interference from the eastward progressing high frequency tropical convection cycle, but it is to be noted how weak this has been, ahead of tropical forcing becoming weak and incoherent and hence the signal for another fall in angular momentum to cement the base state heading into late autumn (and early winter). This means that the GWO is set to head back through Phase 8 into the Nina phases 1,2 and 3 as part of the upcoming upstream amplification.

2023894642_GWOOct.thumb.GIF.d1ac785535ca611ad6b1ebc36d1cec97.GIF

Caution needs to be applied with making assumptions about NWP indications of amplification at longer ranges. Not necessarily the amount of amplification, but the fact that the consolidating of La Nina forcing in the Pacific, without any mitigating means any time soon to re-interrupt that wavelength, increasingly points to a Pacific ridge dominated stranglehold profile and with time more wind-flow added to the polar jet and the polar vortex re-assigning itself towards the pole. Yet another means to re-state that there is nothing whatsoever unusual about the current NH profile, either taken in conjunction with the spring and summer pattern or extrapolating ahead as means to hope for a cold winter.

There is a long way, in weather terms, as to what the coming season has to offer - whatever the numerical weekly or seasonal modelling may, or may not indicate. For a small minority at least, the main interest is enjoying what continues to be on offer, at the same time as periodically reviewing things according to weekly//two weekly analysis rather than the whataboutery of two/three months ahead.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z showing nothing whatsoever unusual by T180:

75BB0C35-609F-4F82-9A55-AE82E7F02025.thumb.png.f220cd15a5055dbba50e865b42dff9be.png

Aye but it shows something before T180! …nice to see the pros finally mentioning below average temps and a risk of northern high ground snow later next week after some of us have been saying it for days now!  

34DE00D2-9A22-4B89-AD59-1949A6E26483.thumb.png.36f43c3ff6eacfcbedfeac3363bda46b.png3BA90F3F-C9C8-4025-B5B6-FF9779798F0A.thumb.png.7f091e52856bee58f02b1de478f917eb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh well, not the most exciting GFS 12Z run I've ever seen:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

12z UKMO deepens the incoming low a bit more than the GFS op at 96h, 970mb compared to 980mb.

UKMO / GFS

400CC227-2389-4897-A987-27E0A76027E0.thumb.png.68bab199984fd26bf54d8f8f464b85ae.png 7C58B3EA-1A44-4E34-8D27-1FDF54725114.thumb.png.414fc8de053ea5b7268e688e9a76da6d.png

 

it keeps it deeper and the centre further west over us at 120h, while the GFS is in a bit more of a rush to clear it out to the North Sea.

UKMO / GFS

7FDBAF72-1A33-42BC-A9D5-E560F34FA978.thumb.png.843c031f2ef146768e8ea5258ec3147f.png 8341686D-C11D-4246-983A-850EBA904FAF.thumb.png.26177e4db7f53d8b5a24501ea1d897b2.png


Then the UKMO holds the trough over us more cleanly at 144h, with what looks like a small feature developing over northern parts, holding back the clear-out and keeping us in the colder flow, whereas the GFS has cleared out most of the trough and bounces the Azores high straight back up into Biscay.

UKMO / GFS

1702A32A-63E3-48F7-829A-EC37659E3D4F.thumb.png.44cd1dc7dcd91d80c04e7149e31faf11.png E4ACB9F1-1FBA-4DEF-BF39-AB3FFA463711.thumb.png.cc7519f161d7870b1b3e707aefc4eb4c.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows there’s good support for a northerly next Friday with arctic air digging down across most of the u k, it soon subsides and is followed by a brief ridge of high pressure which is followed by a return to unsettled / Atlantic conditions which continues for the rest of the run although probably gradually becoming more of a north-south split with the s / se tending to be less unsettled than the n / nw.

B05FDA91-C39F-475C-940F-161F499BA198.thumb.png.6aa3ab6d7b7cd7108514384b97c25407.pngC1E3AA5E-26D0-499E-8EF7-C6D1377F73A0.thumb.png.e3c9e23e1bb9232e74789f59b7f77221.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Some things never change regarding getting some cold 850s to these shores . Cant even manage a bit of frost these days . 
 

ECM T192 yesterday ❤️4AE84F2E-CE4B-435F-B9F9-80B73FF4E109.thumb.png.55563280f8d0ebf8f1e33ff2a9a2c785.png

ECM T168 today 3043A569-E8A6-4F33-99A9-F1A92B882B73.thumb.png.649201beb5473882b0b9e21ea0a93a61.png

Hope this ant what’s gonna happen again all winter but hay we’re used to it  lol  

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

image.thumb.png.757a1c49c380e8ee7f5ce570f0c583ea.png

Well now, of little import to the UK but this is a very cold run for Scandinavia and that's a decent little cold wave pushing through Finland and Sweden.

Nearer to home, the heights to the NE promoting negative alignment of the trough sending LP ESE through the British Isles into Europe.

Interesting to see if this trend continues or develops later in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well there’s no northerly on the ECM 12z operational, but it’s only mid October so I don’t care!… …actually I do care and if it was winter I would really care but it’s the same old story, just when the pros start talking about below average temps and hill snow..it gets warmer! …actually, this run isn’t even particularly unsettled, indeed it’s half decent at times further s / se!…..next..  …. 

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

The UKMO extended is the best for regarding the promise of extending colder conditions over the UK compared to the other models at 168t. This chart not as mobile to displace the colder air mass as the other models show. Unfortunately, the extended UKMO charts tend to revert in the next run back towards what the other models show. We will see in the morning run tomorrow,

C

UKMHDOPEU12_168_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
50 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Some things never change regarding getting some cold 850s to these shores . Cant even manage a bit of frost these days . 
 

ECM T192 yesterday ❤️4AE84F2E-CE4B-435F-B9F9-80B73FF4E109.thumb.png.55563280f8d0ebf8f1e33ff2a9a2c785.png

ECM T168 today 3043A569-E8A6-4F33-99A9-F1A92B882B73.thumb.png.649201beb5473882b0b9e21ea0a93a61.png

Hope this ant what’s gonna happen again all winter but hay we’re used to it  lol  

I think a brief northerly is still on the cards, although less likely, for example JMA 12z T168:

BD45267A-0471-4115-9AAC-4AACFE18EE34.thumb.gif.371dcb42b44d20cf928e53ff5796fec9.gif

Have to say though, I’m not that interested in a brief northerly in October, more on what the models are saying about the NH pattern as we edge closer to winter, and, as I have said before, that looks unusual to me, which is fine, and certainly isn’t a firm prediction of a cold winter or anything (some people seem to read things into posts that aren’t there sometimes), it is just ‘interesting’ and it will be fascinating to watch the evolution over the next 6 weeks, I think.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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