model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Scorcher]

53 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

It’s things like that that can hammer down the C.E.T.  I’m looking forward to the prospect of some beautiful chilly nights with frost and fog. Winter is coming  

Summer is coming more like...no chilly nights next week that's for sure!

[Captain Shortwave]

The models suggest that we could get another low sinking west of Iberia at the end of the week.

UKMO

ECM

 

Certainly a chance of rebuilding heights over Western Europe for next weekend. The ECM develops a rather brisk south easterly that would probably still be very warm.

The GFS/GEM are far quicker and subsequently further west and pull a northerly down before high pressure builds in. The two outcomes both offer something more settled after a brief spell of wetter weather at the end of this week.

Worth noting even the cyclonic conditions at the end of this week will still see temperatures on the warm side unless there is plenty of cloud around.

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten from the ECM is much improved from it's 00z run this morning,...and i thought that i would throw in the JMA too

 

[Methuselah]

And, with the unwanted exception of the operational run going on a post-mid-month Magical Mystery Tour, the 12Z GEFS temperature ensembles look largely fine:

      

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, despite alignment of the ex-tropical storm with the jet earlier in the run, the trough still sits in the Atlantic and the block resurges:

Which kind of brings me to the subject of winter.  It has almost been a year now since the Atlantic last properly dominated our weather…and it is tantalising to think that this could extend just a few more months…it is hard to say what has caused this, but it has happened in the past, the prevailing westerlies have just gone away for ages.  If Autumn doesn’t break this pattern (it might) then we could be in luck for some early winter cold - bear in mind that summer has been cool apart from early July and next week - a quick cool down is more likely next winter than any since 2010 in my opinion.

[Frosty.]

This is actually not a bad day 10 at all from the ECM 12z operational, for example, the uppers (850’s) look very similar to tomorrow (Monday) and compared to the 0z op longer term, it’s a significant improvement!….as has been mentioned a few times, tropical storms across the Atlantic make any medium / longer term forecast have low confidence attached! 

 

[damianslaw]

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, despite alignment of the ex-tropical storm with the jet earlier in the run, the trough still sits in the Atlantic and the block resurges:

Which kind of brings me to the subject of winter.  It has almost been a year now since the Atlantic last properly dominated our weather…and it is tantalising to think that this could extend just a few more months…it is hard to say what has caused this, but it has happened in the past, the prevailing westerlies have just gone away for ages.  If Autumn doesn’t break this pattern (it might) then we could be in luck for some early winter cold - bear in mind that summer has been cool apart from early July and next week - a quick cool down is more likely next winter than any since 2010 in my opinion.

Last time we had such a quiet atlantic was indeed 2010.. 

[Frosty.]

Bar the odd blip, the GEFS 12z mean looks remarkably quiet / settled into late September!…of course this is very broad brush and there’s always a risk that ex tropical storms may have something to say about this! 

[Mike Poole]

JMA 12z has a great evolution:

Clusters T192-T240:

A smorgasbord there of possible evolutions, but clear is a trough in the Atlantic, this may be boosted by ex-tropical storms, so expect high pressure to dominate in September - as of course it often does.  

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean longer term has quite a benign / pleasant look to it?…it may well be that despite the threat of ex tropical storms disrupting things, we may end up actually pretty fine for the most part?  

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The day ten ECM mean is looking OK folks

and the EPS are an improvement also than previous runs,those Scandi/Euro height's are acting as a buffer deflecting systems NE away from the UK,...net result,...we stay south of the jet so should stay on the warm side.

 

[Cambrian]

Yes, fascinating stuff, all on a knife edge with a by now well-established warm and dry start to September and a tropical storm season that’s looking like it’s well up for it. 

Differences being ironed out this evening at 120h between the ECM and GFS op from 12z today. Both now have the UK sat in a shallow low  of between 1004-1012 mb and a mid-Atlantic low at 1008 mb. 

ECM vs GFS 120h

 

 

However, the consensus is lost quickly by 144h and even more so by 168h, ECM starts travelling the Atlantic low to our southwest, deepening a bit to 1004 mb, putting us in a potentially thundery looking southeasterly flow by next Sunday at 168h, UK mostly sitting in 1008-1012mb….

ECM 144h/168h

 

 

while the GFS builds a high pressure out to the west of Ireland, putting us in a cooler but dry looking northwesterly at 1020-1024mb. 

GFS 144h/168h

 

Still, what’s a totally different air mass type, 180 degrees in wind direction and 12mb barometric pressure between friends? 

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe remains short at present. 96hrs tops. Expect lots of changes from the models run to run beyond this timeframe. Ex hurricane activity throwing spanners in the work. It is quite a complex scenario. 

[Frosty.]

Somehow, despite all the tropical storm activity…etc..etc.., the Gfs 0z op looks largely benign for our little dot on the map and late September looks like this…very pleasant indeed, we are leading a charmed life it seems…somebody up there likes us!!  

 
 

Edited September 6, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

'Benign' does indeed look like this morning's watchword:

    

    

    

And now for a day of sun-drenched weeding!

[sheikhy]

Very dry runs again this morning from ecm and gfs!!!!long may it continue!!the rain can come back in november lol!!sorry i meant snow!!

Edited September 6, 2021 by sheikhy

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 0z mean longer term, on the face of it, we are looking at a predominantly anticyclonic outlook, I can’t see anything particularly nasty lurking in the woodshed?! ?  

 

 

[Frosty.]

Is this the last hurrah this year for proper heat?….well, if it is, it looks amazing on the ECM 0z operational!…enjoy / endure depending on your preferences?!…beyond the thundery breakdown it looks like a very slack pattern (void of nothingness) with no weather!..  although I’m sure there will be some weather… ?!  

 

 

Edited September 6, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

A fairly benign outlook, as others have said. Even the unsettled stuff isn't desperately unsettled.







No sign of a full on zonal onslaught just yet. Nothing too untoward in either the GFS or ECM ensembles. Hurricanes still the big unknown, though once Larry is gone it's looking a touch quieter after a very active period.

[Cambrian]

Starting in the southwest on Wednesday, some rain for most by the end of Thursday (good for the garden!) and again on Friday according to the ECM at 0z. Wettest on Wednesday / Thursday in parts of the west and north and over Ireland.

24h precipitation at +72h / 96h / 120h 

  

Some notable instability showing up on the CAPE charts for Thursday afternoon so there might well be a bang or two.

 

ECM then taking the Atlantic low for the weekend a bit further south on the 0z run compared with the run of.noon yesterday and it doesn’t deepen so much. This makes a bit of a difference for the UK and Ireland with pressure around 1016mb, light and variable winds in a col, though it does look like the low softly brings up some warm air from the south in the slack flow in front of it.

ECM 0z +144h

 

Clearly still plenty of scope then for some heavy showers again on both Saturday and more especially on Sunday.

24h precipitation at +144h / 168h

 

So maybe not a classic thundery southerly being set up, but thundery in any case!

Edited September 6, 2021 by Cambrian

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational shows another plume mid month, I guess with the type of pattern we have, another plume is probably a reasonable bet in approx the timeframe shown? ⛈ 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Bloody hell guys im roasting here...what's going on!  

How are things looking further on? I'm thinking bar a little blip we could be looking at a fair amount of warm and at times humid conditions over the next 10 days.

Pressure looks perhaps on the slack side from Gem,but plenty of orange colours around the UK,and most definitely staying warm! Not bad for the time of year,but perhaps it's not as uncommon as some would have you believe.

Just put fans on for crying out loud...my rooms like a Turkish sauna..

Great evening for a stroll with your other halves,and perhaps a cheeky one at your local.

Enjoy if you can...should bring an EC46 update around 10pm...hopefully a good one.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Bloody hell guys im roasting here...what's going on!  

How are things looking further on? I'm thinking bar a little blip we could be looking at a fair amount of warm and at times humid conditions over the next 10 days.

Pressure looks perhaps on the slack side from Gem,but plenty of orange colours around the UK,and most definitely staying warm! Not bad for the time of year,but perhaps it's not as uncommon as some would have you believe.

Just put fans on for crying out loud...my rooms like a Turkish sauna..

Great evening for a stroll with your other halves,and perhaps a cheeky one at your local.

Enjoy if you can...should bring an EC46 update around 10pm...hopefully a good one.

I keep forgetting I’m off next week as well. Would be nice to see that come off.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I keep forgetting I’m off next week as well. Would be nice to see that come off.

Fingers crossed Chris..  you could be looking good  

[sheikhy]

And the runs continue with the extreme dry conditions well into september!!!got to 28 degrees here today!!