model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[sheikhy]

Make the most of tomorrows rain whoever gets it cos looks like it could be settling down once again after that!!even now there are differences within the models in regards to that rainfall tomorrow morning!

[Mike Poole]

Yes, GFS looking very nice from T168, and a big scandi high by T240:

[Methuselah]

Crikey! The GFS 12Z really is a good run. Nice run, shame about tomorrow! All's well that ends well? Maybe not!

    

[Frosty.]

Interestingly looking at the longer term Gfs 12z op I stopped caring about what was happening in the u k (blah blah benign / yawn ) and my eyes were drawn to that cold plunge further NE…a case of the bigger picture grabbing my interest!!!!! 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Brief sum up...looks like improving,especially across the South after some potentially heavy rainfall tomorrow! Next week pretty good away from the NW....Great to see much colder air digging into Greenland also.

I can't go into to much technical analysis at the moment,because my profile as gone from a maestro to a newbie!

Just kidding. Love ❤ it.

Ending well...just love that frigid air mass to the NW....and potentially very warm in places further South next week..let's have Summer and Winter in one big blast...im gearing up for one hell of a chase this year.. im primed ..just need the final coat of lacquer

Edited September 13, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

Autumn warmth is hanging on in there. But, it cannae be long till the SATSIGS re-awake?

    

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I can't go into to much technical analysis at the moment,because my profile as gone from a maestro to a newbie!

Just kidding. Love ❤ it.

 

 

And I’ve gone from a maestro to a newbie to a veteran in a few hours…impressive  …love it though, great fun

 

Anyway, the GEFS 12z shows there could be yet another burst of summery weather during the last third of September depending on the position / orientation of the blocking high broadly to the E / NE? 

 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational has broadly speaking followed its earlier 0z with the Atlantic having more influence, particularly later and especially further NW, day 10 is battleground u k between the Scandi high and the Atlantic!…perhaps this won’t be smooth sailing ️ into a benign anticyclonic sunset after all?… !   

Edited September 13, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

ECM not that different to GFS at T168, T240, decent run, especially for the southeast.  

Given the model output recently, I am not at all convinced of any inroads made by the Atlantic this month - takes the total number of months to 10.  Could do with that being 14, and we’re sorted for winter…

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM not that different to GFS at T168, T240, decent run, especially for the southeast.  

Given the model output recently, I am not at all convinced of any inroads made by the Atlantic this month - takes the total number of months to 10.  Could do with that being 14, and we’re sorted for winter…

There is alot of cold pooling being forecast to the NW, and invigorated jet, looks like a NW-SE split, NW could be very wet with frontal activity and troughs coming unstuck against heights to the east, however, on the last chart we have a more typical zonal flow setting up with heights sinking into Europe. Will the plug be pulled and we steam roll into an atlantic onslaught.. most probably.

[Frosty.]

In my newbie opinion..  tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean suggests a generally changeable outlook (not completely settled by any means!) with the best of any fine spells associated with occasional ridging further s / se and most of the unsettled weather associated with lower heights further nw and especially later…broadly, gradually turning into a northwest / southeast split but it’s broad brush as it’s the mean… I think, on balance that the heights to the east will be strong enough to hold most of the Atlantic influence at bay, at least the further SE you are?

 

Edited September 13, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There is alot of cold pooling being forecast to the NW, and invigorated jet, looks like a NW-SE split, NW could be very wet with frontal activity and troughs coming unstuck against heights to the east, however, on the last chart we have a more typical zonal flow setting up with heights sinking into Europe. Will the plug be pulled and we steam roll into an atlantic onslaught.. most probably.

Not so sure about that...it looks a most definite NW/SE split to me,and if anything things could become more widely settled towards months end and early October!

The Atlantic is dead...and long may that continue.

[Cambrian]

Just some precipitation charts from me, to support the comments of others.

12z GFS 24h precipitation at 80h and a spooky green hooded figure lurking off the west coast of Ireland is for some reason accused of eating the last banana. 

 

144h accumulated total precipitation from the same GFS run. The banana remains as telling evidence.

 

Most of the rain shown over Eastern England falls before the end of tomorrow - accumulation by 36h

Same accumulated measures for 144h from 12z ECM and UKMO, avoiding any slip-ups.

 

In agreement with the GFS in keeping the greatest totals over the next 6 days, up to 80mm or more, over Ireland, but also 25-50mm possible in areas of Scotland, Wales and Western England (after tomorrow), precise distributions as to be expected differing considerably between the models. For once, the UKMO has higher totals than the ECM or GFS.

So wet for parts of Eastern England tomorrow, then after that, a NW / SE split through to the end of the week.

Could’ve associated banana with the last phrase there, lost opportunity. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Next week and further on looking pretty Blocked...anomalies and the mean looking pretty solid about that.

[sheikhy]

Looking seriously wet for central east england tomorrow morning on gfs 18z!!looking like some really heavy rainfall after what seems an aaage!!!but as i say gota make the most of it cos it looks dry for sometime there after!!

[MP-R]

34 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looking seriously wet for central east england tomorrow morning on gfs 18z!!looking like some really heavy rainfall after what seems an aaage!!!but as i say gota make the most of it cos it looks dry for sometime there after!!

Well... until Friday anyway. I wouldn't discount further rain until we can actually achieve high pressure over the country. Next week looks like a good bet for that at present, although as we know things can change.

Personally I'm hoping for a settled late September / early October period as I'll be in North Wales during that time.

[sheikhy]

Was meant to be peeing it here by now but it seems as though the bulk of the rain has pushed further east compared to what the 18z gfs forecasted last night!!ah well better make the most of the crappy light stuff to the west of it right now unless there some sort of intensification in the next hour or 2!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Was meant to be peeing it here by now but it seems as though the bulk of the rain has pushed further east compared to what the 18z gfs forecasted last night!!ah well better make the most of the crappy light stuff to the west of it right now unless there some sort of intensification in the next hour or 2!

meant to move NW not NE, lucky you then in Oadby, cos here meant to be washout until around 5pm

[sheikhy]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

meant to move NW not NE, lucky you then in Oadby, cos here meant to be washout until around 5pm

Latest ukv intensifies the rain over me in the next couple of hours so maybe we will get some heavy stuff!!!

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest ukv intensifies the rain over me in the next couple of hours so maybe we will get some heavy stuff!!!

Been absolutely pelting it down here now for about 90 mins! Already up to 6.5mm of rain with loads more to come.

End of the month and beyond looking insanely blocked on the ECM update last night. Look at all that red!



Day 10 chart this morning and the latest from NOAA matches up quite well to this:

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by mb018538

[minus10]

Drenching rains have kept me in this morning. However going forward looks as so it will be pretty dry in this part of the country owing to the NE HP block gaining strength re ECM 0z...

Not too cold either although potential for some foggy nights  

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Drenching rains have kept me in this morning. However going forward looks as so it will be pretty dry in this part of the country owing to the NE HP block gaining strength re ECM 0z...

Not too cold either although potential for some foggy nights  

A battle royale between the Atlantic and Scandi High, hopefully a repeat pattern for the Winter.

If the Atlantic does make inroads against the block, any fronts may become stationary with large rainfall totals for those caught beneath. East looking best for once this year.

[Cambrian]

GFS op 12z bringing in the hang-down trough for Friday (+72h) about 4mb deeper than the 6z, trying it’s best to form a cut-off surface low, which it did transiently on the next frame on the 6z, but not quite on the noon run (+75h). 

72h 12z / 6z

  

 

75h 12z / 6z

  

[Mike Poole]

I think at T144, UKMO looking best then GEM then GFS:

GFS just slower to clear the low incursion. 

Anyway, by T240, GEM is a stunner, and GFS not bad either:

Edited September 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think at T144, UKMO looking best then GEM then GFS:

GFS just slower to clear the low incursion. 

Anyway, by T240, GEM is a stunner, and GFS not bad either:

Hey Mike I've just earned a new badge...so now I can mix it with the big boys!

UKMO looks pretty good at day 7 also..