model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

EX Hurricane SAM influence?

It could well be, DB, though I don't know enough to say . . . but, anywho, it's looking good for the October Fog Index?

    

Don't mention 1978. I did earlier, but I think I got away with it!

[Frosty.]

For sure, the GEFS 12z mean improves significantly from later next week onwards, especially further south..so…the Gfs 12z operational has plenty of support from the ensembles regarding a return to high pressure in the period between early / mid October..at least a north / south split but perhaps even better than that?…which would tie in with the latest met office thoughts?!!.   

Edited September 28, 2021 by jon snow

[Eagle Eye]

Oh how I wish it were winter

 

[Cambrian]

Aah, the 12z operational runs are giving really good cross-model consensus now at 120h for next weekend’s system - in agreement that the low develops to the northwest of Scotland and then swings east across Scotland early Sunday to sit just off Aberdeenshire at noon on Sunday, as it deepens to anything between 955 - high 960’s mb. 

ECM / GFS / ICON / UKMO

   

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by Cambrian

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, well, we’ll take all you have of these!

All goes back to the ex-tropical storm at T144:

Similar to the other models at that point.  

[Methuselah]

All pretty close until around Day 9 -- then who knows? I blame Hurricane Higgins!

    

[Eagle Eye]

ECM going into October just looks to be that the rotating system has returned and back to normal Autumn weather finally.

 

[Frosty.]

For sure, the building blocks for a brighter future are in place by the end of the ECMWF 12z operational! ️  

Edited September 28, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For sure, the building blocks for a brighter future are in place by the end of the ECMWF 12z operational! ️  

Will all depend how the jet stream interacts with ex-Sam. GEM for example is much flatter tonight. Could be more wet and windy stuff, or something nice and settled like ecm.

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

ECM going into October just looks to be that the rotating system has returned and back to normal Autumn weather finally.

 

No I don’t think it looks like normal autumn weather at all.  There is nothing driving the low towards us, it might impinge occasionally, but from here it would largely be settled and warm, with occasional windy southerlies, I would have thought.  

[Eagle Eye]

On 28/09/2021 at 20:34, Mike Poole said:

No I don’t think it looks like normal autumn weather at all.  There is nothing driving the low towards us, it might impinge occasionally, but from here it would largely be settled and warm, with occasional windy southerlies, I would have thought.  

Sorry i'm tired

Best to leave the models to others

Most boring time of the year right now trying to look for something exciting

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry i'm tired

Best to leave the models to others

Most boring time of the year right now trying to look for something exciting

Fair play with that!  I’m not sure there will be much exciting weather during October, actually.  The ex-tropical storms which could provide an interest, have not come our way and have instead boosted a settled high pressure outlook, in my view, anyway.  And then it is the slide into winter, which does look much more interesting.  

Edited September 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Uncertainty]

Here we go lads and lasses, something to talk about! 2 things in fact:

- A rather potent looking secondary low swinging up through the U.K. late Saturday night, I would expect warnings tomorrow for wind. The track, as ever, is hard to pin down

GFS has it running through southern parts and ejecting into the NS through Lincolnshire 

 

The GEM has a much more northerly track, heading N through the Irish Sea 

The ECM is in the middle, taking it through central England and ejecting in NE England.

obviously these tracks will determine the location of the core of the very strong winds,  most likely found south of the centre. Some of the more southerly tracks could keep the core of the strong winds in the channel. The GEM, one of the most Northerly global, projects 95mph gusts NW of Wales 

Definitely a big time watching brief for this system. October has history (or should I say Micheal Fishtory?) with rapidly depending secondary lows … 

One for the short term models over the next few days to pin down.

Secondly, we have the distinct possibility of a more settled spell developing from midweek next week. Triggered in part through gradually rising Angular momentum / movement of the MJO into phase 5

MJO forecast

October Nina phase 5 composite

 

EC 240

GEFS

 

GEPs not keen but the op is.

If this big Scandi dipole were to persist you could start mutterings about a weaker vortex tying in with seasonal strat modelling  but we’ll leave it at interesting things 1 and 2 for the time being

Though somehow this winter I don’t see it being too long till this forum gets very busy indeed! 

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean certainly looks a lot better, as in more settled and warmer by the end of the run, especially across the south!  

 

[Zenarcher]

Hey everyone, here is the most recent average model forecast,

Wednesday will be relatively settled thanks to a ridge of high pressure in West. Sunny spells will spread across much of the country. But, a few scattered showers are possible, most likely in the northwest. On Thursday, a low pressure system will move to the far north west of Scotland, bringing with it more unsettled weather as rain move eastwards across the UK with with high winds seeing widespread gusts of 30 to 45mph. For Friday, the first day of October, remains unsettled, with another band of rain heading south-eastwards over the UK in the morning. Afterwards, a few showers will develop and it will become drier and sunnier.

  

This weekend remains unsettled, with further low pressure moving in off the Atlantic, with more wind and rain to all parts of the UK. Some models are still predicting stormy weather for Saturday late afternoon into Sunday morning, however it's still too early to know the exact details, most models show the low pass over England and Wales and by Sunday afternoon we end up with a deep area of low pressure over Scotland. Whatever the weekend brings, the start of next week on Monday appears to be more settled and drier, with a few showers.

  

Using the ECM model which seems to have some support this evening it's showing plenty of rain on the way between Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am,

  

The ECM goes for gusts around 50 to 65mph across the South and East of England and widespread gusts of 40 to 55mph across Scotland and Northern England.

  

Looking further ahead into next week, between Tuesday to Friday, it appears that the trend of things to possibly settle down is still there, especially for those in the southern regions of the country, while those in the north may stay unsettled. But there's also Hurricane Sam to keep an eye on. The ECM showed it moving into the Atlantic and ending up near Iceland, so it wouldn't really affect the UK's weather, while the GEM control run this afternoon put it to the far west of the UK which would keep things more unsettled. The path of the hurricane is still unclear but we should have a better idea in a few days.

   

Edited September 28, 2021 by Zenarcher

[Polar Maritime]

This morning's GFS for Saturday and NetW-mr..

 

[Frosty.]

Just a quick one, the Gfs 0z operational run isn’t all bad, there is a window of fine and warm weather thanks to high pressure later next week across southern u k with temperatures nudging into the low 20’s c!  

[Frosty.]

It’s fair to say the ECMWF 0z operational is an unsettled and generally cool run with not many redeeming features!  

[Scorcher]

49 minutes ago, jon snow said:

It’s fair to say the ECMWF 0z operational is an unsettled and generally cool run with not many redeeming features!  

A really poor run- offers very little no matter what your preference.

Probably won't produce many cold nights even due to the cloud cover 

I find it amazing that some people in here were wishing for this change- now we have 7 months potentially of cool, unsettled weather ahead of us.

[DogToffee]

18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I find it amazing that some people in here were wishing for this change- now we have 7 months potentially of cool, unsettled weather ahead of us.

Comfy nights of sleep, able to work without choosing between sitting in the dark or frying. Sounds good to me.

[Methuselah]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

A really poor run- offers very little no matter what your preference.

Probably won't produce many cold nights even due to the cloud cover 

I find it amazing that some people in here were wishing for this change- now we have 7 months potentially of cool, unsettled weather ahead of us.

Aye, Scorcher -- 'autumnality' has arrived!

What a mess!    

Edited September 29, 2021 by Ed Stone

[TwisterGirl81]

Do you mean 95 KMH? Not MPH

Edited September 29, 2021 by TwisterGirl81

[Polar Maritime]

GFS 6z take on Saturdays Low track, As always I take more notice of the morning/evening runs..

[Methuselah]

There's quite an intriguing look to the GFS 06Z, I think?

Not only do things look likely to be notably warm by next weekend, that Russian blocking high (should it remain) will essentially negate any chance of any deep, cold arriving from the east until New Year?

It is, of course, possible I'm talking rubbish!

    

Edited September 29, 2021 by Ed Stone
Lost marbles!

[Methuselah]

So what do we think of this -- benign or what? October fog?