model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey Mike I've just earned a new badge...so now I can mix it with the big boys!

UKMO looks pretty good at day 7 also..

Thanks Matt, yes I was wondering about the UKMO T168!  I think this looks potentially better longer term, but depends as we go into autumn whether heat is important or sunshine, if the latter you’d go for GEM, I think.  

Re the rank thing, I think from what @Paul said in the help area, it is rebuilding our ranks and badges from scratch and it will take a couple of days.  What it all means in the grander scheme of things is a mystery to me as of yet…

[Mike Poole]

ECM and ECM // at T144, for comparison with the other models I posted earlier:

Better ridge across on ECM, but cut off low is stronger than on the //,  I’m sure both will go on to ridge the high into and beyond the UK now, maybe a question of timescales.  Midway in the envelope of the other runs, with GEM at one end and GFS at the other.  Not that difference between these two is massive, it isn’t, and we’re heading for a settled spell.

Edited September 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mark wheeler]

Like the ending to the Navgem this evening . Oh and I have badges . I see others have them too . All exciting stuff .

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216 and ECM // T216:

Great ECM, backs up the other models.  Fail for the //, interesting because ECM // runs are not normally interesting, same starting conditions only slightly different model.  Gone rogue on this occasion!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Like the ending to the Navgem this evening . Oh and I have badges . I see others have them too . All exciting stuff .

Navgem is a very poor model! always for the bin

[Mike Poole]

JMA T180 and T264:

Brings UK high earlier but on a mission to send it to Russia, don’t buy this run.  

My average of the 12z runs has a UK high with slight drift east by day 10.  

All good re ranks, I’m a Veteran now, should be back to Maestro again by the 10 O’clock news, I reckon.  Whatever that means!

Edited September 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Well if you want to do anything that requires fine weather, next week is the time to do it.  Op models are keen on bringing settled weather by early next week.  And then you have the ECM clusters T192-T240:

Scandi high fest really, settled for UK, apart from the minor ones, cluster 4 delivers a plume, and. 5 and 6 bring the Atlantic in.  As if?  When did we last see that?  

[damianslaw]

Moving into the second half of September, which for me is the nadir for weather interest... 

[Cambrian]

ECM 12z - The rather gentle Atlantic visit at the end of this week seemingly easily repelled by a week today. 168h

 

A bridge of high pressure from the Azores to the Baltic taking us in properly by 192h

 

Some chillier nights and perhaps some chillier days on their way too by the end of the run. Well blocked. 

216h H500 / 240h T850 

 
 

That could be some very pleasant late September weather.

[Methuselah]

Strain as I might, I'm struggling to find any excitement in all this blocked autumnal sheet. Please, can someone give the Atlantic a dose of salts?

[MP-R]

25 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

ECM 12z - The rather gentle Atlantic visit at the end of this week seemingly easily repelled by a week today. 168h

 

A bridge of high pressure from the Azores to the Baltic taking us in properly by 192h

 

Some chillier nights and perhaps some chillier days on their way too by the end of the run. Well blocked. 

216h H500 / 240h T850 

 
 

That could be some very pleasant late September weather.

A great winter scenario for getting cold in from the east with a PV over Greenland way, although hopefully we won't be relying solely on that come the winter.

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Strain as I might, I'm struggling to find any excitement in all this blocked autumnal sheet. Please, can someone give the Atlantic a dose of salts?

I certainly wouldn't mind the blocked scenario as long as it's SUNNY! GFS charts are looking quite similar to what we had in August though, which brought in an unusual amount of cloud so I fear a rather boring settled spell rather than a sunny one. ECM makes more of the Atlantic with winds veering southeasterly again which would be better for sunshine levels.

 

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Navgem is a very poor model! always for the bin

Yep I agree . I've grown rather fond of it though over the years and post it now and then , it even got a scenario correct before others last year with a plume . 
 

The mighty Navgem shall have its day again .

[mb018538]

UK looks to right on the periphery of the battleground between a big Atlantic trough and a blocking high to the NE. Also note on this UKMO day 7 chart more tropical trouble lurking down the eastern seaboard, which is bound to mess things up even further! NOAA fancy the ridge to just about save us from the trough, though it could get close to western areas.

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UK looks to right on the periphery of the battleground between a big Atlantic trough and a blocking high to the NE. Also note on this UKMO day 7 chart more tropical trouble lurking down the eastern seaboard, which is bound to mess things up even further! NOAA fancy the ridge to just about save us from the trough, though it could get close to western areas.

Very settled ecm and gfs so far this morning!and once again who looks like the odd one out yup ukmo!!!!

[mb018538]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very settled ecm and gfs so far this morning!and once again who looks like the odd one out yup ukmo!!!!

ECM is very nice as you say! Pleasant days into the high teens/just into the low 20s.



Pretty dry for most too, though far NW Scotland could take a pasting:

[Frosty.]

Nice chart for anyone who is anti anticyclonic?! ? 

 

[mb018538]

Already a 20mb spread in pressure at day 6 on the GFS this morning. 1010mb to 1030mb!

[sheikhy]

57 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Already a 20mb spread in pressure at day 6 on the GFS this morning. 1010mb to 1030mb!

Actually now that you have posted these ensembles i can see why the ukmo has everything slightly further east!!maybe its on the correct path?!!

Edited September 15, 2021 by sheikhy

[snowking]

If it's early disruption to the fledgling vortex you're looking for, then there are far worse patterns to see at Day 10 than this:

We would ideally want a stronger negative Aleutian anomaly, but given these are ensemble means I would be happy to settle for that for now

[Methuselah]

Aaannnd: something autumnal that might get interesting -- the outside chance of a thunderstorm warning being realised. Yeah, right!

    

[Methuselah]

And, before I make any more nonsensical predictions, I've just been made redundant!

 

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, before I make any more nonsensical predictions, I've just been made redundant!

 

Yes, Pete, I thought that was a very well presented update!  And re next week, reflects  well what I have seen from the ECM ensembles in recent runs, blocking, Atlantic held at bay (I know some were eager to see it coming in!).  

Today, T144, I think UKMO sticking to its guns here, (I presume on the video it was the 0z), here 12z T144:

GFS, much more in tune with that message of keeping the trough at bay, T144:

 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Pete, I thought that was a very well presented update!  And re next week, reflects  well what I have seen from the ECM ensembles in recent runs, blocking, Atlantic held at bay (I know some were eager to see it coming in!).  

Today, T144, I think UKMO sticking to its guns here, (I presume on the video it was the 0z), here 12z T144:

GFS, much more in tune with that message of keeping the trough at bay, T144:

 

GEM with GFS T144:

Edited September 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, and the // as well:

Both go down the cut off low route, ridge in shortly on both, I would suggest?  

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120, and the // as well:

Both go down the cut off low route, ridge in shortly on both, I would suggest?  

2021 the year of the cut off low.. lost track how many we've seen since January.