model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mushymanrob]

well IMHO things have taken a shift towards a warm/hot spell after next weekend, the attatched chart illustrates why. The chart on the left is the previous chart from 3 days ago, the chart on the right is the current 8-14 day chart. The GFS chart is not an exact match, but is pretty close to what we can expect.....assuming these charts are proven to be accurate of course.

[sheikhy]

Whatever happens it looks like ite going to be extremely dry for the next 10 days at the very least

[draztik]

The South East fails to notice a positive temp anomaly through the the EC ens mean during its entire run this morning. NI and Scotland fair better, as has been the theme this summer. Days 5-10 2m temp anomaly attached. Days 10-15 similar. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by draztik
Review.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Dan Clow said:

Same ones who state snow is coming every year! People on here need to seriously take a good look at themselves and ask why am I waisting hours and hours of my life looking at day 10 charts then tell everyone on here a specific weather type is coming. Yesterday there were comments of over 30 degrees now its Autumn! Its absolutely ridiculous! 

I've got to be honest mate,I just had to ask family this......when I fell asleep last night,was I out of it for 6 weeks,then I woke up in an alternate reality!

Wow.....the fine spell ain't coming....it is coming! Plume on the way! Its looking autumnal! Low pressure taking over! Could be very dry for 10 days!   Confused.....com.

Stick with the means and current noaa guidelines on this...theres probably a reason why the met office forecasts have been stating very low confidence all season!

Chill its Sunday!

Edited August 15, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, the GFS 00Z operational run has gone into hiding; but, given the degree of scatter, does it really matter?

    

The mean is noticeably warmer than yesterday. Yet this morning you would think the chances of a warm spell had gone reading many of the posts in here!

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yet this morning you would think the chances of a warm spell had gone reading many of the posts in here!

I wonder where folk get that idea from.. !...hmmm ...but of course, it’s a cough.. , cough..outlier

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[Scorcher]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I wonder where folk get that idea from.. !...hmmm ...but of course, it’s a cough.. , cough..outlier

 

I've even had a sticky note from a troll calling me an 'alarmist' this morning- comical haha! He wasn't prepared to post his comments publicly as they made absolutely no sense. The odds are still strongly favouring a much warmer spell developing.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, draztik said:

The South East fails to notice a positive temp anomaly through the the EC ens mean during its entire run this morning. NI and Scotland fair better, as has been the theme this summer. Days 5-10 2m temp anomaly attached. Days 10-15 similar. 

Too many clusters with differing placements of the surface ridging …… only one will be right though….. and the same chance it would deliver a plume as a cool nor’easter …….

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The odds are still strongly favouring a much warmer spell developing.

I fully agree, always stick with the mean, or better still the anomalies!  

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

40 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I've even had a sticky note from a troll calling me an 'alarmist' this morning- comical haha! He wasn't prepared to post his comments publicly as they made absolutely no sense. The odds are still strongly favouring a much warmer spell developing.

Crazy mate..I had one last Winter telling me it wasn't normal behaviour to be chasing Winter from December through till April!! So i told him this year I will be chasing it from November though till April! Not heard back since!

And yes I agree,the means look good and the noaa look more promising,and I can guarantee you the 12s op runs will be more encouraging than the 0z output..

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume that applies to all 500mb charts and not just the anomalies?

I cant say ive noticed that myself in the anomalies... when a ridge is predicted over Ireland then thats where it turns up and not across the North sea! Obviously the implications weather wise for the UK would be marked.

Yes anything with respect to the 500 mb level. It’s a bit of a loose guide mind - on reflection I think the tilt could be as little as 50 miles sometimes.

Anomalies can give us a good idea where an extension of a subtropical high will end up if they’re strong ones, while weaker ones can be a decent guide for high latitude blocking provided there are negative anomalies to the southwest/south/southeast to indicate a high independent of the subtropical ridges.
 

- - - - - - -

I see the GFS 06z has asked the question ‘is ECM onto something after all?’. 12z runs will be important today I feel - yesterday GFS’ 06z run also explored the sneaky breakaway low idea only for the 12z to revert.

I still suspect it’s later in the last week of the month that the tropical influences will be more supportive of a plume scenario. Could be another classic case of models being too quick with the Atlantic-Europe response when the change in the tropics is first picked up on.

It’s not the most emphatic of forcing from there, though. I’ve yet to see a plume setup as being more likely than not. More likely we see some mostly pleasantly warm to very warm weather across a good portion of the UK as high pressure shuffles about in our vicinity.

[Frosty.]

I think the GEM has improved since yesterday?..anyway, longer term it looks Blocked, Settled & Warmer....the Holy Trinity!  

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro evolution is a bit strange at day 9-10 however both GFS/GEM follow the GEM run from last night in placing the high more to the north east of the U.K.

 

[Methuselah]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I've even had a sticky note from a troll calling me an 'alarmist' this morning- comical haha! He wasn't prepared to post his comments publicly as they made absolutely no sense. The odds are still strongly favouring a much warmer spell developing.

One of the tag team?  I guess the ramifications of 'Uncertainty', 'Probability' and' Chaos' are still not considered worthy of being taught in general education? Anywho, the GFS 06Z doesn't look too 'alarmist', to me!

    

    

    

 

[Guest]

 

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Too many clusters with differing placements of the surface ridging …… only one will be right though….. and the same chance it would deliver a plume as a cool nor’easter …….

Yep lottery time, I want to see much more consistency however given the way summer 2021 has gone the ECM solution or only a very brief warmup as per the GFS 06Z suggests seem most likely. The GFS ensembles are all the places and the very mild mean is heavy skewed so ignore it’s mean output IMO. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean becomes really impressive by late august! I think the odds favour a very warm anticyclonic spell followed by an increasing chance of humid thundery activity? ⛈ ? ...ps..I won’t ignore the mean..never ever..skewed pffft woteva!! 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

 

Yep lottery time, I want to see much more consistency however given the way summer 2021 has gone the ECM solution or only a very brief warmup as per the GFS 06Z suggests seem most likely. The GFS ensembles are all the places and the very mild mean is heavy skewed so ignore it’s mean output IMO. 

Come on mate...ignore the mean! The means are showing consistency,where as the Ops are swinging wildly from run to run! Yet your saying the ECM op run and the GFS 6z run are more likely to be closer to the mark! Probably based on the fact that's how Summer as panned out so far! Your saying you need to see consistency....the means are bringing us that...its the ops that are causing the headaches.

Perhaps a little more consistency from the anomalies also! So right now I think many of us will take that.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on mate...ignore the mean! The means are showing consistency,where as the Ops are swinging wildly from run to run! Yet your saying the ECM op run and the GFS 6z run are more likely to be closer to the mark! Probably based on the fact that's how Summer as panned out so far! Your saying you need to see consistency....the means are bringing us that...its the ops that are causing the headaches.

Perhaps a little more consistency from the anomalies also! So right now I think many of us will take that.

Ignore the means? That’s what 90% of the posts on this thread are always about lol. But Yes absolutely the Ops runs are flip-flopping around, but with them coming up with more variable outcomes of which some is increasingly questionable and given how summer has panned out and, along with how generally inconsistent modelling rarely leads to long settled spells there little to be optimistic about. 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z not really a good start to this afternoon’s run, T144, T180:

Looks like the high pressure would arrive eventually, but downgrades from yesterday…let’s see what the other models have to say…

Edit, UKMO much better at T144:

Probably not worth looking too much beyond day 6 at the moment, based on the evidence of these 2 runs…

Edited August 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO at 144 Mike...certainly not planting a low over us...im thinking improvement come next weekend.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

UKMO at 144 Mike...certainly not planting a low over us...im thinking improvement come next weekend.

Come on Matt, that’s a poor chart, fronts will be pushing through (maybe thundery) and we’ll be into a westerly afterwards. 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

UKMO at 144 Mike...certainly not planting a low over us...im thinking improvement come next weekend.

Difference between UKMO and GFS T120 is massive:

GFS very flat.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

3 from 3 so far. Summers done and dusted. Assume we’ll be back to HP building in about day 10-12….lol

Edited August 15, 2021 by Alderc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Come on Matt, that’s a poor chart, fronts will be pushing through (maybe thundery) and we’ll be into a westerly afterwards. 

It appears the met don't agree with there own model Chris.. yeh it's not great,I'm just trying to cling onto something here....I feel like I've just come towards the end of a 5 month winter chase,with nothing to show for it..im starting to  confuse myself now

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And if those 3 runs were showing a summary picture,you would be saying...your not convinced! Brave call that...Chris..  

Your not wrong, we’ve only two spells of decent weather this year, until it’s 2-3days and nailed on there no reason to believe a warm up is coming. If all three were summery I’d be saying more runs were needed given the inconsistency, however this is now becoming a clear slide away from  HP.