model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes UKMO good T144, but so different from GFS:

Uncertainty at this timescale, caution about concluding anything beyond this from the op runs.

Edit, add GEM at same time, and this one looks very good:

Tendency for the high to set up a bit further north than we might like initially.  

Good post Mike,and just to point out the 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic currently are probably causing some major model headaches...Marco p pointed this out in his latest tweet.

[mb018538]

 

UKMO day 7 pulling in a lot of cool air from the east again. Looks quite likely to me that the high migrates north. Can’t really see much heat on offer with that route.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

If the latest GFS was a bouquet of flowers they'd be going straight into the dustbin for smelling of . Trough sprinting right across the Atlantic and halts right over UK for four days scoring another bullseye yet again. 

[Frosty.]

I must admit that next week looks messed up despite Scandi heights, there’s troughs / trough weaknesses in the mix so it doesn’t look as settled as recent days suggested..but..we can’t blame the models, the models don’t control the weather, they just respond to it and try and second guess what it will do with lots of number crunching which can lead to failure, a bit like when we make bold predictions with the best intentions, sometimes it works but most times it doesn’t!..anyway, currently I think the rest of august will be a mixed bag, and of course a mixed bag has something that should satisfy everyone at some point..I should just add, this doesn’t preclude a proper summery late august, it’s just based on my assessment of the current data available! 

Edited August 17, 2021 by jon snow

[StingJet]

15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Good post Mike,and just to point out the 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic currently are probably causing some major model headaches...Marco p pointed this out in his latest tweet.

Edit .... There is just one TS over the Atlantic at present that being "Henri" , "Grace" is located over the Caribbean, and "Fred" is dropping copious amounts of rain over Georgia, as a TD... 

the impacts of "Henri" in our neck of the woods remains to be seen, as we run up to the BH Weekend ... GFS 12z Op depicts a nice cue ball hit on the north Atlantic trough sending it whistling towards Iceland , with the remnants of Henri heading SE towards Portugal, a much better evolution for the UK when compared to the 06z GFS OP

[Methuselah]

The GFS 12Z operational run is nae bad -- once we get towards Day 10 of course!

    

    

    

I get a sneaky feeling that the Goofus has performed a triple somersault with pike, and become a warm outlier!

Edited August 17, 2021 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I must admit that next week looks messed up despite Scandi heights, there’s troughs / trough weaknesses in the mix so it doesn’t look as settled as recent days suggested..but..we can’t blame the models, the models don’t control the weather, they just respond to it and try and second guess what it will do with lots of number crunching which can lead to failure, a bit like when we make bold predictions with the best intentions, sometimes it works but most times it doesn’t!..anyway, currently I think the rest of august will be a mixed bag, and of course a mixed bag has something that should satisfy everyone at some point..I should just add, this doesn’t preclude a proper summery late august, it’s just based on my assessment of the current data available! 

I think I'm gonna send a nurse out to you mate to have your temperature checked...thats the first mixed outlook I've heard from you in ages.. I think your applying some reverse psychology mate  

I would say much model volatility at present.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think I'm gonna send a nurse out to you mate to have your temperature checked...thats the first mixed outlook I've heard from you in ages.. I think your applying some reverse psychology mate  

I would say much model volatility at present.

Hi mate, it’s just that the means look more diluted today, not clear cut settled like previous days, I’m obviously hoping for a good end to summer though! .....I think luck will be needed for things to fall into place nicely?  

[Guest]

Only one warm green ensemble hanging on the wall, one warm green ensemble hanging on the wall and when the last warm green ensemble falls on the floor they’ll be no more warm ensembles left at all.

 
 

A complete capitulation of the mean through the back end of the month. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Hi mate, it’s just that the means look more diluted today, not clear cut settled like previous days, I’m obviously hoping for a good end to summer though! .....I think luck will be needed for things to fall into place nicely?  

I'm gonna say something i rarely say mate...the mean is looking promising

Having a sense of humour is a must when your a UK resident,I'm sure you will agree.

[Methuselah]

If ye cannae have humour, when talking about British weather, ye might as well do a swan-dive off the Kessock bridge! 

[StingJet]

Yes Alderc , it would appear so , but as Matt eluded to earlier (re: Marco P post)  all models will struggle when having to factor in tropical air masses from ex TS / Hurricanes approaching the north east Atlantic. I have tracked these bad boys year on year, the net effect on our patch can produce negative and positive down stream effects.   Just an observation on the GFS 12z (runs end) , the remnants of "Henri"  pause for a day or two just east of the Azores, then commence a northerly track to the west of Eire , if this were to happen , there is potential for a southerly flow to permeate northwards over the UK ... aka Spanish Plume .

Just early days thoughts at the moment, at this range ... but worth tracking , for at least how this eventually evolves .

Edited August 17, 2021 by StingJet

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A complete capitulation of the mean through the back end of the month. 

As I said, it’s more diluted!  

Edited August 17, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, StingJet said:

Yes Alderc , it would appear so , but as Matt eluded to earlier (re: Marco P post)  all models will struggle when having to factor in tropical air masses from ex TS / Hurricanes approaching the north east Atlantic. I have tracked these bad boys year on year, the net effect on our patch can produce negative and positive down stream effects.   Just an observation on the GFS 12z (runs end) , the remnants of "Henri"  pause for a day or two just east of the Azores, then commence a northerly track to the west or Eire , if this were to happen , there is potential for a southerly flow to permeate northwards over the UK ... aka Spanish Plume .

Just early days thoughts at the moment, at this range ... but worth tracking , for at least how this eventually evolves .

Excellent summary mate,and most definitely this should be taken into account regarding the current model output! Especially one that has to many faces! 

I would say to GFS...if your gonna have so many faces,at least make one of them pretty

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM and UKMO at 120hrs..pretty close at this stage.

[Mark wheeler]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

ECM and UKMO at 120hrs..pretty close at this stage.

 

 

More Ukmo than gfs thankfully but not quite as good IMO .

Edited August 17, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

 

And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on.

This is like compare the market.com

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on.

This is like compare the market.com

Add the Mighty Navgem 12z at 144 hrs too .

[StingJet]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on.

This is like compare the market.com

Yes mate quite literally ..comparing the slight changes run to run,  model v model,  that is a good outcome the 120 to 144 transition with the trough continuing its easterly track into europe, allowing the ridge to the north of the Uk to expand westwards , keeping the primary trough , south of Greenland at arms length for now 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on.

This is like compare the market.com

ECM looks midway between UKMO and GEM to me.  GFS is nowhere.  

But just to comment on the excellent posts by @StingJet, this is the time of year from now until, what October, when these tropical storms can cause mayhem.  Normally, we can observe the background drivers on the systems here in the North Atlantic like the GWO, the MJO and make some predictions, but at this time of year these tropical storms can cause a kind of weather pinball and the effects of it can locally be just as profound on the UK if they come close enough as those other background signals.  A classic recent example is ex-hurricane Ophelia in 2017.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Bloody hell guys me fingers are working overtime tonight

168hrs comparison for you experts to analyse.

[Mark wheeler]

JMA at 144 hours .  So GFS seems alone at this time frame thankfully this evening . 

[StingJet]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Bloody hell guys me fingers are working overtime tonight

168hrs comparison for you experts to analyse.

lol Matt ,  you are just warming up mate ,  pardon the intended pun Sir

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS not for the 1st time..you are the weakest link.. last one from me for a bit due to friction burn   

Ecm is to coin a phrase.. sound.

Edited August 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[StingJet]

hmmm ... not much evidence of  TS Henri on the ECM 12z Op  , (with particular reference to Kold Weather's post earlier) kind of playing it down at the moment , I'll keep eyes on the NHC site for better visibility of proceedings / evolution.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by StingJet