model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[sheikhy]

Just now, jon snow said:

Hardly hot!..warm though, 22c? ..probably an outlier! 

Yeh very warm at the very least with 850s of 10 and 12!!yeh i say outlier right now but thats 2 runs in a row now!!if ecm even shifts slightly towards it then it could be a game changer this evening!!!

[sheikhy]

Gfs mean goes with the op up to 96 hours so far!!!!!this COULD be a huge triumph if it ends up correct!still not convinced though!!we await the ecm....

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh very warm at the very least with 850s of 10 and 12!!yeh i say outlier right now but thats 2 runs in a row now!!if ecm even shifts slightly towards it then it could be a game changer this evening!!!

Getting to the time of year now where 850s alone won’t give hot weather as the sun loses power. You need a southerly flow to assist really. That sort of high would give upper twenties in July easily.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Getting to the time of year now where 850s alone won’t give hot weather as the sun loses power. You need a southerly flow to assist really. That sort of high would give upper twenties in July easily.

Yes and looks a very clear high as well so plenty of sun!!!whatever it is i will take what its showing as by the end of september the weather should be complettely the opposite to what the 12z gfs is showing for next week lol!!

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yes and looks a very clear high as well so plenty of sun!!!whatever it is i will take what its showing as by the end of september the weather should be complettely the opposite to what the 12z gfs is showing for next week lol!!

Be funny when we see the pressure ensemble a bit later and the op run is 3 miles above anything else!

[sheikhy]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Be funny when we see the pressure ensemble a bit later and the op run is 3 miles above anything else!

Was the 3 miles above the rest of them on the 06z as well!!wont surprise me at all if its an outlier!!looks to good to be true for the time of year!!especially if its sun and warmth your after!!i could do with some cold frosty morning though

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yes and looks a very clear high as well so plenty of sun!!!whatever it is i will take what its showing as by the end of september the weather should be complettely the opposite to what the 12z gfs is showing for next week lol!!

My guess is GFS 12Z is for the bin! EC probably has this one, as unsettled is more common than settled

[mb018538]

GEM doesn’t want to know unsurprisingly. GFS had too much loopy juice I reckon.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean @ day 6 (T+144 hours) is certainly not trending unsettled like previous runs?…to be honest though, I’m pished off with looking at benign charts now and hope for some unsettled cold wet and windy weather during the second half of next week onwards..will I get my wish?!

 

[Methuselah]

That's fine by me, Karl!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, perhaps the unsettled weather later next week will be more of a glancing blow?..still waiting for autumn  to find its mojo!

 

 

Edited September 17, 2021 by jon snow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

After a very mediocre summer, I’m already starting to look towards winter now for some fun and games. 

Going by the latest GFS, a flat high is often a precursor for some impressive retrogression, especially if it’s orientated just to our Northwest. An early Northerly blast would be interesting! We haven’t had a proper one for quite some time. 

[Cambrian]

12z UKMO, like the 0z ECM, intent on the northerly for next Thursday (144h)

 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Cambrian

[sheikhy]

Gona call this now!!gfs is the outlier!!!there is surely not a chance in hell ecm and ukmo are wrong at just 96 hours with that low in the atlantic!!

[Seasonal Trim]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gona call this now!!gfs is the outlier!!!there is surely not a chance in hell ecm and ukmo are wrong at just 96 hours with that low in the atlantic!!

Now if the ecm and ukmo were showing a raging Easterly in the depths of Winter at 96hrs and the gfs was showing a south westerly, which one would you have you're money on? 

[mb018538]

No sign of anything like high pressure on the ecm either. Unsettled it is then!

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gona call this now!!gfs is the outlier!!!there is surely not a chance in hell ecm and ukmo are wrong at just 96 hours with that low in the atlantic!!

I think the issue in question is not the low in the Atlantic, but the behaviour of this low (ex-tropical storm) (highlighted):  T120, GFS wraps this up in the stuff that affects us, and pushes high pressure over us,  ECM keeps it alone, adrift:

Edited September 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Now if the ecm and ukmo were showing a raging Easterly in the depths of Winter at 96hrs and the gfs was showing a south westerly, which one would you have you're money on? 

GFS, I would anyway

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the issue in question is not the low in the Atlantic, but the behaviour of this low (ex-tropical storm) (highlighted):  T120, GFS wraps this up in the stuff that affects us, and pushes high pressure over us,  ECM keeps it alone, adrift:

Yup thats the same low im eluding to mate!!!the gfs seenm to join that low with the bunch of lows across greenland and ridges a lovely warm high across us!!ecm keeps it off the eastern states!!gota go with ukmo and ecm!!hope they are wrong but highly unlikely!!

[sheikhy]

19 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Now if the ecm and ukmo were showing a raging Easterly in the depths of Winter at 96hrs and the gfs was showing a south westerly, which one would you have you're money on? 

Would still go ecm and ukmo BUT gfs would probably be right in the end cos its just our damn luck pretty much every winter!!

[northwestsnow]

Looks chilly by the end of the run on EC.

Are those uppers cold enough on the Scottish  mountains for the s word?

Edited September 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

Hello all!

There’s been talk of the Atlantic returning after months of absence.  I don’t see it.  I just can’t see a zonal attack on the UK that is any way prolonged.  

It is a mystery as to why zonal fayre has disappeared, last winter’s SSW might well have had something to do with it.  It didn’t deliver quite the patterns that most coldies wanted, but it did something, the question is what? 

Going into this winter, the QBO is easterly (that doesn’t happen as often as it used to), we are coming out of a solar minimum.  So what can go wrong this year?  Indian Ocean dipole.  No.  ENSO, not sure, but probably not.  SSTs maybe:

The hot seas in the eastern pacific (highlighted) may be bad news, but in the Atlantic we would expect to see a re-emergence of the tripole from summer, so I’m giving this a tick!!

Finally a look upwards:

Not much to talk about on today’s plot, but in a couple of week’s time the vortex looks like setting up shop - in a good place - for now.

I’m sure there will be much more to talk about as the cold season comes closer.

All the best, 

Mike

Edited September 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Cambrian]

The far reaches of the 12z ECM op shows a potentially long-lived northerly. The propensity for a little bit of zonal flow to so quickly go meridional chimes well with Mike’s comments.

 

NH view at 192h and 240h with the UK and Ireland still under the influence of the low pressure over the Norwegian Sea as the mass smurf gathering at the North Pole slowly disperses. Have a great evening. 

 

[Man With Beard]

Quite a common theme on the ECM, this deep low to the NW? May well knock temperatures down to the low-mid teens by the end of the month. Will feel a bit chilly at night!

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240.  Just look at it.  Could you be looking at a better pattern for a front loaded winter? 

Early days, baby steps, of course…