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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Stunning day 10 ECM 0z operational, certain to warm the cockles of any coldies heart?!…it’s one of those situations when day 11 is desired as that low tracks further east and opens the floodgates to a potent arctic blast (for the time of year)! ❄️ 

4C4BAC8B-025E-4B98-9E41-64FF67699986.thumb.png.2f464d0717c27a46858a6bb49b293559.png451546CE-D475-4E5E-AAC5-F4611AD67DBA.thumb.png.8893521145eb7e85f73e9ce0a1ba9c56.png66FAB7EC-1037-4A2C-8C2E-948C6527B35B.thumb.png.480bf446cbae4f8fbe2929bd417f0586.png


 

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
29 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

Yep, just means we get maxes of 12-16c. Pointless looking for a northerly or anything of the sort in late September. SSTs are at their highest, the land is still warm from the summer season, and it's just nuisance cold more than anything. I always feel like as we get towards bonfire night you can definitely get something with a bit more oomph.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
48 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

Agreed to an extent..

Although a cooler North westerly won't harm Sea surface temps especially around the Irish sea.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Just to show how much the forecast and models have changed in the last 4 days and why September can be an absolute pain to forecast...

Monday's update had a ridge over the UK for the end of September and into October

image.thumb.png.8c9e714f6bf12579d0e2235f64414111.pngimage.thumb.png.528f930fbc2f4f294681d309a48e247e.png

Last night's update for the same period? Troughing over the UK for the next 2 weeks

image.thumb.png.b12e31039a8464a95f1a4de75e27ec71.pngimage.thumb.png.d3c2299ee9898b68385c8325cabdee8a.png


Output this morning very much along those lines too. Very unsettled by the end of next week:

image.thumb.png.45e17f8918e56ea71a5850b7b715c90c.pngimage.thumb.png.10f8f4b08c2ec680af436c817a48dcd3.pngimage.thumb.png.6e3c1633af5a2f4bcb7fde0620c506f3.png

More importantly though look at all that high latitude blocking!!dont think thats normal heading into october!!normally we see a raging vortex by then!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
On 17/09/2021 at 09:52, Scorcher said:

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

I think it’s more the fact that it’s something different as we’ve had relatively benign weather for what seems like weeks now. We’ve had a lot of ‘nothingness’ such as endless cloudy skies. 
 

I think from a weather enthusiasts’ perspective, it’s more about what the weather will deliver as opposed to weather it’ll be pleasant or not. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Just to show how much the forecast and models have changed in the last 4 days and why September can be an absolute pain to forecast...

Monday's update had a ridge over the UK for the end of September and into October

image.thumb.png.8c9e714f6bf12579d0e2235f64414111.pngimage.thumb.png.528f930fbc2f4f294681d309a48e247e.png

Last night's update for the same period? Troughing over the UK for the next 2 weeks

image.thumb.png.b12e31039a8464a95f1a4de75e27ec71.pngimage.thumb.png.d3c2299ee9898b68385c8325cabdee8a.png


Output this morning very much along those lines too. Very unsettled by the end of next week:

image.thumb.png.45e17f8918e56ea71a5850b7b715c90c.pngimage.thumb.png.10f8f4b08c2ec680af436c817a48dcd3.pngimage.thumb.png.6e3c1633af5a2f4bcb7fde0620c506f3.png

There are signs now the pattern wants to go into a trough dominated one. We have a warm front moving across the UK next 48 hrs that turns in on itself due to forcing from both west and east. Quite unusual and an indication a pattern change is afoot with heights coming unstuck and the UK becoming a trough magnet. Its been the theme of 2021 anticyclonic followed by trough/cyclonic.. zonal flow has been absent..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Last nights 46 was for sure becoming more unsettled towards the end of next week...But we see a fair amount of Blocking towards the NW at times.

Perhaps conditions becoming more settled as we move into October also.

These are the anomalies for quite a time period,so expect minor details to change on various days! 

Have a great weekend  

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_192_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_276_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_366_1431_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_396_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_474_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_522_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_612_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_684_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_738_1642_525.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2021091600_804_1642_525.png

Whilst available to view..  these charts should come with major prone to error disclaimer.. 10th October is some 24 days away!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

By late October a northerly can pack a wintry punch..  2008 evidence. Indeed by early October a bit of wintriness on high ground can easily occur, but agree late September away from very highest ground does not normally bring a wintry feel. The arctic undergoes rapid cooling now regardless if SSTs.. and a deep seated northerly in October will always feel cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst available to view..  these charts should come with major prone to error disclaimer.. 10th October is some 24 days away!

Most definitely,it's just another tool to see where we could be heading further along the line...but yeh anything beyond 10 days is fraught with error. They do kind of back up what Exeter are currently hinting at though....more settled towards the S/SE...im still not convinced of the Atlantic onslaught though...perhaps in the short term! But not sustained...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

 

The day after (ECM 0z day 11…if there was one)..we would probably be an arctic northerly, there’s 522 dam across Iceland in that range, just need that low to track further east although it’s coming up against the block further east…and of course it’s all hypothetical at this range and the next run will be different..but at least it adds some spice and thankfully we are not going to endure a painfully boring benign outlook like the models were threatening us with a few days ago…phew.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

GFS op at 6z not so keen as the 0z on a northerly for us to end next week - steers all the action with the low more to the north and east and builds high pressure into the southwest

6z 162h / 0z 168h

DB304B0F-D983-4906-A033-C3DCBC72FF4A.thumb.png.b60d23c47f9c025ca7390e644f33c82a.png 156D3F63-9BE5-4CD3-8E80-D2B55817822B.thumb.png.86eab86104332c9e9acea48f68eb2bcf.png

 

Indeed it’s all getting shunted further north as early as Tuesday / Wednesday with a rather pleasant looking high pressure over most of the UK and Ireland, piled up by that ex-tropical storm maintaining its intensity for a while longer 

6z 114h / 0z 120h

FBF218E7-40C9-4A74-9622-E8EE423A3AEA.thumb.png.aac14ca2426fb73723164a6e2dc0ced2.png 7E356E7F-75DA-462B-8473-828B3BBEA67F.thumb.png.cfdac046cdc28c333f287bcb44f69043.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ok..I’ve seen enough already!..winter is coming..come on coldies, where are you?..let’s be having you!!    

83635A49-55BE-4595-B25B-3C6784C73270.thumb.png.006a9eca5574ee759db3ccbaaf1c3a3b.png56FA7AD3-DED9-46B6-AF0E-D0D9AFB59A34.thumb.png.b79b7017335b8664194328b6059f3cb3.pngA400EDBD-EEBB-4D79-9477-B74CA9913A71.thumb.png.8959eb1cc7f18d109e6bfb52dc485aa0.pngA54D30B5-2EBE-42D1-A958-D56DF3E4A88F.thumb.gif.f6e0b64f46766da1102791bbdb5865c0.gif18BE65B0-7424-4AFB-BFA1-2C367BF272A9.png.4d3fd4c3f987be7233d03fe4b76db1f9.png200FA557-1C45-48FC-879C-71557E1F4191.thumb.png.ee5b24a3f679b57bc44648d835f26abb.png

 

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

More importantly though look at all that high latitude blocking!!dont think thats normal heading into october!!normally we see a raging vortex by then!!!

*Whispers* What does that mean?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
6 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Ok..I’ve seen enough already!..winter is coming..come on coldies, where are you?..let’s be having you!!    

83635A49-55BE-4595-B25B-3C6784C73270.thumb.png.006a9eca5574ee759db3ccbaaf1c3a3b.png56FA7AD3-DED9-46B6-AF0E-D0D9AFB59A34.thumb.png.b79b7017335b8664194328b6059f3cb3.pngA400EDBD-EEBB-4D79-9477-B74CA9913A71.thumb.png.8959eb1cc7f18d109e6bfb52dc485aa0.pngA54D30B5-2EBE-42D1-A958-D56DF3E4A88F.thumb.gif.f6e0b64f46766da1102791bbdb5865c0.gif18BE65B0-7424-4AFB-BFA1-2C367BF272A9.png.4d3fd4c3f987be7233d03fe4b76db1f9.png

 

If only.....

Goes back into my real dream...

Shhhhh

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually it isn’t that simple!  I think if we get standard autumn fayre from now on in, there isn’t a cat in hells chance we will get winter in December.  Which is why I’m holding out for the blocks that have been there since last December….

I understand what you’re saying Mike, fair play to you!  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ok, I may be no expert, indeed I know I’m no expert (what is an expert?)…does a so called weather expert know everything there is to know about everything?… I think not!…pffft!!..anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z mean, for sure, the mid / longer term outlook is pretty unsettled?  

1DFFD24B-E431-4201-A481-7AF35A524119.thumb.png.2fa87c8de79b856b9fa1d69bfa77c3a9.png3D458603-C1BD-4141-BD63-382CFCBD97F2.thumb.png.c388ba71335a7302105da2053b59a839.png74165E0E-582D-4620-9C06-6DCDA936E1D9.thumb.png.936c1aa4f5edcb72c6f13fad66802dde.pngF03732F1-0E9B-4415-874C-E6F682B58C5C.thumb.png.e4ec996469a3ede52cf7f554b83b728f.pngF891A513-C75E-4652-97E5-C893A0C1AF77.thumb.png.e52774b0fb241ebcd0ee22eeaed41a2e.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Indeed Jon Snow, a weather expert should expert the unexperted   It's all chaos aloft anyway

Mondays ECM 46 day weather regime (which in fairness was not in line with previous runs, was a lot more blocky than previous outputs)

image.thumb.png.3ac4a29e0f8639642d79fb76c8ad480c.png

To this from yesterday

image.thumb.png.1d2f4564d437b56a06fd0eb6a8e2e9d1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Downburst said:

a weather expert should expert the unexperted   

Good one!..you deserve a badge for that…good luck with that  

Anyhoo, yes, the Ukmo 12h gradually becomes..unsettled!  

2719D237-4836-4E42-ABE7-131694D451E7.thumb.gif.b1fedbd924585a39cc30909d08a6c352.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Wow the differences as early as 72 hours on ukmo and gfs in regards to that low in the atlantic!!gfs sends a lovely massive high over the uk at 102 hours!ukmo continues from the 00z and send a cold northwesterly from next week!!the gfs continues on from its 06z run!!!has the gfs picked up a new signal with that low on the atlantic?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.438b022079f61201fd732dd0996eb465.png

I had to check this wasn’t cached or something. Ridiculous 120 chart from gfs tonight.

UKMO below much more likely.

image.thumb.png.3da233edbbc4106010e7dd73d83bc8c9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well, a conundrum on our hands with the 12z runs, here GFS and UKMO T144:

769ED37E-1D28-4B04-BCDA-2C25CA33248B.thumb.png.f01711062a31f11fb151c00ebff58ddd.png5020DFF7-B4D8-4F1E-9CF0-304759B3733F.thumb.png.05b706a8735cde2de0b187b0d064d76b.png

It is all about the low that either encroaches or gives us the wide berth.  People shouldn’t be surprised by the GFS run, it has been on the ensembles/clusters for a while.  It is important for now, but also important for signals into winter, more to say on that later.  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs at 144 hours hot and sunny back to summer!!ukmo at 144 hours cold and showery!!!

Hardly hot!..warm though, 22c? ..probably an outlier! 

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