model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

Sensational uppers (850’s) on the ECM 12z op next week!…30c is possible in favoured spots?….beyond that, I think with the tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, confidence in any particular outcome is very low at the moment! 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by jon snow

[Don]

14 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Sensational uppers (850’s) on the ECM 12z op next week!…30c is possible in favoured spots?….beyond that, I think with the tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, confidence in any particular outcome is very low at the moment! 

 

I would have thought so, possibly higher in some favored spots?

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe short at present, Wednesday tops. Lots of uncertainty thereafter. Some form of trough feature looks likely to develop to the SW, but how this develops is subject to change. ECM going for a deepening feature that moves north and eventually becomes squeezed by pressure rise to the NE.

UKMO going for an even deeper feature with strong ridge to the west, a chilly northerly thereafter.

GFS making less of the feature, indeed just shows a flabby shallow low that fills/lifts out replaced by high pressure.

Not convinced with GFS. A blend of UKMO and ECM most probable. However, the models are flip flopping around at the 120 hrs, expect more changes.

In the short term, some rain for the NW, first time in 2 weeks tomorrow and into Monday, becoming very warm, locally hot in southern and central parts, with a breakdown by Thursday. After weeks of uninteresting weather, things have become much more interesting again!

Edited September 4, 2021 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

However the chips may fall beyond the hot spell, these are fantastic charts from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean for the time of year if you like it very warm / hot?!…excellent chances that storm fans will be happy too as things are likely to end with a bang or even a boom!   ⛈ 

 

[ChannelThunder]

On 04/09/2021 at 21:17, jon snow said:

However the chips may fall beyond the hot spell, these are fantastic charts from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean for the time of year if you like it very warm / hot?!…excellent chances that storm fans will be happy too as things are likely to end with a bang or even a boom!   ⛈ 

 

Been waiting for years for my birthday month of September to deliver charts like this! Jackanackanory!

[ChannelThunder]

On 04/09/2021 at 21:17, jon snow said:

However the chips may fall beyond the hot spell, these are fantastic charts from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean for the time of year if you like it very warm / hot?!…excellent chances that storm fans will be happy too as things are likely to end with a bang or even a boom!   ⛈ 

 

Duplicate post. Apologies.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Lance M

[Frosty.]

Again there’s some incredible charts this morning, this from the ECM 0z operational!…potential for somewhere around 30c 86f give or take a degree or so…and once again, we need to keep an eye on the Atlantic sector as longer term, the ecm is influenced by a tropical storm which weakens and turns into an Atlantic depression heading towards the NW of the u k later…but overall it’s a very warm run with plenty of humidity as time goes on, plenty of fine sunny weather initially and then increasing thunderstorm potential..am I right, or am I right?   ⛈ 

Meanwhile, the Gfs 0z op is largely dominated by high pressure and has strong ensemble support too, for sure there’s a thundery breakdown later in the week ahead but high pressure soon returns!  

[Methuselah]

Sadly, though hardly surprisingly, this morning's GEFS ensembles no longer offer much support for a second heatwave. Perhaps some of the previous 'predictions' were, after all, a tad over-optimistic?

    

[Methuselah]

But just like a knight in shining armour, the 06Z comes to the rescue. Sort of!

    

    

    

Just so long as all the cold rubbish stays over Greenland!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Tomorrow night’s temperatures have been catching my eye for a couple of days, won’t be far off the highest minimum temperature record I think, from the midlands strecthing to the north east of there  

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Tomorrow night’s temperatures have been catching my eye for a couple of days, won’t be far off the highest minimum temperature record I think, from the midlands strecthing to the north east of there  

I'd be surprised if that 21.7 C record is broken but you never know, It's not too unusual to have minima between 15 and 18C in September warm spells.

[Frosty.]

Wow there’s some big guns viewing the model output discussion right now!..and I’m not surprised with charts like these from the 6z op!…the week ahead could be quite exciting for the first time since..erm. …July ..let there be thunder..Thor!!!!!!!  ⛈ 

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

And here are the GEFS temperature ensembles: two distinct clusters and, thankfully, the bigger one is the warm one!

    

[Frosty.]

Och well, apart from Ed, I’m all on my lonesome! ..anyhoo, the GEFS 6z mean supports predominantly anticyclonic out to mid sept?..and who knows..maybe beyond?! ..that’s not to say it’s perfik..of course not, tropical storm activity across the Atlantic could have something to say about this..but it’s just my current thoughts based on this run!!!..if they count for anything?! …ps.. don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten the potentially wet / thundery conditions beyond midweek!!! 

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by jon snow

[Allseasons-Si]

I here you @jon snow,Karl,Frosty...you are not alone my friend

i just hope that the gefs mean is on to something here cos the ECM mean is,...well,not as good although the temp anomaly is better

here they are is comparison...

trough/low a bit closer to our SW on the ecm mean but who's to say that both of these are right out to day ten

..it's nice out there and we have some sunshine for a change,...lovely

have a good day all

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Och well, apart from Ed, I’m all on my lonesome! ..anyhoo, the GEFS 6z mean supports predominantly anticyclonic out to mid sept?..and who knows..maybe beyond?! ..that’s not to say it’s perfik..of course not, tropical storm activity across the Atlantic could have something to say about this..but it’s just my current thoughts based on this run!!!..if they count for anything?! …ps.. don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten the potentially wet / thundery conditions beyond midweek!!! 

 

I've been a wee bit busy, Karl, I've been putting my Scottish Saltire flag in the window. And, just like the weather outlook, it's nae bad!

[Frosty.]

Well, according too the ICON 12z it’s a slam dunk that once all that pent up energy is released following the hot increasingly humid spell, it will become more unsettled with rain and probable thunder during the second half of the week!   

 

[Eagle Eye]

You know me, always up for a good storm, kind if wish it wasn't a school night but hey ho. 

[Allseasons-Si]

"JUST FOR FUN"

but snow showers into Shetland isles on this gfs run 

[Frosty.]

If anything, the Gfs 12z operational has upgraded the heat for Tuesday, I spotted several 29c in there! ….so Shirley 30-31c 87f is possible?…..anyway, following a more unsettled showery spell with thunder during the second half of the week, mid sept looks dry, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm…anyone agree with this prognosis?   

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

If anything, the Gfs 12z operational has upgraded the heat for Tuesday, I spotted several 29c in there! ….so Shirley 30-31c 87f is possible?…..anyway, following a more unsettled showery spell with thunder during the second half of the week, mid sept looks dry, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm…anyone agree with this prognosis?   

 

Yes, good run from the GFS, unsettled hiatus in the middle late next week, that’s probably  factored in now, GEM run is also excellent for building mid-September warmth.  Classic September spell incoming I think:

[LetItSnow!]

54 minutes ago, jon snow said:

If anything, the Gfs 12z operational has upgraded the heat for Tuesday, I spotted several 29c in there! ….so Shirley 30-31c 87f is possible?…..anyway, following a more unsettled showery spell with thunder during the second half of the week, mid sept looks dry, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm…anyone agree with this prognosis?   

 

That chart for Sept. 14th looks beautiful, though with the wind gently coming in from the North Sea would that bring back the risk of cloud in eastern and southern districts? Also, come mid-September, any high pressure cantered directly over the country will start to bring some cool nights. Perhaps those craving misty mornings with a nip in the air will be satisfied, especially getting those colours on the leaves going!

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 18:50, LetItSnow! said:

That chart for Sept. 14th looks beautiful, though with the wind gently coming in from the North Sea would that bring back the risk of cloud in eastern and southern districts? Also, come mid-September, any high pressure cantered directly over the country will start to bring some cool nights. Perhaps those craving misty mornings with a nip in the air will be satisfied, especially getting those colours on the leaves going!

Yep the first frosts are shown on the 12z GFS

 

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep the first frosts are shown on the 12z GFS

 

It’s things like that that can hammer down the C.E.T.  I’m looking forward to the prospect of some beautiful chilly nights with frost and fog. Winter is coming  

[Mike Poole]

Very messy so far from ECM, ex-tropical storm seemed to align with the jet, here at T192, not a good run compared to the others.  But all of this is in the mix with the ex-tropical storms, we’re none the wiser, really: