model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

Just found this on the Gfs 0z op! ...where are all the coldies at?...where are you?...let’s be having you!

 

 

[Liam Burge]

Looks like here in Somerset we have a good chance of seeing some thunderstorms later on today.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

.   Rather less chance of the high drifting east and settling up any southerly / plume chances I think now, that ship has sailed for the time being.  

 

 

Funny you should say that Mike, as the latest 8-14 day chart has shifted the axis of the high east of the Meridian. Now its only one run, and this has been hinted at before only to fail to develop further. But IF this development is supported over the next few days then a plume or possibly something longer is on the cards after next weekend.
This is certainly something to keep an eye on, after all, the Anomaly charts got this weeks high just about bang on! so who knows, maybe a warm/hot start to September/Autumn is on the cards..

[Methuselah]

Meanwhile, the GFS 00Z has high pressure largely dominating the UK's weather for the foreseeable:

    

    

    

However, for as to where HP's going to be, on a day to day basis -- who knows?

    

[northwestsnow]

00z runs = High pressure .

Surface conditions sensitive to location.

 

[Methuselah]

Out to T+120, and the GFS 06Z is looking good. But, as @northwestsnow rightly points out, minor positional changes in the HP might cause major changes in weather type. Especially for the East and SE?

    

Edited August 21, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Out to T+120, and the GFS 06Z is looking good. But, as @northwestsnow rightly points out, minor positional changes in the HP might cause major changes in weather type. Especially for the East and SE?

    

What - you mean like we’ve been saying for the last week?

 

UKV starting to show this - some areas could really struggle if the muck off the North Sea sticks around. Mid teens. 21-23c where it is brighter.

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS both try retrogress the high towards day 10 albeit with different results. GEM holds steady.

[Allseasons-Si]

On 21/08/2021 at 07:21, jon snow said:

Just found this on the Gfs 0z op! ...where are all the coldies at?...where are you?...let’s be having you!

 

 

Same on the 06z run too Karl

i hope it's an outlier,...we will find out soon as the ens don't go out that far yet.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Same on the 06z run too Karl

i hope it's an outlier,...we will find out soon as the ens don't go out that far yet.

It's an outlier mate,the GFS op usually always is  

So better conditions for next week...but don't get me started on surface conditions! There's no way I'm coming on here to start nitpicking at that It will be what it will be.

And it looks like a trend to slowly but surely turn us less settled as we move into the new month! That's been flagged up recently from the EC46...so its not without support.

Edited August 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

The cold plunge on the Gfs 0z and in particular 6z op certainly piqued my interest, I hope we see plenty of charts like these during the winter ahead...inside the reliable timeframe!  

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks like Winter begins on the first day of ermmm Autumnn 

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The cold plunge on the Gfs 0z and in particular 6z op certainly piqued my interest, I hope we see plenty of charts like these during the winter ahead...inside the reliable timeframe!  

Just so long as it stays away until it might be useful. I don't relish the idea of cold, showery rain just yet!

And, now back to today's GFS 06Z:

    

    

    

But, if we do get invaded by Cack From The North, I hope it'll be as transient as the run suggests.

Although a cold plunge has little support from the ensembles, the threat cannot be ignored. GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

 

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

The cold plunge on the Gfs 0z and in particular 6z op certainly piqued my interest, I hope we see plenty of charts like these during the winter ahead...inside the reliable timeframe!  

no thank you, we want that to be pushed back until november at least, for now we want the reds 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1st out the blocks is me followed by the icon.

Not bad,the settled theme is there...perhaps areas further NW getting the warmest conditions...so get yourself some Blackpool rock...

Positive met update for the Bank Holiday..perhaps more widely warmer,before hints of a breakdown towards end of week 1...heres hoping for some very late summer conditions up until that point folks.

Edited August 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

And here's the GFS 12Z's take for T+120: how much North Sea cloud will there be, where will it be, and how long will it take to burn off? Is there a front in the North Sea?

    

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs ops have scored a hat trick of arctic plunges today! ...hopefully it can save some for winter too!  

Edited August 21, 2021 by jon snow

[Climate Man]

2 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

no thank you, we want that to be pushed back until november at least, for now we want the reds 

That's what he meant 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs ops have scored a hat trick of arctic plunges today! ...hopefully it can save some for winter too!  

Hopefully mate,more of that come November..

Nice UKMO,especially away from Eastern areas..I would say W/NW is gonna be just grand...

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean still looks decent even into early September!..for sure, this isn’t a classic anticyclonic spell on the way, but I think anything is better than a trough dominated end to summer! anyone agree? ️  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The forum is dead...wots a going on! looks like I'm gonna have to dust of the cobwebs and hit the tiles..

All I can say is...these charts will bring the place down if they start cropping up in a few months time...just look at the NH profile....wowzers 

Have a fab evening.

[Mark wheeler]

Absolutely loving the Navgem this evening .

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, the longer term outlook from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean looks generally settled / quiet to the end of the meteorological summer and judging by T+240 hours, into early autumn / September too?! ️

 

[summer blizzard]

Tonight’s models take a step back towards shortening the pressure build and retrogression.

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Tonight’s models take a step back towards shortening the pressure build and retrogression.

I will be surprised if this happens- a long way off and the anomalies are not supporting this at the moment.