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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

2021 the year of the cut off low.. lost track how many we've seen since January.

 Won't go off topic but surely France/Spain must have had an exceptionally wet year...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM and // at T168:

259FA797-5B05-4369-879F-033B9F169694.thumb.gif.7093be5e1dd000ba889e541e87096567.gif23EE1892-2448-4606-8DA0-A6457C6DED00.thumb.gif.c3e7d89e52e871e95d44721c29143c6a.gif

If you’ve been following things, both are plausible, and something like this now probable to stop the Atlantic yet again.  Next week looks very nice.  I prefer the //, but then I’m all for the newbie model!!

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
41 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

 Won't go off topic but surely France/Spain must have had an exceptionally wet year...

You'd be correct on that!

spacer.png

 Source: 

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

From yesterday’s fax, but similar for several days now, the front featuring in the inter-model jetstream dilemma for the weekend extends north to south over 40 degrees of latitude from one end, east of the coast of northern Greenland, to the other, west of the coast of Morocco, almost the whole height of the chart, but despite this, there is less than 30mb pressure difference from the centre of the low to the tail.

829C6D3D-F821-4825-A9CF-1BBB89FB255A.thumb.gif.f342f0943b8f9fd843816f394e083f0e.gif

It’s proving tricky for the models to gain consensus at even this short range, with such a weak, fragmented jetstream running alongside the front (as shown here in the 12z GFS op for the same time) rather than driving it. Indeed, the shape of the front is very strikingly moulded around the edge of the jetstream including the kink over France and Iberia.

3E57DA4A-80EE-4C49-ACB9-2F0202AECFD8.thumb.png.a93d10e585445e4329ddf0272a39e322.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
25 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

You'd be correct on that!

spacer.png

 Source: 

If I read that correctly then they’ve had anywhere from 25 to 75% of average, so not exceptional wet at all?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Ok, the absolute Full Monty from me tonight on the 12z ECM clusters, here’s the T72-T96:

FAE39601-6E35-41D5-B7E3-B137A6501B8F.thumb.png.6cec15be08fa0bc74e302f14adc56d06.png

Pretty much on the Scandi high, blocking, developing I would say, so to T120-T168:

AA0C60BC-5C60-422C-A55D-9DF6F645EB01.thumb.png.8c95509e905302edfac5f749ca6f0937.png

There might be 6 clusters but I’m seeing Uk high on most of them!

T192-T240:

13912D3E-8DE5-408B-89BC-FB9EFC4FF2CF.thumb.png.c9f570f70558286db555241edecac30f.png

Just 5 clusters this time, but can you see one with anything unsettled for the UK because I can’t.  Just for fun the T264+ set:

13912D3E-8DE5-408B-89BC-FB9EFC4FF2CF.thumb.png.c9f570f70558286db555241edecac30f.png

Pick the bones out of that!

Next week looks to be one of those weather crossover times  - the last time you really feel the sun  on your face, so enjoy!

 

A4DE00C5-C1F9-4C37-B2C6-7E896CC02B95.png

OK 5 tries to get this post sorted, and in the right thread, I just don’t care any more, yes the charts aren’t in the right order, you get the picture, hopefully…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro by day 10 much more settled than the GFS/GEM less settled.

image.thumb.png.e8c3074f5607e22fa67be6066970b8e0.png

image.thumb.png.41ab1dba27c672d6c037781150f9bfa5.png

image.thumb.png.d7538e333d93af7111806d67a2398a38.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, Cambrian said:

From yesterday’s fax, but similar for several days now, the front featuring in the inter-model jetstream dilemma for the weekend extends north to south over 40 degrees of latitude from one end, east of the coast of northern Greenland, to the other, west of the coast of Morocco, almost the whole height of the chart, but despite this, there is less than 30mb pressure difference from the centre of the low to the tail.

829C6D3D-F821-4825-A9CF-1BBB89FB255A.thumb.gif.f342f0943b8f9fd843816f394e083f0e.gif

It’s proving tricky for the models to gain consensus at even this short range, with such a weak, fragmented jetstream running alongside the front (as shown here in the 12z GFS op for the same time) rather than driving it. Indeed, the shape of the front is very strikingly moulded around the edge of the jetstream including the kink over France and Iberia.

3E57DA4A-80EE-4C49-ACB9-2F0202AECFD8.thumb.png.a93d10e585445e4329ddf0272a39e322.png

 

With a front moving across the UK, why are the forecasts saying dry outlook, some are, some are not.. mmm might they backtrack for the coming weekend, could be wet in places.. I'm struggling to find much to comment on about the weather at the moment, as always the case at this time of year it seems, year in year out.. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 0z operational decides to turn generally unsettled and much cooler during the second half of next week and then unsettled (cyclonic) at times thereafter..and I thought to myself, must be a glitch?…it’s supposed to become blocked and settled forever isn’t it?.. …but NO…the GEFS 0z mean kind of agrees, although it’s still rolling out on meteociel, it certainly indicates a northwest / southeast split gradually developing next week and perhaps more widely unsettled?…something must have ruffled its feathers because yesterday it was indicating a largely benign outlook lasting much longer?  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think it’s fair to say the ECM 0z operational concurs with the Gfs this morning about an unsettled and cooler mid / longer term outlook? ?  …doesn’t necessarily mean either are right of course!!!!! 

F01AB4A6-85E0-42A2-8863-D00786D402E6.thumb.png.5b4734ca1bd5f177118caaf7453250ba.png981B3CD0-A8D4-46E3-B357-620A27CF1AF2.thumb.png.9bc1e8b448c576d9036d4f169603d397.pngD4ABC5CF-236E-4E42-A924-EBF72BF058B3.thumb.png.cb9b001e46c2c788a5dbd38e3c12d892.pngFA0D2F08-873C-403F-8D3D-F0BF9940486B.thumb.jpeg.cd42bc47575f1ed4c65981a7113397b5.jpeg

 

Edited by jon snow
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells 140m asl
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells 140m asl
1 hour ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 0z operational decides to turn generally unsettled and much cooler during the second half of next week and then unsettled (cyclonic) at times thereafter..and I thought to myself, must be a glitch?…it’s supposed to become blocked and settled forever isn’t it?.. …but NO…the GEFS 0z mean kind of agrees, although it’s still rolling out on meteociel, it certainly indicates a northwest / southeast split gradually developing next week and perhaps more widely unsettled?…something must have ruffled its feathers because yesterday it was indicating a largely benign outlook lasting much longer?  

Oh thank god!! Maybe there's hope after all

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well - the ECM is the most cyclonic run we've seen for quite a while:

image.thumb.png.3f252528dfc19fe922255bdd760b9517.pngimage.thumb.png.5728fcff4b92ea45f36057b01aec45d3.pngimage.thumb.png.8afdeaed99b6c1dd2f92257bdf4d8729.png

An outlier....or are we finally going to see our first more widespread unsettled spell of autumn 2021 towards the middle/end of next week?

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

3 cms, I have gone entire winters without seeing that much snow.

Nice to see a cold related record for a change all this GW doom mongering has  even getting on my nerves 

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well - the ECM is the most cyclonic run we've seen for quite a while:

image.thumb.png.3f252528dfc19fe922255bdd760b9517.pngimage.thumb.png.5728fcff4b92ea45f36057b01aec45d3.pngimage.thumb.png.8afdeaed99b6c1dd2f92257bdf4d8729.png

An outlier....or are we finally going to see our first more widespread unsettled spell of autumn 2021 towards the middle/end of next week?

I must admit i was pretty shocked to see this turnabout this morning  from the blocked outlook that has been the theme for some time. It will certainly be autumnal if this verifies...

image.thumb.png.f7b28ef72cf6cb777f4123d7a8b47df2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.dcdcaedaf7995e78cab0a983a74db840.png

Clusters day 8-10 - quite a marked change from the output in the last couple of days, and a notable shift towards something more unsettled taking hold.

Just take a quick look back at yesterday's 00z clusters below. Nearly every box in the 8-10 day range has a red border (blocked outcome), whereas today at day 9/10 we only see green (negative NAO) and blue borders (positive NAO).

image.thumb.png.4295fee63992dc65d76b9475a8213c46.png


The usual September note of caution though. A quick check of the tropics and we can see it's quite active again. Of particular interest at the moment is the red X to the east of Florida. This has an above 70% chance of developing in the next few days, and if we scoot through to Monday's chart on this morning's ECM, you can clearly see it has blown up into a well developed system off the east coast of Canada. This will clearly impact ridges and troughs across the Atlantic, so forecasts remain volatile. The GFS pressure ensemble shows this well, with the usual scattergun of everything from strong high pressure to deep low pressure in the mixing bowl.

image.thumb.png.15d2f30bc68cce75051e2b63c7833d50.pngimage.thumb.png.31b700a2b05b54725eec4c33e195f94a.pngimage.thumb.png.ea1972260dcafdbcea5fcf7e9faa2083.png

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Far too early for getting excited, I think. But one thing is for certain -- there'll be no LP centered around South Biscay, come January!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, back in the Bat Cave, the SATSIGS are starting to stir:

t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS showing Autumn proper into Wk2 with Low Pressure systems pushing in off the Atlantic, With a cool enough N/W flow at times to possibly see the first snowfalls of the season on the highest peaks in the Highlands..

1436690439_viewimage(11).thumb.png.397ae2de8ed8527338f0a23dc302e57c.png261128196_viewimage(12).thumb.png.df271d42175cbedd5396781798653ded.png1620979309_viewimage(13).thumb.png.eddd0b2cd1e292db55f85dee297321c1.png1692847346_viewimage(14).thumb.png.2133ac894f8fef2ba133773be423ef8f.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, minus10 said:

I must admit i was pretty shocked to see this turnabout this morning  from the blocked outlook that has been the theme for some time. It will certainly be autumnal if this verifies...

image.thumb.png.f7b28ef72cf6cb777f4123d7a8b47df2.png

I quoted yesterday how unusual the output was with the block holding back what appears to be an invigorated Atlantic with early strong PV. At this time of year the balance should be tipping firmly in favour of the Atlantic winning out. No surprise to see the models flip today then.. could all be a blip.. but I'll be surprised if any backtrack now. We've had a very long period of an absent Atlantic by and large.. time running out..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I quoted yesterday how unusual the output was with the block holding back what appears to be an invigorated Atlantic with early strong PV. At this time of year the balance should be tipping firmly in favour of the Atlantic winning out. No surprise to see the models flip today then.. could all be a blip.. but I'll be surprised if any backtrack now. We've had a very long period of an absent Atlantic by and large.. time running out..

image.thumb.png.7905fd9bf8bb8470dac3fa1c2261ea6d.pngimage.thumb.png.11c16599e02be425a71a628e874bff17.png

The ECM run this morning was probably a bit too extreme in how unsettled it ended up, but the ensemble trend is clear to see - it's a downward trajectory.

For those of you wanting some 'proper' autumn weather after what has been an exceptionally warm and dry September so far for many (CET currently 3.3c above average), it might be here in a week or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.7905fd9bf8bb8470dac3fa1c2261ea6d.pngimage.thumb.png.11c16599e02be425a71a628e874bff17.png

The ECM run this morning was probably a bit too extreme in how unsettled it ended up, but the ensemble trend is clear to see - it's a downward trajectory.

For those of you wanting some 'proper' autumn weather after what has been an exceptionally warm and dry September so far for many (CET currently 3.3c above average), it might be here in a week or so.

Did September 2006 not do this as well a very warm dry first third, cooler wetter end.. once we go past the equinox the tables often turn.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Did September 2006 not do this as well a very warm dry first third, cooler wetter end.. once we go past the equinox the tables often turn.. 

2006 was wetter up to this point, largely due to the opening days and a wet period following the thundery breakdown around the 11th/12th. It was also much more mobile overall, despite the warmth, which gave for quite a tropical-feeling month at times for a September.

It would be rather fitting though, if it did turn more unsettled in the final third this month, as that's been the case for the last two years.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och well, up to Day 5, and the GFS 06Z is still mostly settled:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, up to Day 5, and the GFS 06Z is still mostly settled:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Aye Ed, then the wheels come flying off, Och well, I’ve seen worse at ma hoose! 

33DA0A1F-FCE2-405E-BA88-7D6611082E2D.thumb.png.ee8c51f1ebe898bcd67d384caa0c7e48.png49A6D111-CC23-4D7B-85BF-584A6FB4255C.thumb.png.bf6361a2341770dc2621c7059189719f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
15 minutes ago, MP-R said:

2006 was wetter up to this point, largely due to the opening days and a wet period following the thundery breakdown around the 11th/12th. It was also much more mobile overall, despite the warmth, which gave for quite a tropical-feeling month at times for a September.

It would be rather fitting though, if it did turn more unsettled in the final third this month, as that's been the case for the last two years.

Memory fading.. thanks for info. Trying to think of comparable Septembers.. 2016 possibly? We've had many very warm Septembers 8n recent years, rapidly becoming an extension of summer and often warmer than June..sometimes much more so. Gives credence to the notion autumn doesn't start until the equinox. 

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