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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep that's brought me out of my slumber. 60+mph inland touching 80 across the wash.  Close to storm Doris speeds there. One to watch 

Wake me up when it's cold enough to snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
42 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow where did that storm come from on the gfs at T144 . Gales and extremely wet

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GFS has had heavy rain crossing Southern England, the Channel and Northern France on Sunday 3rd October for several days worth of runs. Seems it's now pushed that further North as a much deeper  LOW.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow where did that storm come from on the gfs at T144 . Gales and extremely wet

DA8491B9-4BC4-43BA-AD8F-8CD5D382082B.png

10CE94C4-C026-40C1-975F-12641884BDB6.png

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I think this looks a clear case of GFS overblowing a low that just happens to end up right over the UK.  I could believe winds this strong if some ex-tropical storm had got wrapped up in it but that doesn’t seem to be the case.  

animtzx9.gif

UKMO and GEM have the system weaker and further north.  Looks more likely to me, but that’s not to downplay the unsettled autumnal weather on offer over the next week.  After that, well there isn’t low after low coming off the Atlantic so I would suggest a more settled week next week once this system clears.  

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

The deepening low arriving over / near our shores by next Sunday has strong cross-model support for being both deep and in our immediate vicinity.

Comparison of 5 models 12z operational runs at 144h.

ECM - off Eastern Scotland <970mb

GEM - Northern Scotland <970mb

GFS - North Wales <960mb

ICON - Southern Irish Sea <970mb

UKMO - Western Scotland <970mb

3A551CB4-8DA2-4680-A7C0-681DFFC01F33.thumb.png.3866debd9e6e28511c932509382a1f31.png 734A6D5A-8A77-49F9-B82E-25BEBC6CAA89.thumb.png.ab8f0e43e33b074d1bc6b651f811c720.png E015E7F3-C53A-4040-A504-A84E5EAA5CC6.thumb.png.22cc18d601427dd8f53230deb079252b.png 1AFC1ED6-F408-4443-B469-CBB215494B58.thumb.png.c1e19baba3f662c83f1a4b8d7e7960dc.png1E3594CD-1609-440C-BD0D-38EF693173B0.thumb.png.e10d4963eff8e95ce6c8eab580df369d.png

 

Huge pinch of salt current “average’ something like Southern Scotland / Northern England, deeper than 970mb.  (There are some recently developed averaging simulations that would probably be a good deal more accurate )

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

All things considered, especially when you look at how unsettled the next week or so is shaping up, the ECMWF 12z operational day 10, at least across the s/se looks pretty decent?!

E972E548-3711-436E-B795-F52777592F04.thumb.png.ce5bdc7b50e4d9d5d32993c1c66c2f99.png40521DAB-85D6-4E54-B3F3-98717C9E106E.thumb.png.d17dfcc46f6a415017943a3a629cbbf6.png97FBCAF5-0364-42EC-A670-73AE1DD25D99.thumb.png.e095d0c00d188a388b1a542c0f7818ae.png 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight’s longer term ECMWF 12z ensemble mean looks better across the south too, at least compared to the mid range! …for sure, there are hints from the models today that early (ish) October could become more settled again, at least across southern u k?..

1435B9D1-2523-4953-962B-A903FE381B5A.thumb.gif.b4d5fa2ce5046677681d78ba25d695a7.gif498B7277-F2FF-4F99-90C5-E37D5C89D72D.thumb.gif.4f7cbd5426cefff396b6c656813bbe6e.gif

 

 

 

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 hours ago, jon snow said:

I agree, the weakening and lowering sun, autumnal decay  etc etc..blah blah,  but 22c that the Gfs 6z operational is showing towards mid October would be really quite something! ☀️ 

Not out of the ordinary though.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

Going by some of these models, autumn has certainly arrived with a vengeance. We could do with blowing some of the cobwebs away. ?️

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 27/09/2021 at 14:43, jon snow said:

I agree, the weakening and lowering sun, autumnal decay  etc etc..blah blah,  but 22c that the Gfs 6z operational is showing towards mid October would be really quite something! ☀️ 

Had 22 degrees from this chart:

archives-2008-10-12-12-0.png

Some other memorable warm sunny October days (the similarity between 2005 and 2006 is notable):

archives-2005-10-15-12-0.png archives-2006-10-14-12-0.png archives-2010-10-8-12-0.png 

archives-2013-10-6-12-0.png archives-2014-10-31-12-0.png archives-2018-10-10-12-0.png

 

Back to here and now. GFS has been a lot less keen on a settled spell than the ECM. Given the current outlook, I think we'd be hard pushed to get a high east of the UK with a warm southeasterly, but perhaps a high moving either over the south or across the country, then pulling a southerly as it moves southeast again ahead of an Atlantic return is more realistic. All FI of course and a lot of water to pass under the bridge (literally) before then. A stormy Sunday looking more and more possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Bit of an eye opening cliff hanger of an ending to the 6weeklies from ECM northerlies for November anyone? I wonder what week 7 would have looked like. Long may that continue im off to the Highlands and exploring much more of Scotland at the end of November/early December. All being well covid restriction wise.

 

In the shorter range this week looks by far the wettest for all areas then its close to average throughout away from NW Scotland etc on 1 or 2 weeks temps average or just above but falling below in the far N Scotland and coasts of Norway by the last week as a potential Arctic flow sets up.

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Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The story of the Gfs 0z operational is a largely unsettled high res and then a largely settled low res with pleasantly warm surface conditions and sunny spells, especially further south. 
C1DA0D08-964B-426E-AE98-C656656AB3B7.thumb.png.7eff25ef20be8363cad1839c9c16211b.png88D6FAF4-6CAA-45BB-A333-08DBB7F15FD1.thumb.png.6095f1b71a71f06f669315194a164c6e.png48D21C7F-9057-48C9-8859-968FFEE493B1.thumb.png.dd0ae9428a9bbf4274a5b4c176d2985f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to today's GFS 00Z, we could be in for a very warm middle of October? Winter? Who knows? But bear in mind the excess warmth still in evidence down to our south?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

In particular -- will it interfere (via leakage into Scandinavia) with any early NE'erlies like it did last winter?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.0593f72564a12a54d86b27157f1933f0.png

A quite stormy and wet period of weather for the next 7-10 days. Western hills taking the brunt of the rainfall as usual in this kind of set up.

By day 10 though there are signs of a change on the horizon. High pressure could start to build with low pressure heading back up towards Iceland:

image.thumb.png.c5ad59697aaae4c54a17094728d9af24.pngimage.thumb.png.2eac3a79f219e34c71b1a4823ff57ea0.png


This is actually all hinging on what becomes of major hurricane Sam.

image.thumb.png.3c917e1ef5b07c9178a122ed9c25f208.pngimage.thumb.png.cd883f0486c24320757e3769da22afe9.png

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ECM and GFS track it straight up towards Iceland, which helps to build a ridge ahead and settle things down in the UK. Could yet another ex-hurricane result in something more settled and warmer in the UK?

Ensembles look a lot better with the mean back above 1020mb in around 9 days time:

image.thumb.png.f8183552eb62811575a701f888367d86.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.fe8e0d7e0fdf827ee25329d4392cefcf.pngimage.thumb.png.880f2a482edb524a648fabf7181cfe51.png

6z continues the buckled jet and amplification, putting us back on the warmer side by the end of next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Interesting differences between the last three runs of the GFS op as it struggles to handle the development of the low pressure at the southern end of the trough at around T+132h,  next Sunday at noon.

The 18z (like the 12z yesterday) was blowing it up, with a stronger jet coming out of Greenland and intensification of the jet over Biscay with a sharp bend over the UK giving a <960mb low coming into the southwest. 

D9F94D41-AB1C-40DC-BB85-DAED919CCFC0.thumb.png.710f5ece11ce3bd7b6767d728d69592f.png 0C10E090-4948-463F-AED6-8687D2675B83.thumb.png.6891216ac422b545c7d01aeecaa10805.png


On the 0z run, weaker jet coming out of Greenland, some confluence with that wrapping around the bottom of the low over eastern Canada, which has deepened a bit more, stronger over the mid-Atlantic but the main thrust then heading down more into Spain. This gives a 980mb low just skirting Kent by the same time.

2F9E361F-818C-4FB0-A122-29E65DD00189.thumb.png.aef5945987493cc4a96a9eb0f21c2bd6.png 984ACAA7-BC8C-4C56-A261-CE3B8F7FDD41.thumb.png.3a76903518391eee70778e53fe66c1e4.png


On the 6z run, a very weak stuttering jet from Greenland and a weaker northern edge to the stream as it buckles south of Iceland so a lot less energy for cyclogenesis, giving a flabbier low, central pressure 984mb, lying over much of the UK and Ireland a bit earlier in the day, here at 120h for 6am on Sunday morning. 

97F7D0FB-A541-494A-910E-F4C945A4E7C7.thumb.png.27401bfe913d6e8a255df5469b6b966c.png 79CC70F5-5124-4585-B21E-9E6C30334779.thumb.png.9a3e11c04925693cf7ecb35c2150b2d8.png

So on the basis of the more recent runs a trend towards something still wet and a little bit windy for many for a while on Sunday but not near as scary looking as it was yesterday. A pragmatic take would lean towards something in between the 0z and 6z runs being more like it, as a lot of things have to come together with the jetstream over the western Atlantic for a development like we were seeing on yesterday’s runs to happen come Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

According to today's GFS 00Z, we could be in for a very warm middle of October? Winter? Who knows? But bear in mind the excess warmth still in evidence down to our south?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

In particular -- will it interfere (via leakage into Scandinavia) with any early NE'erlies like it did last winter?

La Nina imprint wouldn't suggest anything long lived southerly sourced.. more likely mid Atlantic heights and greater potential for something more northerly sourced.. dare I say arctic as October wears on.. northerlies quite possible. Just my feeling on things.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

La Nina imprint wouldn't suggest anything long lived southerly sourced.. more likely mid Atlantic heights and greater potential for something more northerly sourced.. dare I say arctic as October wears on.. northerlies quite possible. Just my feeling on things.. 

I'm nae really much of an 'imprint' (or a 'footprint') man, to be honest, Damian, but next weekend could be a tad 'disturbed?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS and UKMO consistent at T144 for the ex-tropical storm to push up pressure ahead of it for the UK, leading to a much more settled week next week:

FA91C89D-AE53-4D2F-AF5F-52A216C97244.thumb.png.74fdd38f923658b00075130ef94d92a6.pngA786AF07-5AE1-4029-B84A-05BBB5C332A6.thumb.gif.47d3c89c498f4a7de62a9e1c0a4069c1.gif

Just taking a look at the MO Contingency Planners forecast for September.  Looks like really high confidence of a settled and warm October, signal for high in the Atlantic and possible northerlies in the later part of the forecast.  Overall, mild, but reading between the lines, could be a 3 month period of two halves as we transition to winter under a regime with little Atlantic domination.  I think some on here, including me, see it in a very similar way at the moment.  

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS 18z certainly showing some wild weather for the South over the weekend, NetW-mr not making much of it atm, On we watch...

1988105107_viewimage(17).thumb.png.5523a2e8ec9e2148b9e6ecec44250a94.png1356193348_viewimage(18).thumb.png.6522c8d105d769ec23ba876c1bdf6f8b.png1133088407_viewimage(19).thumb.png.77dd73d3379f95fa33e135890d1d2045.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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