model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

From the GFS 06Z:                                                                                                   

But make the most of it!

[Methuselah]

Maybe I was a tad premature, when I effectively dismissed a European 'heat pump'?

    

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational shows some wintry weather across the north later next week, especially the far north where there could be some snow, ice and frosty weather due to arctic air..feeling more like winter than mid autumn…across the northern half of scotland?!

 

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

From the GFS 06Z:                                                                                                   

But make the most of it!

Can't see any appeal from the chart above, yes mild, but strong winds overcast or wet skies..

Edited October 13, 2021 by damianslaw

[Don]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe I was a tad premature, when I effectively dismissed a European 'heat pump'?

    

What we don't want is the European 'heat pump' erasing early snow from Scandinavia/Siberia, unless you like it mild! 

[Frosty.]

There’s decent support from the GEFS 6z for a very early wintry blast across the far north later next week with arctic air digging south with varying degrees of success?…not all the ensembles support it but it’s certainly worth mentioning…well I think so at least! 
 

Beyond next weeks unsettled weather… ? conditions gradually ease according to the mean with more of a northwest-southeast split, the northwest staying unsettled but the southeast becoming relatively drier and brighter. ️ 

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

48 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't see any appeal from the chart above, yes mild, but strong winds overcast or wet skies..

Well, I guess that depends upon whether you prefer warm rain to cold rain, Damian?

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I guess that depends upon whether you prefer warm rain to cold rain, Damian?

A long drawn southwesterly wind will drag up endless amounts of cloud, rain and strong winds so a mild/warm feel won't really add anything meaningful. Have to say, looks pretty grim. Though if any clear spells were to occur I imagine it would feel warm. Otherwise, cloud, wind and heavy rain with 17C minima looks gross. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

A long drawn southwesterly wind will drag up endless amounts of cloud, rain and strong winds so a mild/warm feel won't really add anything meaningful. Have to say, looks pretty grim. Though if any clear spells were to occur I imagine it would feel warm. Otherwise, cloud, wind and heavy rain with 17C minima looks gross. 

Since when was weather meaningful?

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I guess that depends upon whether you prefer warm rain to cold rain, Damian?

Grim synoptics either way for Cumbria. 14/15 degrees under heavily rain this time of year never feels warm. It is indeed my least favourite airstream anytime of year.. yet all too common latter part of the year. Synoptics that depress me to be honest.

Edited October 13, 2021 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

T144 pretty similar on UKMO and GFS this evening, unsettled incoming:

But with nothing upstream driving it at the moment, it could be quite a slow moving system as it crosses the UK.  

[Mike Poole]

I know some are seeing normal autumn after the settled spell, but to me it looks nothing like normal, take GFS 12z T192, you’d normally expect more from the Atlantic than this, Z500 and anomaly:

[Methuselah]

BORING!     

 

[Mike Poole]

It still looks to me like there is a 5 wave pattern on the ECM T96 with a high over the pole:

Until circumstances change and this meridional signal is reduced, there is no opportunity for a zonal onslaught…

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

BORING!     

 

Look at the mid latitude high stretches all the way from east USA coast into Siberia.. doesn't quite look right in the Atlantic that trough should be digging deeper south indeed a NW blast likely quickly thereafter.

[Cambrian]

UKMO, GFS and GEM ops all trending to unsettled and eventually colder weather at 144h, differences in the timing that’s all. 
UKMO / GFS / GEM

  

 

After that, GEM is my favourite this evening. - picks up on the low off Newfoundland at 168h, engaging it with the trough

 

and boy, does it blow it up?! Slightly milder as a result as it whips up a westerly in front of it around day 8 and 9, bringing the low our way….

   

 

but then by day 10, what a chart! 

That’ paves the way for several days of increasingly autumnal feeling weather with an Arctic source finding a steadily more direct route to the UK and Ireland as the trough grinds east, and nothing upstream with a high over Eastern Canada that looks set to hold anything coming from the west at bay for a good while, helping maintain the cold trough. 
 

Edited October 13, 2021 by Cambrian

[Frosty.]

I’m surprised there’s still no mention of anything cold again in the latest update regarding later next week because there is cold in the GEFS 12z with several members showing arctic incursions bringing wintry showers and frosty nights, some snow around but the pros are obviously not buying it or they think it’s just too fleeting / insignificant to mention?…but the mean does indicate winds swinging into a more northerly direction towards the end of next week with what would be the coldest air of the autumn so far drawn south?…anyway, here’s a small sample, there are too many to post!  

 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 backs up Karl’s point, I think:

But I can’t emphasise enough the need to watch things at this time of year on NH view.  Never mind what is developing in the strat, the trop vortex is not any threat to us for the foreseeable.  Not at all!  

[Mike Poole]

Hey, added to that ^ does anyone really think that the ECM T240 chart for 23 Oct is a ‘usual autumn chart’?

Edited October 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 backs up Karl’s point, I think:

But I can’t emphasise enough the need to watch things at this time of year on NH view.  Never mind what is developing in the strat, the trop vortex is not any threat to us for the foreseeable.  Not at all!  

Well, it’s a near miss on the ECM 12z operational but I’ve seen plenty of charts today that draw much colder air down across Scotland at least?….so it’s something to keep an eye on as we look ahead to next week, lots of chopping and changing to come as the models firm up?!  

[Eagle Eye]

Here's the charts for today at 14:00 from my post a couple days ago on model agreement 

0Z

6Z

Versus the eventual outcome 

My prediction for a slight eastward movement did come true

14 October 

2pm

0Z

6Z

Outcome as of now

Continued south East movement as predictedContinued south East movement as predicted

Model agreement : 78%

Outcome : 68-72%

Further southeast movement 

15 October 

0Z

6Z

Outcome as of now

South East slide as predicted the eventual weakening of it as well. 

Model Agreement : 72%

Outcome : 62-66%

South movement, perhaps the low changing that I predicted was a bit too ahead but it might still happen. 

16 October 

0Z

6Z

Eventual Outcome as of now 

Was a different change compared to what I expected but I did do that compared on the average. 

Updated forecast expects another weakening of this high with further south east movement with some northwards pushing on the Westward side but limited. 

17 October 

0Z

6Z

Eventual Outcome as of now

Weaker southeast movement than I expected but I am still closer compared to the original models. 

Model Agreement : 63%

Outcome : 53-57%

As I update my forecast I shall continue with the idea of a Northwards movement in the Westwards side, South movement towards the Eastwards side. 

18 October 

0Z

6Z

Eventual Outcome as of now

I said that it would be half and half but it was much different. 

Model Agreement : 50%

Outcome : 40-44%

I think it'll still slide south and be a bit closer to what I was expecting. 

1st paragraph on the changes 

My prediction for a slight eastward movement did come true, continued south East movement as predicted. As we continue South East slide as predicted the eventual weakening of it as well. Southwards movement, perhaps the low changing that I predicted was a bit too ahead but it might still happen. Was a different change compared to what I expected but I did do that compared on the average. I said that it would be half and half but it was much different. 

2nd paragraph on the updated predictions 

South movement, perhaps the low changing that I predicted was a bit too ahead but it might still happen, then further ahead updated forecast expects another weakening of this high with further south east movement with some northwards pushing on the Westward side but limited. I think it'll still slide south and be a bit closer to what I was expecting.

Eagle Eye

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, added to that ^ does anyone really think that the ECM T240 chart for 23 Oct is a ‘usual autumn chart’?

What about the actual chart for 20th October last year ?

 

[blizzard81]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

What about the actual chart for 20th October last year ?

 

At first glance looks similar. I'll give you that. One big difference is the big Aleutian low. Present in this years chart. Absent in last year's. 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

At first glance looks similar. I'll give you that. One big difference is the big Aleutian low. Present in this years chart. Absent in last year's. 

Thanks, yes that is one spot the difference!  The other is the low heights over the USA on last years charts, completely absent on this year’s - it is for me about what is upstream!  And my answer is nothing, this year!  

ECM T240 mean shows this clearly:

Edited October 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks, yes that is one spot the difference!  The other is the low heights over the USA on last years charts, completely absent on this year’s - it is for me about what is upstream!  And my answer is nothing, this year!  

Of course we are comparing an 'actual' chart with a predicted chart at day 10 so the usual caveats apply. Always wanted to use that phrase