model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

You will have to explain the mechanism that gives you, if you live in Stafford, mist at this time of year from such a synoptic.  Because I have NO IDEA why that should happen?  

From what I understand Mike, sea mist from the east coast is more of a spring / early summer feature when the North Sea SST’s are darn cold whereas in late aug / early sept Shirley they would be at their warmest and I don’t think North Sea filth is as likely? ...I may be completely wrong though as I’m not an expert in such matters!  

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

From what I understand Mike, sea mist from the east coast is more of a spring / early summer feature when the North Sea SST’s are darn cold whereas in late aug / early sept Shirley they would be at their warmest and I don’t think North Sea filth is as likely? ...I may be completely wrong though as I’m not an expert in such matters!  

Exactly, Karl…thanks…I can’t see why it would be an issue in Staffordshire in late summer!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, jon snow said:

From what I understand Mike, sea mist from the east coast is more of a spring / early summer feature when the North Sea SST’s are darn cold whereas in late aug / early sept Shirley they would be at their warmest and I don’t think North Sea filth is as likely? ...I may be completely wrong though as I’m not an expert in such matters!  

bbc fully on board with the filth this Tuesday and Wed on video forecast,

[Methuselah]

I must say, the GFS 12Z is nae bad!

    

    

    

The only thing that looks 'autumnal' is the date!

[Singularity]

I keep expecting to see the cool air adjusted to the southeast of the UK for Fri-Sat but as we’re not in winter it appears a perfect easterly alignment is on the cards .

It might, at least, bring dry enough air that cloud cover is limited away from eastern coasts. In the west it really could be a glorious last hurrah for the meteorological summer.

[Scorcher]

The models certainly seem to have dropped any prospect of retrogression today- which is certainly great news for those of us who want some warmth while we can still get it.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates anticyclonic conditions could persist for some considerable time once firmly established in a few days time, there is a hint of retrogression during early September but as I say, it’s only a hint and the more likely outcome would be further Azores high / ridge incursions during the early days of autumn?..just my opinion, maybe others agree???!!! ...and I even found a plume! ⛈   ?  ..yep I’m nuts!
 
 

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational has an anticyclonic vibe about it... ...and don’t believe anyone who says there’s no warmth! ....just don’t mention day 10...I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it!  

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jon, it depends on location, those last 2 charts (fri and Sat) look vile here, cold, windy and misty/grey

Mate if I had a quid for everytime someone posts a chart,and you say it looks cold grey and windy here I would be loaded..you must live on an oil rig in the middle of the North Sea  

It looks like more prone NE/E/SE areas that could be troubled with gloom and cooler temps at times,many other places looking pretty good..UKMO at day 7? High pressure in control.

Ps..dont be trusting BBC video forecasts..

Edited August 22, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Ok, since y’all asked me nicely, I will mention the ECM 12z day 10!!!...there’s some retrogression going on which in English means our high is drifting further west by northwest away from the u k allowing colder air from the arctic to flood down its eastern flank...now it’s not as dramatic as it sounds because we are talking about September 1 but it might cause a flutter of interest to any coldies waking up from hibernation 2 months early!  

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T192, and it is actually fairly close to that area where the high pressure might be centered that I drew after the GFS:

To T240 then:

Disappointing that it is centered west here, and the spread has the uncertainty a bit too close for comfort for a high pressure situation.  Most of the country should be fine however.  

[Methuselah]

Another day, another post, another GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

An unpleasant though brief retrogression for which, this time, there some ensembles support? Who knows! GEFS ensembles:

    

[Singularity]

Some steep temperature gradients being modelled as the ‘cool pool’ moves through.

After my comment yesterday it has now shifted slightly southeast - classic! Also the lowest 850s have raised by a degree or two.

Now looking possible that while the southeast sees a fresh breeze and low 20s at best (lower by coast), areas as close as The Midlands could still be enjoying mid-20s maximums widely through Fri-Sat.

A loose continuation of this summer’s ‘upside down’ theme - but at least it’s generally dry now!

[SLEETY]

Nice looking  charts if it was early January  .Pointless this time of year,at  least dryer than it has been for weeks!

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

You will have to explain the mechanism that gives you, if you live in Stafford, mist at this time of year from such a synoptic.  Because I have NO IDEA why that should happen?  

Well i live in Derby, NorthEast of Stafford, and ive never witnessed "sea mist" off the North or any other sea.

But we are very prone to low grey blankets of cloud when the breeze is Northeasterly. We "lost" a whole weekend in July 2013 to that, cool grey muck. So when i see a possible N'easterly then thats a red flag to me . And is why i was never on board with the warmers runs although there was a couple of occassions i was tempted because the anomalies have consistently suggested the high will be just West of North. 

[Methuselah]

Play it again, Sam; the best (for the E and SE) is always last! Thank God for the fact that the Ten-Day Torch is about to be handed over to the snow-loons!

    

    

    

    

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

Wot, no posts! Has everyone gone down with sunstroke? Cool snap gaining credence? GEFS 06Z enembles:

    

[Tamara]

On 23/08/2021 at 09:30, Alderc said:

Day 1 one the sunny high pressure week begins under a cloud of thick low cloud. ECM looking extremely poor all week across the south and south east with cloud and low temps persisting. Still it’s Nae bad

 

Summer gloriously sizzles on in my new homeland    Snapshot for the week ahead (and todays recently taken reading after 2pm) are quite typical of the summer, more especially this second half.

 

The first half of the summer was technically by SW European standards 'below average' when I left the UK in very early June. The few coolest/lowest maximum values were about 22C to 25C when the dominant Atlantic ridge/NW European trough dug the 'coolest' upper air this far south . But as an absolute minimum, so to speak, this provided what would be constituted as very pleasantly warm English summer days.

Since the approach of mid summer it has been much more typically 'Mediterranean' with max values in a range between about 27C/ 28C as a lowest and 37C/ 38C as the hottest maximum so far (locally) though into the low 40sC  the further south and east into the Alentejo region. Velvet evenings and nights between 19C and 22C around midnight and briefly dipping to 16C to 18C around dawn (6am now towards 7am) There is definitely the Atlantic influence in this region which moderates the heat under the prevailing NW wind-flow - and that in turn also moderates the stifling overnight temperatures seen closer to and over the Spanish border.

September, as previously suggested, based on the wider -ve inertia tropical>extra tropical wind-flow patterns, intuitively would point to the prompted return of the Atlantic ridge after this anticyclone sitting just to the N/NW of the UK(cloud or no cloud!).As a benchmark for future prospects, the GWO, subject to 2 day lag and mired in low amplitude circa Phase 2, reflects the relative total angular momentum below average and underpins the latest witnessed difficulty in getting a ridge established at the expense of a weak trough as the UK saw, again, just this weekend.

.

There is some assist from sun activity just awakened (within low activity phase in general) to promote anticyclonic rossby wave breaking, but still not the momentum looking ahead as summarised previously, to sustain a ridge sitting just to the east of the UK.  However, there is a chance that the Atlantic ridge takes on more of an eastward extension with less trough influence than during the earlier summer dominance that supports a lot of generally fine, if not especially very warm/hot weather. Aside from sun activity, its also interesting watching the brand new polar vortex establishing in this respect which might help scupper greater amplification towards Greenland and so with cool air advection better restricted- especially though as intra seasonal high frequency tropical convection likely favours a return of activity from the Maritimes into the Western Pacific after the first week to 10 days of September.

 Boa sorte para todos vocês no Reino Unido

 

 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It looks to me that its turned out nicer today than many on here thought...and Stafford looks grand

2nd day here of largely blue skies,we are around 22c currently,and tbh its sublime. Parts of Ireland are close to 25c...very nice.

You know what guys...I can tell its been a poor summer around here,due to the ice cream van man not coming round!! Guess what...he's been around twice today....he must have one hell of a load off flake 99s to get rid off

At long last something  to cheer about! And it looks fab for the rest of the week in many areas away from that North Sea murk making  machine.

Gfs control looks a peach.

Enjoy if you can.

Ohh and to finish on a lighter note...the sun newspaper puts this warm spell down to a 700 mile warm blob in the Atlantic!! That's a really scientific summary I must say! Had to  

Edited August 23, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You lot West and Northwest should be happy with the UKMO this evening...plenty of sun and warm temps with it. Just a little concern for more E/SE parts regarding a cooler flow and problematic cloud amounts as that High pulls more to the NW...apart from that some good late summer conditions to enjoy.

Edited August 23, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not very often we see a plume of very warm air being pulled up the Western side of the UK...GEM looks pretty solid for these locations.

Look away now you Londonders

You seem to have developed your own little....not macro climate..but Arctic climate

Edited August 23, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 degrees a little optimistic I think on GFS 12Z, can clearly see the 'mist channel' with north and south of this location escaping as normal

[Mapantz]

Can we stick to model discussion please?

This thread isn't for general weather discussion, and currently not for Winter discussion, either.

Thanks.

[damianslaw]

Not much weather to talk about this week. All very pleasant. Often see a settled spell early September. A little earlier this year..

Case of chasing cloud cover. A blocked set up. Core of the high going nowhere fast, generally over west Scotland. Light NE/E drift, warmest temps reserved for the north and west initially. Cooler mid week on. High teens, low 20s.. excellent weather for outdoor activities. Those in the north west can't fault it.

It's been a year with anomalous heights to the NW favouring the north and west more than the SE. Not unusual in a la Nina state which is often associated with heights to the west and a northerly or easterly drift to eastern parts. Also lost count number of times shallow trough, low pressure systems have been pulled further south underneath heights to the north. Giving southern parts rain, and the north settled.

[stodge]

Evening all

Yes, a chilly NE'ly already present here in east London but it's a fine and glorious evening.

It may not be full-fledged retrogression but with HP sitting to the north or north-west for a few days a steady ENE for most parts so, as they used to say, "go west" if you want the best of the weather but still decent further south and east.

As to the longer term, as you might expect, the tendency is for the HP to slip back south or south west.

No sign on GFS at any rate of any ex-hurricanes to bring some energy forward - GEM suggests otherwise.