model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

On the face of it you would think, wow what an amazing ECM 0z ensemble mean chart this is?…but actually it isn’t, it’s completely misleading!!…it’s a cloud fest this week for the majority!, I’ve been guilty of talking up this settled late august for some time and now it feels like I’ve been wasting my time and energy!…as I’ve said before, I can’t stand cloudy dull anticyclonic weather at any time of the year and I would welcome an early autumn Atlantic onslaught if we can’t have a sunny high!…I actually think we will see more Atlantic influence from next week, probably a typical NW / SE split with lower heights to the NW but probably some unsettled weather for all of us at times.

I think we all need to learn the lesson here. OK some of us expected some cloud, but not as much as this. My earliest memory that i can date in April 1974, that was around 4 weeks of this grey muck. We should all learn the lesson that high to our near Northwest feeding us a Northeasterly off that blessed sea will always have the potential to be a dirty high thatll plague not only the most prone eastern counties, but most of the Country.

[Penrith Snow]

I wouldn't like to be living on the East Coast this week at least here in Cumbria the sun comes out every now and then. Surely its unusual to have such cloudy conditions in a strong powerful summer anticyclone at least away from the east coast.

I am racking my brain thinking of a similar set up in the past?

Feel for those in SE England as this spell of winterlike anticyclonic gloom has finished off a dreadful summer, at least up north the summer was much better then average.

Andy

[Mike Poole]

55 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I think we all need to learn the lesson here. OK some of us expected some cloud, but not as much as this. My earliest memory that i can date in April 1974, that was around 4 weeks of this grey muck. We should all learn the lesson that high to our near Northwest feeding us a Northeasterly off that blessed sea will always have the potential to be a dirty high thatll plague not only the most prone eastern counties, but most of the Country.

Yes, I agree with this. I think some posters in the midlands and north of England have got this period of weather spot on, whereas the likes of me down in Oxfordshire have not.  I’ve been quite surprised at the amount of cloud cover here, and the relentlessness of it, it may be due to the exact position of the high, but usually at this time of year, it is rare to get relentless anticyclonic gloom here.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Mike Poole

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I agree with this. I think some posters in the midlands and north of England have got this period of weather spot on, whereas the likes of me down in Oxfordshire have not.  I’ve been quite surprised at the amount of cloud cover here, and the relentlessness of it, it may be due to the exact position of the high, but usually at this time of year, it is rare to get relentless anticyclonic gloom here.

The thing for me, is the way it failed to burn off. Normally many central areas brighten up in the afternoons. So this has been a lot worse than what i expected in its persistance and the way it thickens up making it really dull.

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The thing for me, is the way it failed to burn off. Normally many central areas brighten up in the afternoons. So this has been a lot worse than what i expected in its persistance and the way it thickens up making it really dull.

It has not been, on most days low ST but a sheet of Sc and at times Cu in the few brighter spells. So a different cloud set up to the usual N Sea low ST/mist/fog.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The thing for me, is the way it failed to burn off. Normally many central areas brighten up in the afternoons. So this has been a lot worse than what i expected in its persistance and the way it thickens up making it really dull.

Agreed, it did burn off a bit here at the start of the settled spell here, but lately not at all.  I can only think it was coming on the back of a really prolonged cool spell, and with the sun now 2 months beyond the solstice, doesn’t have enough in it.  Weird.  

Anyway, to the 12z suite, and the question still remains will the incoming low be deep enough to prevent ridging back over the top?  

So far, UKMO says probably yes, ICON says probably no at T144:

[Frosty.]

First of all, congratulations to Tyndrum in Scotland for recording the highest august temperature for the first time since 1931…27.2c 81f…I cannae believe it, time for a wee dram  

And…looking at the GEFS mean so far today, I think when it does become more unsettled / Atlantic influenced, it could be something of a N / S split with the south / southeast perhaps not doing too badly compared to northern / northwestern areas of the u k? 

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO at last brings Low pressure into the mix come early next week...how dominant will this become? I would imagine most areas will see some rain and showers moving through next week! Perhaps the driest conditions towards the SE.

But for me this at long last spells the end of that constant gloom associated with a nagging North Sea breeze,and it all becoming trapped within the High to the NW.

I've noticed Exter are now hinting at more settled and warmer final 3rd of the month! Come on guys,I posted about that possibility last night...so stop copying me

Seriously though..the 46 does hint at this outcome...

But for me even though conditions should become more unsettled,we should have a better shout at drier and sunnier moments,in-between systems! I'm sure many will take that.

Edited August 31, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It has not been, on most days low ST but a sheet of Sc and at times Cu in the few brighter spells. So a different cloud set up to the usual N Sea low ST/mist/fog.

but is that not due to time of year? a lot worse than March to May mist/fog

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, jon snow said:

First of all, congratulations to Tyndrum in Scotland for recording the highest august temperature for the first time since 1931…27.2c 81f…I cannae believe it, time for a wee dram  

I should have added that this temperature was reached on August 25th…NOT today!  

Anyway, wots this on the Gfs 12z op at T+144 hours…a bit of a PLUME?! 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another GFS 12Z shocker for the bin! all change on 00Z, low centered over us, rain and 10 degrees less

[Mike Poole]

Anyway, GEM sees a warmer pattern develop after the low, shallower on this run than UKMO, and could lead to some pleasant then interesting weather:

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Another GFS 12Z shocker for the bin! all change on 00Z, low centered over us, rain and 10 degrees less

The GFS 12Z is a ridiculous run that goes from one extreme to the other, extremely warm in just 144hrs to maxes of just 12/13C the following weekend under some horrific Synoptics. GEM extremely unsettled at the same time as the GFS burst of warmth with ICON somewhere in between. As usual given the hugely varying Synoptics I’ll go with my logic of in times of doubt back the unsettled pattern (it nearly always wins out) 

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 12Z is a ridiculous run that goes from one extreme to the other, extremely warm in just 144hrs to maxes of just 12/13C the following weekend under some horrific Synoptics. GEM extremely unsettled at the same time as the GFS burst of warmth with ICON somewhere in between. As usual given the hugely varying Synoptics I’ll go with my logic of in times of doubt back the unsettled pattern (it nearly always wins out) 

I thought you might   Think it all depends on whether the ridge goes over the top of the low T144ish and stops it becoming a procession of lows.  I think it will, but UKMO run was poor tonight from that perspective.  GEM and GFS and ICON better, but different in their own ways, so plenty of uncertainty.  

Edited August 31, 2021 by Mike Poole

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

It has not been, on most days low ST but a sheet of Sc and at times Cu in the few brighter spells. So a different cloud set up to the usual N Sea low ST/mist/fog.

......... which makes it all the more rather strange, and probably why it caught so many of us out. tbh i dont understand how this happened (i understand how low stratus rolls in ) , pressure has been high, and without the sun warming and creating convection, im dont understand how Cu and Sc formed under high pressure.

[Bradley in Kent]

Of course we are in hurricane season now which can throw big spanners into the works especially if they unexpectedly meander northwards and jump on the jetstream.

September 2014 comes to mind after a ropey August, where an ex-tropucal system went north of us and pulled up warm air setting a pattern well into the Autumn. This is the time of year I look towards the Mid-atlantic, although I personally never wish for big storms to form and hit land. It would be extremely ignorant and selfish to wish that for 'a bit of early Autumn warmth!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC looks wrong for Sunday? Atlantic nowhere near us,

[sheikhy]

Massive changes on gfs and ecm at a short time frame this evening!!heatwave alert?!!!!

[sheikhy]

Where on earth has that gfs and ecm come from!!im surprised no one else commenting on this!!its a HUUUUGE change from this mornings runs!!!have they picked up a new signal?!!madness!

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Massive changes on gfs and ecm at a short time frame this evening!!heatwave alert?!!!!

Yes, the low that the UKMO made so much of, is weaker and further out west, and just becomes a heat pump for the UK.  The gloom spell is over, but what comes next is very uncertain!

[Frosty.]

For sure there’s some warmth on the ECM 12z operational…for sure! 

[Man With Beard]

Hi all, I'd noted the ensembles for next week have been far better than recent op runs but I wasn't expecting this to suddenly appear for next Tuesday

[StingJet]

Come on Matt .. awaiting your "it aint over til the fat lady sings" quote ... ECM 12z Op is a stunner from all aspects,  Phil Avery on the Beeb weekly update was hinting at something along the lines of ECM 12z Op 2-3 hrs ago ,  got to love PA .. one of the best.

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by StingJet

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Phil Avery on the Beeb weekly update was hinting at something along the lines of ECM 12z Op 2-3 hrs ago ,  got to love PA .. one of the best.

 

If he said a plume..could be ours…he could be right!…judging by the Gfs 12z op and ECM 12z.. 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm the ecm mean kinda supports the op as well!!!