model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, and the theme is for retrogression of the high, which has been likely for some time:

But those confident of longer term predictions, beware….it is pinball time and this silver ball in the Atlantic could could hit the bumpers, send the models all over the place…I love the additional uncertainty that these tropical storms can introduce to the Atlantic sector at this time of year.  

Effect is to counteract the retrogression by T240 on this run:

Edited August 23, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Comparing like for like, this evenings ECM 12z operational day 10 looks better than 24 little hours ago..so that’s an upgrade then!

 

 

[johnholmes]

On 18/08/2021 at 15:13, mushymanrob said:

the synoptic charts from the ecm and gfs are at the 500mb too .... so if we can read those and apply surface conditions, why are these any different? (apart from being the mean)

Not only for us mushy, but also the models, much as a human forecaster, does not always show the correct pattern at the surface. 

[Frosty.]

Just taking a day 10 snapshot of the GEFS 12z mean, it looks pretty decent to me if fine warm weather is your preference?! ...indeed the mean doesn’t change much at all through early September! ️ 

Edited August 23, 2021 by jon snow

[stodge]

55 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, and the theme is for retrogression of the high, which has been likely for some time:

But those confident of longer term predictions, beware….it is pinball time and this silver ball in the Atlantic could could hit the bumpers, send the models all over the place…I love the additional uncertainty that these tropical storms can introduce to the Atlantic sector at this time of year.  

Effect is to counteract the retrogression by T240 on this run:

Getting true retrogression is difficult enough any time of year, whether summer or winter. It's not just getting the heights in the right place - you also need the trough to drop nicely over Scandinavia to bring the N'ly down over the British Isles. Note the small LP over the Norwegian Sea which would extend SSW towards the North Sea as the HP retreated NW.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

While there are areas of uncertainty either side of the high pressure, it is not looking likely it could migrate much to our east, is it?  

[Frosty.]

To be honest, there’s not much difference between the GEFS / ECM 12z mean at day 10, they are both ridgy rather than troughy? ...suits me sir!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

EC46 update perhaps a tad more positive than last weeks...plenty of High pressure conditions for much of the time. The Bank Holiday is looking fine!! Now that's a start...Possibly remaining settled through until the 2nd week of September...then we have the first signs of things gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW...so with a bit of luck,a good couple weeks of settled conditions.

[damianslaw]

22 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

EC46 update perhaps a tad more positive than last weeks...plenty of High pressure conditions for much of the time. The Bank Holiday is looking fine!! Now that's a start...Possibly remaining settled through until the 2nd week of September...then we have the first signs of things gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW...so with a bit of luck,a good couple weeks of settled conditions.

Very normal for early September. Many many a year it is dry and settled. Indeed more likely to be settled than unsettled.

[Frosty.]

Just a quick look at the Gfs 0z operational. it’s high pressure dominated, there’s barely a trace of rain during the next two and a half weeks across the majority of the u k, temperatures are variable but for the most part nudging into the low 20’s c, yes there are some much cooler days but that’s associated with the wind direction and cloud cover which would bring some big regional variations as the orientation and position of the anticyclone / ridging undergoes many changes..but essentially, it’s a decent end to summer / start to autumn. ️ 

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the GEFS 0z mean, I honestly can’t see anything other than a very prolonged generally settled outlook lasting even towards mid September, at least further s / se?...broad brushstrokes of course!  

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational is, yep you guessed it...anticyclonic! ..and the uppers (850’s) for the most part look good despite some cooler intrusions further s / se but honestly, I would say unless you’re unlucky enough to be stuck under persistent cloud cover, the surface conditions would be pleasant enough, especially when it’s sunny!   ️  

 

[sheikhy]

 Wow the forecast over the next 2 weeks is as dry as it can get possibly get!!!!high pressure in total control!!!just in time for the new school year as well!!i remember back in the 90s as soon as september hit and the new school year started we would get plenty of rain and wind!seems to be different in the last 10 years or so which i prefer lol!

[Captain Shortwave]

Variable cloud, some sunny spells and temperatures probably close to normal sum up the next ten days. Winds looks to be between the north and east for the majority so feeling summery in the west, however the models don’t suggest solid cloud cover in the east, though large amounts will drift through from time to time.

Given the rather eventful summer at times, I must admit that such a mundane pattern was not what I expected. It would be nice to have higher temperatures, but still I guess we will get a decent bank holiday weekend out of this pattern.

      
 

The ridge remains just west of the U.K. but always close enough to keep most dry, apart from a few spots of rain or maybe a shower or two.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Variable cloud, some sunny spells and temperatures probably close to normal sum up the next ten days. Winds looks to be between the north and east for the majority so feeling summery in the west, however the models don’t suggest solid cloud cover in the east, though large amounts will drift through from time to time.

Given the rather eventful summer at times, I must admit that such a mundane pattern was not what I expected. It would be nice to have higher temperatures, but still I guess we will get a decent bank holiday weekend out of this pattern.

      
 

The ridge remains just west of the U.K. but always close enough to keep most dry, apart from a few spots of rain or maybe a shower or two.

Mundane sums it up pretty well. A boring finish to a boring summer, with August not even recording anything over 27c. Snooze.

Lets hope for everyone’s sanity that autumn and winter are a bit more exciting!

[Downburst]

ECM next weeks mean weekly anomaly. No surprise there

 

Precipitation

Temperature (with White being the 20 year average)

And the month ahead Atlantic Euro Weather Regimes?

 

Classic Block, followed by move into Atlantic Ridge. Note signs (way of to end of month) for blocking to form, so perhaps a good end to September and into early October. What is notable is only 8 days of +NAO for the month ahead, which is below the climate norm even for this month. I could look post MJO, but I don't want to spout all sorts of nonsense other than to say it's too low orbit to spout anything. 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean is, yep you’ve guessed it..anticyclonic! ...this could be a long predominantly or completely settled spell well into September! ️  

[sheikhy]

All sorts of little tropical storms being produced in the atlantic on gfs 06z!oh boy we got a crazy period of modelling coming up potentially!!!just when things looked certain to be dry till mid september!!

[Downburst]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

All sorts of little tropical storms being produced in the atlantic on gfs 06z!oh boy we got a crazy period of modelling coming up potentially!!!just when things looked certain to be dry till mid september!!

Yep I saw that. On its way here too, but blocked of course by a meddling extension of the Azores high, otherwise it would have got away with it as so often happened in Scooby Doo to the villain, the more things change the more they stay the same. Here is ECM take on it as a probability. I believe the GFS overdoes it compared to ECM on the operationals. But still more physics to consider.

[Frosty.]

I was surprised to see the unsettled weather on the Gfs 6z operational during early September but then I looked at the GEFS 6z and there is certainly support for it...perhaps the mid / longer term outlook won’t be as sublime as I thought it would be?...having said that, the 6z op did recover again towards the end...........when is anything ever straight forward in the u k?..answer..NEVER...of course, it could still be settled!  

 

Edited August 24, 2021 by jon snow

[mushymanrob]

this is pretty dreadful, and worse than even i expected, but what do we expect when high pressure is to our near northwest?.... it must be just about the most predictable "bad weather" pattern..

Edited August 24, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Methuselah]

But if it's any consolation, peeps, the 06Z operational run is dredging the filth: 

    

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z looks anticyclonic and eventually the position of the high becomes much better, centred slap bang over the u k, the SE loses that nagging NE’ly breeze and the uppers (850’s) improve significantly!  

 

Edited August 24, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z @T+144 is perfect -- for January!   

[sheikhy]

Looks like the the gfs 06z had a retarded moment!!!!back to reality on the 12z with a very strong high and much drier look up to 204 hours so far!!