model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Memory fading.. thanks for info. Trying to think of comparable Septembers.. 2016 possibly? We've had many very warm Septembers 8n recent years, rapidly becoming an extension of summer and often warmer than June..sometimes much more so. Gives credence to the notion autumn doesn't start until the equinox. 

2016 was another warm but unsettled one. I'd say perhaps 2005 is a better match. That month collapsed in installments with a few earlier wobbles, build-backs of high pressure, then an Atlantic onslaught from the equinox onwards. We've managed to evade any early chilly northerlies so far though, but perhaps one will come along later in the month like last year, if we get a low past the UK.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

2016 was another warm but unsettled one. I'd say perhaps 2005 is a better match. That month collapsed in installments with a few earlier wobbles, build-backs of high pressure, then an Atlantic onslaught from the equinox onwards. We've managed to evade any early chilly northerlies so far though, but perhaps one will come along later in the month like last year, if we get a low past the UK.

Thanks. Oh yes remember 2005 being very dry and often settled and warm. October 2005 was also very mild and dry.. the theme continued until early Nov, followed by much colder weather. 

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Aye Ed, then the wheels come flying off, Och well, I’ve seen worse at ma hoose! 

Indeed, Karl, as Rumpole of The Bailey might've said: The pear has landed!

[Frosty.]

This from the Gfs 6z operational  is a preety potent northerly for the time of year Tha’ knows!…I spotted some snaw…just don’t tell mair snaw aboot it! ..even some frost!…yay..  ?  

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The only disappointment for me about the 6z is seeing the return of boring benign high pressure again later..still, can’t have everything can we!  

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The only disappointment for me about the 6z is seeing the return of boring benign high pressure again later..still, can’t have everything can we!  

Ah but the wheel has been unlocked by then and the main forcing is the developing PV to the NW.. that ridge will be forced west, all eyes to the NW..see the dig in the jet.. a more zonal pattern.

[Frosty.]

Spoke too soon!…the perils of commenting before a run has finished..anyway, 2nd Northerly..perhaps even more potent than the first!!..meridional… ...a  very happy ending.. ..yay!!

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

I'll nae welcome this:      

Not only is inclement weather useless regarding the autumnal outdoor work/tidy-up, what's the point of tapping into 'cold' air before it's had time to ripen, so to speak?

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll nae welcome this:      

Not only is inclement weather useless regarding the autumnal outdoor work/tidy-up, what's the point of tapping into 'cold' air before it's had time to ripen, so to speak?

Don’t worry Ed, it will be gone by the next run..like most cold FI charts!  

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Spoke too soon!…the perils of commenting before a run has finished..anyway, 2nd Northerly..perhaps even more potent than the first!!..meridional… ...a  very happy ending.. ..yay!!

Backs up my post above.. look to the NW.. should have said meridional rather than zonal..

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Backs up my post above.. look to the NW.. should have said meridional rather than zonal..

Indeed, you made a very good point in the post you mentioned regarding the developing Polar Vortex and the ridge being forced west!  

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[Cambrian]

Heehee, uncanny, fair play @damianslaw - the flip looking to happen bang on the equinox again this year. 
Jetstream 6z GFS 162h (end of 22nd itself), first appearance of >200mph winds above Greenland.

 

Driving some proper cyclogenesis northeast of Iceland, 968mb.

Same general idea supported by the 0z ECM, though low not as deep and centred further south, based on modelling of a slightly weaker jetstream I would imagine. 

I

 

Reasonable agreement even through to day 8/9 to bring us all eventually into a long-fetch northerly for at least a couple of days moving into the following weekend.

6z GFS 210h / 0z ECM 216h

 

I reckon I’ll stay in my shorts but a good jumper definitely at the ready!

 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! The grot spell has some ensemble support.

    

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! The grot spell has some ensemble support.

    

For sure Ed, there’s some grot..actually I like grot.. ..but only if it’s to do with Reggie Perrins Grot shop! …just looked at the extended GEFS 6z mean and for sure, the grot ebbs and flows?..but it’s still better than an interminable benign bore fest!  

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[minus10]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll nae welcome this:      

Not only is inclement weather useless regarding the autumnal outdoor work/tidy-up, what's the point of tapping into 'cold' air before it's had time to ripen, so to speak?

Talking of ripening cold air my tomatoes have just started to ripen....if this happens they wont get much further...

(Btw like the analogy Ed)..

 

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For sure Ed, there’s some grot..actually I like grot.. ..but only if it’s to do with Reggie Perrins Grot shop! …just looked at the extended GEFS 6z mean and for sure, the grot ebbs and flows?..but it’s still better than an interminable benign bore fest!  

 

Ah, yes; an outlook that's about as much use as non-stick glue!

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah, yes; an outlook that's about as much use as non-stick glue!

Aye, I’m just happy the mods…I mean the models (Gfs 0z / 6z / ECM 0z etc..etc.. ) look much much more interesting than that vile interminable blocked benign yuk / bore fest they were generally showing yesterday and previous days!!..I can’t stand boring output that goes on..and on..and on.. and on..  

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[bluearmy]

IGNORE THIS - ITS CLAPTRAP. 
 

Looks like a stand off between eps and eps para at day 10 in the e Atlantic 

 

 

and gefs just for good measure 

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like a stand off between eps and eps para at day 10 in the e Atlantic 

 

 

and gefs just for good measure 

 

// ensemble run 6 days old - out of date.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

// ensemble run 6 days old - out of date.

That explains a lot Mike!  Bloody Sylvain! 

[mb018538]

UKMO and GFS continuing to slide towards something more unsettled this evening. Midweek onwards.

[Frosty.]

Early signs from some of the 12z output so far (Ukmo / ICON)….yes, the unsettled trend mid / longer term shown on the 0z / 6z perhaps wasn’t a dream after all?!  

 

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

UKMO and GFS at T144:

Looks like some uncertainty with that low NW, increasingly models have it nosing in on UK, GFS looks more of a glancing blow, so we might see pressure rise on this model soon, with the entry stage left of what looks like an ex-tropical storm. 

[Frosty.]

I spotted some snaw on the Gfs 12z operational!..do I win a prize?    

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I spotted some snaw on the Gfs 12z operational!..do I win a prize?    

Maybe there’s a badge for that, Karl?