model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Scorcher]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’m more inclined to believe it’ll go down the more unsettled route.

Why doesn't that surprise me?

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Why doesn't that surprise me?

Yes - I may be a pessimist….but I’m just going with the ecm and ukmo op runs as well as the met office long ranger (below) that aren’t convinced by the big rebuild in high pressure. Next few days will hopefully iron this out!
 

‘Over the weekend, as the high pressure begins to break down, outbreaks of rain may start to spread to some southern and western areas, with mostly dry weather continuing elsewhere. Into the following week, unsettled weather continues to push eastwards, bringing showers or longer spells of rain across many parts of the UK. Northern and eastern areas remaining settled for the longest.’

[damianslaw]

Noticing the early build of cold uppers over Greenland, which suggests a deep longwave trough feature should develop in this region, and low heights, how these interact with the remants of the current high is the question, either the trough will shoot NW and glance NW regions, or it will take a dive SE through the UK aided by lowering heights to the NE. I can see logic in the ECM evolution, and would fit in with La Nina base state with heights advecting back west into mid atlantic. It may then quickly topple in again  behind with the ominpresent shallow trough feature to the south.. a pattern we have seen many times this year. 

[Frosty.]

The models are showing high pressure domination for most of this week but there’s too much cloud associated with it, what a waste of great looking charts…I’m not a fan of cloudy anticyclonic weather and if we can’t have a sunny high I hope the ECM 12z op is right about heralding a change to autumnal!…to be honest I don’t really care now summers over!!!!!  ? ️  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hi gang...hope you've had a good one,considering all the gloom,it would have probably been difficult.

More of the same this week,but sunnier moments remain possible in some favoured locations. Tonight's EC46 brings a change to more unsettled conditions as we go through next week,and this pattern persists through to mid month. Could be quite windy at times,with showers and possibly longer periods of rain developing...these more prominent towards the W/NW.

There is now an emerging signal for conditions to settle down again just after mid month...with High pressure gaining strength from the South...so basically we could be potentially getting another rather warm and settled spell as we approach the Equinox part of summers end!

So to summarise....its not all bad for the month on a whole.

[Downburst]

Monday 6 to 13. Precipitation 10  to 30 above average

following week nearer average 

Rest of month average, but by 27th indications of this 500 anomaly 

 

and sea level pressure anomaly

 

 

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Monday 6 to 13. Precipitation 10  to 30 above average

following week nearer average 

Rest of month average, but by 27th indications of this 500 anomaly 

 

and sea level pressure anomaly

 

 

A fairly standard September could be in the offing there.. a quiet dry start, more unsettled into second week and through mid month then a more traditional westerly flow to end the month, perhaps some late warmth brought on by SW flow.

[Kentspur]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z GFS looks iffy and too good to be true, Sunday decent and dry here, Atlantic held back, my guess it's wrong

Hope its right my day off im taking my friend to Wembley for our first England match its her birthday pressie.

[Frosty.]

Praise the lord!!! the Gfs 0z op rids us of the rancid anticyclonic gloom during the weekend and thereafter it gradually becomes more unsettled with autumn gales towards mid month..hallelujah!!!!! ? …reverse psychology?..nah mate, I cannae stand anticyclonic gloom…bring on the atlantic!….of course, the Gfs could be wrong..jeez, I never thought of that!  

 

[mb018538]

No GFS high pressure fest this morning...just a succession of low pressure, including what is currently a monster easterly wave just leaving Africa. NHC already give this a 90% chance of becoming a storm at this early stage, and the GFS agrees and blows it up as such, before it heads our way in a couple of weeks:

[sheikhy]

Much more unsettled from 144 hours onwards but again doesnt look like a washout either!!positive will be we get rid of the last 10 days of easterly muck for much of england!!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Much more unsettled from 144 hours onwards but again doesnt look like a washout either!!positive will be we get rid of the last 10 days of easterly muck for much of england!!

Hurrah! Doesn't look all that bad as you say....and at least with westerlies returning, most of us won't be suffering this endless gloom that we have now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Hope its right my day off im taking my friend to Wembley for our first England match its her birthday pressie.

corrected on 00Z, wet Sunday, 12Z lost the plot yesterday

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

corrected on 00Z, wet Sunday, 12Z lost the plot yesterday

I'm hoping that clear gap in the SE remains as long as possible haha. This the latest GFS 0z precip for Sunday 2pm

[mushymanrob]

Sorry, but the NOAA 500mb mean charts do not support high pressure returning next week and beyond after the weekends low. These charts have a regular transition to low pressure domination. So becoming more unsettled after Saturday, as the mean pressure drops and we pick up a moderate westerly sourced airflow.

[Guest]

Goodness me what a disaster. We go from weeks of endless muck to a full on Atlantic assault on the GFS this morning, this backs up where the UKMO and ECM were going last night. Given how cold April was and the terrible May certainly the worst warm period (April-Sept) I can ever remember. Still I’m sure some will attempt to start polishing this up. 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles are a right old scatter-fest!

    

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

No GFS high pressure fest this morning...just a succession of low pressure, including what is currently a monster easterly wave just leaving Africa. NHC already give this a 90% chance of becoming a storm at this early stage, and the GFS agrees and blows it up as such, before it heads our way in a couple of weeks:

Yes!

Was looking for the remnants of Ida when this fellow appeared - banked to watch..... 

[Iceaxecrampon]

27 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes!

Was looking for the remnants of Ida when this fellow appeared - banked to watch..... 

Ooops! I meant lass...

[Downburst]

This tropical storm looks very neat and tidy on a chart that's for sure, considering what they actually do. ECM for Friday next week, Iceland has it's own storm that's not to be sniffed at, especially the temperature isn't balmy up there. couple of years back now Storm Ophelia which although it killed 4 people in Ireland (Such heavy rain and trees in leaf) unfortunately, I noted the main difference to proper North Atlantic storm was, the lack of gusting, more a steady strong wind and the mild temperature. I also remember "Hurricane" Charlie when it hit August 1986's as ex Hurricane. That was serious rain and wind for 24 hours. The highest total was 280mm over 24 hrs Kippure Dublin mountains, this storm killed 6 people. 

The probability from ECM also for the week following. BTW, they do have a chart showing yearly analysis of Day 3 and Day 5 accuracy for Tropical Storm forecasting over distance from actual center, pressure etc. 

 

[Britneyfan]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Goodness me what a disaster. We go from weeks of endless muck to a full on Atlantic assault on the GFS this morning, this backs up where the UKMO and ECM were going last night. Given how cold April was and the terrible May certainly the worst warm period (April-Sept) I can ever remember. Still I’m sure some will attempt to start polishing this up. 

Good about time we had some raging westerlies 

[Cableguy]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Goodness me what a disaster. We go from weeks of endless muck to a full on Atlantic assault on the GFS this morning, this backs up where the UKMO and ECM were going last night. Given how cold April was and the terrible May certainly the worst warm period (April-Sept) I can ever remember. Still I’m sure some will attempt to start polishing this up. 

No way of polishing this years summer up, its been awful.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Good about time we had some raging westerlies 

Apart from typically it’s timed to ruin my golf weekend. 

[Frosty.]

On the face of it you would think, wow what an amazing ECM 0z ensemble mean chart this is?…but actually it isn’t, it’s completely misleading!!…it’s a cloud fest this week for the majority!, I’ve been guilty of talking up this settled late august for some time and now it feels like I’ve been wasting my time and energy!…as I’ve said before, I can’t stand cloudy dull anticyclonic weather at any time of the year and I would welcome an early autumn Atlantic onslaught if we can’t have a sunny high!…I actually think we will see more Atlantic influence from next week, probably a typical NW / SE split with lower heights to the NW but probably some unsettled weather for all of us at times.

[Methuselah]

Okay then, the good news, from the GFS 06Z operational run, is that come Sunday, the current spell of manky weather should be behind us? After that? Who knows!