model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mb018538]

You might expect the ECM 00z run to be a crazy outlier with that heat...



Ok - it's a little outside the envelope, but the mean is now up to around 13c and looks pretty warm anyway.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You might expect the ECM 00z run to be a crazy outlier with that heat...



Ok - it's a little outside the envelope, but the mean is now up to around 13c and looks pretty warm anyway.

One of those moments where the mean is catching up with the op!!

[Captain Shortwave]

On 01/09/2021 at 08:15, Man Without Beard said:

From the ridiculous to the sublime on ECM, compared with 24 hours ago. Now forecasting a heatwave all next week with temps in the high 20s, not far away from 30C early on.

I must admit I kind of gave up yesterday after looking at the morning runs that were keeping a NE feed until the approaching fronts arrived. To see the winds beer south easterly and remain so for several days is quite a turnaround.

Still not out of the woods, the GEM still pushes fronts through the U.K. though it is messy and not a clear victory with high pressure remaining to the east.

Worst case scenario still gives a reasonable day on Sunday as the cloud is finally allowed to break and clear away.

[Methuselah]

Talk about 'deceptive'!      

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feel EC still wrong! they will all flip I think to unsettled! not sure what model netweather use, but on homepage 'rain to end the weekend' do forecasters on here know something?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Am I missing something here? Yet another very warm run from the GFS with a perfect flow off the continent early next week for warm temps and sunshine.

Yet the Met Office and BBC are not having it at all. UKMO doesn't look as good but it has been the most unsettled of all the main models over the past couple of days.

It almost feels to me as if their forecasting systems have got stuck on 'cool and cloudy' due to the monotonously cloudy weather we've been having recently.

I think mate that the met are now possibly hinting at this evolution! There app as me up towards 24c now come Tuesday with sunny spells...

GFS 6z again hints at a much warmer warmer scenario pulling up..perhaps tropical storm uncertainty having a key factor in the models big swings these last 24hrs.

We could finish the Summer with a boom! And we bloody deserve it.

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think mate that the met are now possibly hinting at this evolution! There app as me up towards 24c now come Tuesday with sunny spells...

GFS 6z again hints at a much warmer warmer scenario pulling up..perhaps tropical storm uncertainty having a key factor in the models big swings these last 24hrs.

We could finish the Summer with a boom! And we bloody deserve it.

Yes they finally seem to be catching on now- you'd think they'd be ahead of the game though rather than behind. It seems to happen so often!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Look at that Low pressure around Iceland,and the crazy low uppers being pulled into Western Greenland around the flank of the Low..wow

Is it possible to be getting excited for late summer warmth and cold winter sypnotics all at the same time!

Edited September 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MP-R]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Look at that Low pressure around Iceland,and the crazy low uppers being pulled into Western Greenland around the flank of the Low..wow

Is it possible to be getting excited for late summer warmth and cold winter sypnotics all at the same time!

That's a perfect recipe for big cyclogenesis if the two lows merged. The weekend after this coming one has consistently shown as potentially bring the first proper autumn blow, it's how we get there that has been uncertain (and I'm so glad it might be via a much more summery route). GFS is suggesting some potential thundery interest next week too, which would go very nicely with a late burst of warmth.

[Methuselah]

A pretty good GFS 06Z today, IMO. Good riddance to bad rubbish?

    

    

    

I'll be more than happy, should things stay like that until the first week in December -- it'll keep the North Sea lovely and warm, in time for the first lot of -12C uppers?

[Methuselah]

Well, there's certainly the potential there for some early autumn warmth?

    

[Guest]

In the short term looks like GFS is way too aggressive in clearing the cloud through the next few days. ECM and ARPEGE much more on the money and keep the low cloud right though into the weekend without a hint of it breaking. 

Edited September 1, 2021 by Alderc

[sheikhy]

39 minutes ago, Alderc said:

In the short term looks like GFS is way too aggressive in clearing the cloud through the next few days. ECM and ARPEGE much more on the money and keep the low cloud right though into the weekend without a hint of it breaking. 

Gfs has been incorrect on cloud amounts for the last 10 days!!pretty atrocious from such a major global model!!!and we are not talking days out its been out and incorrect in real time as well!!

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs has been incorrect on cloud amounts for the last 10 days!!pretty atrocious from such a major global model!!!and we are not talking days out its been out and incorrect in real time as well!!

Yup, it’s completely wrong again even on this morning 06z run 9 hours out. 
 

It’s forecast for now has most of England clearing rapidly. Below is 15Z, by 18Z all of England is clear.
 

I’m reality

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144:

It is a question of how close this trough gets now, I think.  Could be wet and miserable, thundery or hot, depending.  Anyway, a change after this spell of anticyclonic gloom will be a godsend whatever…I just wonder as the models get hold of the pattern change, they might just inch west a touch, we will see…

Edit T850s at T144 now out, 16s just touching Kent:

Edited September 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144:

It is a question of how close this trough gets now, I think.  Could be wet and miserable, thundery or hot, depending.  Anyway, a change after this spell of anticyclonic gloom will be a godsend whatever…I just wonder as the models get hold of the pattern change, they might just inch west a touch, we will see…

Backtrack complete on this evenings 12z ukmo!!!compared to yesterday it has the heat and the high much further west!!!gfs 12z looking gorgeous so far!!

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Backtrack complete on this evenings 12z ukmo!!!compared to yesterday it has the heat and the high much further west!!!gfs 12z looking gorgeous so far!!

GFS T144:

High not as strong as UKMO, but low is shallower, result is more widespread warm air over the UK.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144:

It is a question of how close this trough gets now, I think.  Could be wet and miserable, thundery or hot, depending.  Anyway, a change after this spell of anticyclonic gloom will be a godsend whatever…I just wonder as the models get hold of the pattern change, they might just inch west a touch, we will see…

Edit T850s at T144 now out, 16s just touching Kent:

Got UKMO 156hrs here for you Mike...and GFS 12s looking pretty good...very warm here! 

Amazing cold pool again over Greenland 

Edited September 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

The GFS 12Z looks like being a right stonker! However, I must confess that my 'good feelings' about Summer 2021 went largely unrealised!

    

PS: Sod Greenland!

Edited September 1, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

28c Monday on the GFS

27c Tuesday

26c Wednesday 

warmth is widespread too, so loads can enjoy!

[Mike Poole]

GEM just dragging things a bit too far  east on this run, this about the eastern extent of what is on offer, in my opinion. T144:

[sheikhy]

Just to add arpege and icon bulldoze the low into the uk!considering they are run at higher reso you expect them to be correct.......HELL NO!!!both models i rate pretty badly!!!same for the ukv!!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

GEM just dragging things a bit too far  east on this run, this about the eastern extent of what is on offer, in my opinion. T144:

But again further west than what was shown on the 00z?!!hopefully ecm sticks to its guns this evening and looks like the gfs!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just to add arpege and icon bulldoze the low into the uk!considering they are run at higher reso you expect them to be correct.......HELL NO!!!both models i rate pretty badly!!!same for the ukv!!

I don't think there's a model out there you rate Shaky...must be absolute hell when you compile a forecast mate

Edited September 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful runs this evening ..

UKMO looks good....