model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, 

Where exactly that trough s*its will determine our weather.  But only for a while, I would suggest..we will see… 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, well there is no way that is ever going to happen, next run please:

[Methuselah]

Well, it's good to see that there's nae much sign of anything cold and wet, just yet. But, Jeez, Autumn is boring!

    

    

    

Only a few weeks until the forced jollity season comes around: dank, dreary mornings and long dark evenings, and the endearing and pervasive aroma of roadside vomit!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 LIKE

[sebastiaan1973]

Amazing chart. -6 at 850 hPa Poland. Incredible. Never seen before in september. Anyone?

[danthetan]

9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Amazing chart. -6 at 850 hPa Poland. Incredible. Never seen before in september. Anyone?

  was just looking at that, wonder what the dew points would be in that setup? 

[ICE COLD]

Well the time is fast approaching and just while we’re waiting the ECM comes up with this . Pretty cold in Eastern Europe for September

[bluearmy]

That ecm run certainly whets the winter appetite with disrupting troughs and building scandi upper ridge advecting unusually cold uppers into e Europe 

the scandi upper ridge at that timescale looks pretty solid 

[LetItSnow!]

Wintry showers and hard frosts to end September? I’d take it. Interesting output from the ECM but I never take anything at day 10 too seriously. Would be funny if we had similarly cold conditions in Sep/Oct as in April. If I had a penny for every time a “no way that could happen” chart actually happened I might be close to purchasing a Freddo.  

Edited September 12, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[Allseasons-Si]

Hay guys how are we doin

i am liking the gefs mean esp into week two,...can we have one final warm spell before we go into Autumn proper?

this morning's day ten EPS mean(latest one not out yet)shows a Scandi high gaining traction i see and it also shows that cold pool into eastern Europe that has been mentioned from this evenings ECM

ECM 240.

 

[northwestsnow]

Well it's but one det but some sort of blocking high over scandy looks a good shout.

Certainly the negative temp anomaly on EC is noticeable for Western Russia,the Baltics through Belarus ...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational….It is indeed very true what they say.. …winter is coming!..dec 1st for sure!….…but possibly much earlier?!! 

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by jon snow

[Northernlights]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Wintry showers and hard frosts to end September? I’d take it. Interesting output from the ECM but I never take anything at day 10 too seriously. Would be funny if we had similarly cold conditions in Sep/Oct as in April. If I had a penny for every time a “no way that could happen” chart actually happened I might be close to purchasing a Freddo.  

I wonder if this is what all the geese that came south in the last few days of   August could sense.  Quite a lot of farmers round the Firth commented on Twitter  that they were three weeks early and they had never seen this before. On the other hand quite usual to see snow on high tops of Scottish mountains at the equinoxial gale time.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Northernlights

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

MJO phase 3 and 4  fitting well with the models Scandinavian trough then high, funnily enough the ECM doesn't currently go for the stronger move into phase 4 but other models do 

[Methuselah]

Well, there's growing interest up around the Arctic. GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

Meanwhile, the warmth goes on?

[Frosty.]

It looks quite a changeable / unsettled ECM 0z operational with just a few very brief ridges, indeed the Atlantic really powers up longer term with northwestern areas bearing the brunt of it…it could be an outlier, I will be amazed if it isn’t because the signal generally is all about blocking from the E / NE…unbelievable differences between last evenings 12z and this 0z op! 

Edited September 13, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

A more typical looking set up on this morning's ECM for the UK - low pressure closer to the W/NW, with slightly high pressure to the E/SE. !0 day ppn chart above highlights this, with the wettest weather in the west, and always drier in the east.

It's been notably dry here in the last month. I've only seen 8mm of rain here in the last 30 days.

Chart below from Dan Holley showing how dry much of this region has been. A marked change from early summer!

[mb018538]

These are very interesting. Look at cluster 2 developing a huge UK high again by day 10! Cluster 4 and 6 also show ridging and high pressure.



None of the day 10-15 clusters have a full on low pressure assault either. 1 & 3 especially very anticyclonic, while cluster 2 shows the type of set up that could develop a heatwave at the end. All very intriguing!

[mountain shadow]

The models showing an end to quite extraordinary dry period we've had in the North West with proper autumnal weather arriving next week.

The benign weather has been great but I welcome the chance of some decent stormy weather.

[sheikhy]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

These are very interesting. Look at cluster 2 developing a huge UK high again by day 10! Cluster 4 and 6 also show ridging and high pressure.



None of the day 10-15 clusters have a full on low pressure assault either. 1 & 3 especially very anticyclonic, while cluster 2 shows the type of set up that could develop a heatwave at the end. All very intriguing!

Thats just madness!!how long is this dry spell gona last!!looks like forever at the moment!!apart from a few hours of rain tomorrow there is nothing significant in terms of rainfall for my area at the very least!!

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Thats just madness!!how long is this dry spell gona last!!looks like forever at the moment!!apart from a few hours of rain tomorrow there is nothing significant in terms of rainfall for my area at the very least!!

Oh yes there is ! Plenty of rain for you tomorrow perhaps a months worth of rain in one day!

[sheikhy]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Oh yes there is ! Plenty of rain for you tomorrow perhaps a months worth of rain in one day!

Looks quite heavy doesnt it!latest 06z gfs agrees with the above as well !imagine if that was all snow!!!!

[mb018538]

31 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks quite heavy doesnt it!latest 06z gfs agrees with the above as well !imagine if that was all snow!!!!

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

Tomorrow is potentially very wet in some areas..

Issued: 10:14 (UTC+1) on Mon 13 Sep 2021

An area of rain is expected to move northeastwards across much of England on Tuesday, with thunder in a few places. 15-25 mm of rain is likely quite widely with up to 40 mm in a few places, leading to some flooding and disruption. However, there is a small chance that this rain will especially intense in a few places with 50-70 mm possible, and more significant disruption where this occurs. The rain will clear slowly northeastwards during the day, perhaps lasting into the night across parts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.

We could see a months worth of rain in a day. GFS has 40mm falling from midnight to early afternoon:

[mb018538]

Another thing on tomorrow's low:



Quite an innocuous looking feature, but lots of trouble! Triple point frontal systems often bring heavy rain where the tri-point meets.

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Oh yes there is ! Plenty of rain for you tomorrow perhaps a months worth of rain in one day!

Yep - the GFS picked this up quite a few days ago. Could be quite showery on Wednesday and Thursday too according the UKMO.