model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

In my unbiased opinion.. ...these ECM 12z op charts are...  nae bad!

 

[Methuselah]

But at least the operational, control, mean all stay above 5C?

    

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

In my unbiased opinion.. ...these ECM 12z op charts are...  nae bad!

 

One of the things that has interested me during the whole summer, and you can see it on the ECM as you have posted, Karl, is that there is no high latitude cap on heights, high heights at high latitudes have always been possible, it looks unusual for me for summer, and maybe why the normal Azores ridging has sometimes gone wrong for the UK, usually it is towards mid latitude blocking.  I’m thinking back to winter when the vortex never got going, and I’m wondering if some lagging effects of that are still relevant even in summer…and I’m also wondering about implications of that for the coming winter.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One of the things that has interested me during the whole summer, and you can see it on the ECM as you have posted, Karl, is that there is no high latitude cap on heights, high heights at high latitudes have always been possible, it looks unusual for me for summer, and maybe why the normal Azores ridging has sometimes gone wrong for the UK, usually it is towards mid latitude blocking.  I’m thinking back to winter when the vortex never got going, and I’m wondering if some lagging effects of that are still relevant even in summer…and I’m also wondering about implications of that for the coming winter.  

Good points Mike,could we still be suffering from the vortex being knocked off its perch all Winter,regarding our Summer conditions! Not directly right now due to the vortex long being broken down....but perhaps changes made towards the jet profile and oceans! And this weak jet seems to go on and on...whatever happened to complete zonal conditions!

Could be a good early sign,baring in mind a weak Jet will lead to a weak Vortex and perhaps break it down completely! 

[Frosty.]

The perception may be that I’ve been a bit of a negative nelly today but that’s only because I have / had such very high hopes for the final third of august but that’s been somewhat dented by the more diluted mean charts today due to an increase in changeable / unsettled / cooler members?..BUT...this still doesn’t preclude a very good end to summer!
 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not done and dusted by any means. The op was a little optimistic shall we say...the mean holds pretty firm,but is a little down on recent days,and there is also support for a less settled outlook on the ens...alot to be resolved over the next few days...uncertainty the BIG WORD!

Edited August 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

35 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Good points Mike,could we still be suffering from the vortex being knocked off its perch all Winter,regarding our Summer conditions! Not directly right now due to the vortex long being broken down....but perhaps changes made towards the jet profile and oceans! And this weak jet seems to go on and on...whatever happened to complete zonal conditions!

Could be a good early sign,baring in mind a weak Jet will lead to a weak Vortex and perhaps break it down completely! 

In my opinion Matt, we have not had better signals for a decent winter since 2010.  But we know in this time of warming, everything has to be in place.  So as of now, what do we have:

• Solar minimum, just past it now, but that has been correlated with cold winters previously.
• East QBO - after two letdowns in recent years, looks like holding this year.
• Hangover from last winter, not much science to back this up, but it does look to me like an increased likelihood of high latitude blocking has persisted through summer, after last winters failed vortex (which admittedly could have benefitted us in the UK much more than it did in terms of cold conditions).  
• SSTs in the Atlantic, tripole shown 3 times since May, it should resurface in winter.

And that is before we get into the stuff during Autumn, the snow advance index, the Barents and Kara seas, the Taymyr region and all that.  

Just hope something off piste doesn’t cause it all to crash and burn like the Indian Ocean Dipole a couple of years ago.

The deck is stacked in our favour so far for winter.  Fingers crossed.  

Edited August 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

53 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not done and dusted by any means. The op was a little optimistic shall we say...the mean holds pretty firm,but is a little down on recent days,and there is also support for a less settled outlook on the ens...alot to be resolved over the next few days...uncertainty the BIG WORD!

ECM spread tells the story, T168:

Little uncertainty over the UK, but T240, and the model ensembles have seemingly lost the plot:

This just reflects the genuine uncertainty that exists post day 5 or 6.  

 

[StingJet]

9 hours ago, kold weather said:

One more thing to throw into the mix is the development of Tropical storm Henri. Broadly the models haven't done a great job forecasting its southward extent and so Henri has managed to get into slightly warmer waters than some of the early cycles expected and therefore is stronger than predicted by quite a few of them already.

Its worth noting that out of all the models on the 00z suite, the GFS has got one of the better grasps it appears on the background conditions. As per normal in recent years ECM has been nearing rubbish status with clocking TC development. Henri has a pretty good chance of becoming a hurricane Fri-Sun based on the current set-up predicted by the models that have more accurately got the set-up right so far.

All this means I'd probably err closer to what the GFS is suggesting at this point as its likely handling the tropical injection coming early next week much better than the other models which broadly show only a very weak system (barely a TS) being absorbed and obviously the energy difference of a hurricane vs a weak TS is rather large!

 

Roger that kw    there's the upgrade

Edited August 17, 2021 by StingJet

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational looks quite anticyclonic and pleasant in early September!  

Edited August 18, 2021 by jon snow

[bluearmy]

How do we break the cycle of meandering upper troughs getting through the weak ridging and making a beeline for nw Europe ? 
 

of course we may not be seeing glorious summery conditions but it should be noted that we’re seeing less ‘bad’ days than we were and the incursions are unsettled rather than a nice day or two dropped into a drab week

 

[mb018538]

On 18/08/2021 at 06:50, bluearmy said:

How do we break the cycle of meandering upper troughs getting through the weak ridging and making a beeline for nw Europe ? 
 

of course we may not be seeing glorious summery conditions but it should be noted that we’re seeing less ‘bad’ days than we were and the incursions are unsettled rather than a nice day or two dropped into a drab week

 

Never known a summer like it @bluearmy. Seems like every weak ridge or high that develops has an upper low stuck in somewhere.




ECM and UKMO look alright by the middle of next week - UKMO has less cool air coming in on todays run with the high in a better position. 

[Methuselah]

Now, where exactly did yesterday's GFS leave us? Ah yes, with today's GFS 00Z:

    

    

    

    

Scandinavian high building in time for another X-mas Day BFTE?

Och well, the GEFS ensembles are nae bad; the actual weather is unlikely to be worse than the operational?

    

 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm ecm and ukmo seem to have improved significantly this morning!!bring it on!!just in time for new school term!!

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z op is nae bad in the mid / longer term and there’s another surge from the Azores @ day 10 to help keep the predominantly decent pattern going to the end of august and perhaps into early september?!  

 

[carinthian]

Another slow moving Atlantic trough takes residence over South Britain. Not for the first time I ask. A familar pattern for much of this year. Whats happening over the North Altlantic with a weakened and displaced jet for such a long period now ? Will it get fired up for the coming change of seasonal cycle ? Lots of theories regarding a forthcoming demise of the Gulf stream out there. So the models in the medium term this morning continue to show a cool August for the British Isles with the speedy displacement of the recent heat over continent Europe.

C

[summer blizzard]

Away from the west GEM dumps the warmth almost completely. Low this weekend moves, we get a northerly then the Atlantic approaches. Job done for summer.

GFS keeps the high closer once the weekend low leaves but has a fairly persistent cool N/E flow out to day 10 which smells of cloud.

Euro clears the weekend low much quicker and so shifts the high east although it quickly disintegrates albeit potential rebuilding by day 10.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO looks peachy   I think we are slowly starting to see the upgrades the means we're showing us for some time.

Edited August 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm ecm and ukmo seem to have improved significantly this morning!!bring it on!!just in time for new school term!!

That's it mate...get the kids back at school,then we can get the deck chairs back out...The weather gods must have a serious grievance with the younger generation

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

UKMO looks peachy   I think we are slowly starting see the upgrades the means we're showing us for some time.

Yup and u can make that 3 out of 3 now as the gfs 06z joins the party!!!no where near as much rainfall for saturday now and remains very dry!!!the low was sticking to the uk on yesterdays gfs runs but now pushes quickly into the continent!!

[TwisterGirl81]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

That's it mate...get the kids back at school,then we can get the deck chairs back out...The weather gods must have a serious grievance with the younger generation

The government does too 

[mushymanrob]

Bad news if its sustained heat youre after. The Anomaly charts refuse to drift the high Eastward, in fact it retrogresses towards greenland.

So the bank holiday weekend is shaping up to be rather settled but cool, mainly dry but quite cloudy especially down the east coast. At least its not going to be a washout..

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Bad news if its sustained heat youre after. The Anomaly charts refuse to drift the high Eastward, in fact it retrogresses towards greenland.

So the bank holiday weekend is shaping up to be rather settled but cool, mainly dry but quite cloudy especially down the east coast. At least its not going to be a washout..

 

Seems to me they're doing what most of the data does..namely pick up on something more positive,before dropping the idea a few days later! I don't think I would like to call surface conditions in 12 days time though.

[mb018538]

On 18/08/2021 at 11:42, mushymanrob said:

Bad news if its sustained heat youre after. The Anomaly charts refuse to drift the high Eastward, in fact it retrogresses towards greenland.

So the bank holiday weekend is shaping up to be rather settled but cool, mainly dry but quite cloudy especially down the east coast. At least its not going to be a washout..

 

Been on the cards for a few days IMO. Think we will have to wait until into September for a more meaningful settled spell with a proper build of pressure rather than these flimsy ridges or highs floating about in the wrong place.

[Frosty.]

All things considered, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty decent as far as late august is concerned, it’s not as diluted as it was yesterday which suggests stronger support for a settled and warmer spell?..