Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 11th July onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, perhaps we are in for an east vs west battle?.. but the west (Atlantic) ultimately wins?…wow I think I’m talking too myself..I’m outa here! ..ps.. well done Ed, between us we have kept the mod alive..barely!

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Ok..seriously..who would be an expert when we have variations like this in the GEFS 12z.. huh???…however, cutting through the chaos we may have a middle ground which means eventually  a northwest / southeast split?.. jeez at least I’m trying?..nobody else is!!…ps.. this is my last post today.. I’m gone! ..night all..

96A61B0A-CC6E-45C9-955D-8F8BCB3588F4.thumb.png.c45fd5461672553987cd7f313bc93d21.pngE6BDC759-0C18-4B8C-91EA-7D1628C8A7D4.thumb.png.b9be2b0a94654b63ea6176ec46da0424.png

Not too unusual to see individual ensemble members so far detached in 16 days time! 
All depends how far the Atlantic trough can make inroads against higher pressure to the east.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Strikingly similar charts from 12z ECM and the GFS op at 144h and 168h, which we haven’t seen for a while. 
 

Time for “Spot the difference”!

ECM / GFS 144h

02883C79-4440-4C12-B84F-B753F32AD321.thumb.png.cfda24b99ddda699ff57bb3a43f2d531.png DB68140A-51D0-4A51-A5F6-604E96FA099D.thumb.png.35771deb5e0d08cf9ce1c02cc7c07112.png

 

ECM / GFS 168h

F5D5159F-2250-4C31-BA5D-CE4101123C4B.thumb.png.80280fa570edac4cfb4c199e81365e6d.png 4EE2E13E-A9B3-458A-A26B-806D910B9435.thumb.png.4bce3d1afae595de0640aac8795170a0.png
 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not too unusual to see individual ensemble members so far detached in 16 days time! 
 

I was merely trying to stir some interest in the model output discussion..I largely failed..see you tomorrow..maybe?..ps.. I’m really gone this time, honest guv!…

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ok this is broad brush but for much of the GEFS 6z mean the Atlantic is predominantly held at bay because of heights to the east / northeast (once they develop)!  …but later the Atlantic exploits a weakness and becomes more influential, at least further nw / n….so, a ding dong battle between east and west..sound familiar? …I guess because we are ultimately at the mercy of the Atlantic, the Atlantic always wins in the end, like the house always wins! ..wow really frosty, I never knew that..doh!  

275F53F2-6B74-49BB-BFF4-98047DD1873F.thumb.png.1b5916d8831eb9423009f44398aa180f.png

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

On the 12z runs, after the brief and rather circumspect Atlantic incursion, the ECM and GFS op both build a Baltic-centred high by 192h.

ECM / GFS 192h

39117DCB-5621-4620-B772-AAEA3D9E8F90.thumb.png.8508d69259f3c4fac127bb9ea4376264.png 4FA32DD6-7D33-46C3-B446-5C35C9EDEA66.thumb.png.1e1525f89c2c56a4d1eb7e493ac8a749.png

 

Different evolution thereafter though. The GFS develops a deep low over Iceland by 240h to set up an East / West battle with the high….

GFS 240h

3C76C033-5B57-4B11-863C-27A7AEEFA344.thumb.png.76cd09ebf57ca4786a9f084503f86c39.png

 

while the ECM develops a low over northern France trying to undercut the Scandinavian high on its southern flank, where it all stolidly remains for the next three months giving us something extremely interesting to talk about. 

ECM 240h
531E4D4A-25C0-4EB6-B0B9-6A398F7C20EB.thumb.png.acf97141a1c697acaf8484bf019d5d30.png

Edited by Cambrian
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the mid / longer term GEFS 0z mean, quite a benign / blocked outlook could be ours?   ☀️

DB84BC83-5F9E-4514-85F9-00E0A2C9A7EB.thumb.png.0a1f13d0cd70dcf8e33830298ca55db6.png4703921D-88D8-441A-A443-773F29DBCD5E.thumb.png.fa0103522d34d3dc23c960a2b52cac88.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's a good GFS 00Z run this morning. And, with a small slice of luck, the current warm conditions might even see out the month?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

I must confess that, at this very important juncture, my interest in the weather hits its nadir at this time of year.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's a good GFS 00Z run this morning. And, with a small slice of luck, the current warm conditions might even see out the month?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

I must confess that, at this very important juncture, my interest in the weather hits its nadir at this time of year.

Mine does as well, hence only the odd comment at the moment from me..

UKMO and ECM vs GFS at the moment. UKMO and ECM trending more atlantic influenced through the coming week, ridge to the east doesn't gain the same foothold, unusually GFS is the other way round. Who to believe?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Slightly more unsettled ecm this morning but not backed by its ensembles it seems!!!even then not really much rainfall from the ecm!monday night seems to he a bit more significant in terms of rainfall for parts of england but even then all other models dont agree and are all over the place!!astonishing disagreement for such a short time frame!!we are talkin 24  to 36 hours from now!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UKMO day 7 is more akin to GFS than ECM and EPS don’t seem very keen to drop a low in so I daresay the scenario of mainly dry and warm conditions continuing for England & perhaps Wales right through next weekend is the favourite.

Some blips in there though - rain affecting the middle slice late today through tomorrow, which looks distinctly cool in that region, then probably a decaying front crossing NW-SE on Fri, unless GFS proves right to stall it in the north and dismantle it there.

Edited by Singularity
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

0z ECM and UKMO setting up similarly for the end of the week at 120h, with subtle differences in the depth and position of the centre of the Iceland low.

6763CCB5-AF71-4C8B-8D1C-D8C998F67B2B.thumb.png.9da01205e8a2c9ac8c6a11d68c6edbe5.png 87160018-08D0-4424-B4EE-68F76F671C68.thumb.png.f50a6aee272aee93a742b6d84fba21f0.png


The t+120 fax from noon yesterday shows the gang of fronts embedded in the southwesterly flow.

79C57615-9767-4E4E-BF63-1B73689B923E.thumb.gif.7ff0d9fd4fa39ec1dcfac206103afea8.gif
 

It looks like it could be one of those situations where places in the north and west get frequent days of steady rain under a conveyer belt of fronts and wave depressions with gaps in between (day on, day off) and ultimately achieve some quite high rainfall totals over a week or so, while further south and east enjoys largely dry and mild weather, warm at times. 

The ECM seems to very likely overegg the 24 hour totals but shows the potential.  24 hour totals at 144h, 168h, 192h, 216h, 240h.

A7A9C24D-A71B-481D-8964-ADF005579071.thumb.png.975752f41fb170027b06951961bc46a6.png ADBE901A-86AA-4116-87C4-0F86F7D81C67.thumb.png.9235fe5f19990a73031bbd3c63a250bb.png 3DF107E8-571B-4B2A-A17D-71337D763979.thumb.png.c265acfac75d7d61a722e9ee2ab1ef9a.png D41AE50E-0BC1-4849-9AE3-4E098CD7EFC4.thumb.png.111609d01f5ef422cb3742d585631dce.png 42BF07FE-2CE2-48ED-A665-1D1825BEE29A.thumb.png.ff94babc2c1e081b67f38fd4f071d4b2.png

Edited by Cambrian
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I will add that places in the far n / ne (including the northern isles) have been remarkably dry during the last several months and I’m sure they will be hoping the ECM is right about frequent days of steady rain? 

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

An interesting case of how runs can diverge, there GFS and GEM at T144:

045D3871-22EE-4775-A1EB-0440E85C2990.thumb.png.548558b04e9962f50634a050bf497afa.pngC25B4736-154D-4198-8BDB-20230837E486.thumb.png.cab94f7ed0d52be228e01d0ff5c75166.png

And here at T240:

BAA61EB7-73CA-442E-9234-4B23F62B8A9D.thumb.png.3b8cfa212fd95f1ee0b94a93c60dcc97.png39A4B466-9EA8-4989-ADDB-7ADC7A4704BD.thumb.png.7de91b80ec95ca992d850af61bde4ccc.png

My view is that after months of blocked weather patterns, since December last year, the last month we are going to see a change in, is the usually settled September.  So I’m with the GFS on this one.  The Atlantic isn’t going to come barrelling through any time soon…we will see with regards to winter…

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...