model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[stodge]

Evening all

Fans of heat were starting to get excited last evening as the very real possibility of a classic "plume" of hot air advected from Iberia heaved into view.

Let's see where we are tonight with the T+216 850s from the main models:

Respectively, GFS OP, GFS Control, GEM, JMA and ECM:

GEM looks the outlier with all the others showing hot air building from the south by Monday 23rd. JMA shows the plume already easing away to the east so may be progressive but GFS OP and Control and ECM all look very close.

Five days on and for both GFS OP and Control, the heat has moved away.

The problem for heat fans is the HP builds right over the top of the British Isles into FI cutting off the flow of hot air. It will be fine and settled and warm or very warm but really hot - perhaps briefly in the south but a the HP eases west or north west, a NE moves in and chases the heat away.

I'm not currently seeing a prolonged hot spell - I do think 2-3 days of heat (daytime maxima above 30c) are very likely for the south just before the Bank Holiday before the cooler air returns. One thing I do see is a prolonged spell of settled conditions with little rain and hopefully some fine and sunny days.

[Frosty.]

The JMA 12h has a plume!  ⛈ 

[Nick L]

Keep it model related please folks. Plenty of threads for weather preferences and such like.

[summer blizzard]

In an impressive feat for the NOAA anomaly charts the 12z runs do suggest that while close to the U.K. the high could end up much further north than expected. 

GFS at day 10 is trying to retrogress to the north west.

Euro not as regressive but a weaker trough would produce a similar outcome.

GEM is building a high somewhere near Iceland.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run out to T192 and I don’t think I could have drawn a better chart.

We would need to be patient with the hot air, not a route 1 scenario, but it isn’t bad at all:

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Whats going on with the netweather GFS update? Seems to be stuck at 99% on GFS 12z 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Whats going on with the netweather GFS update? Seems to be stuck at 99% on GFS 12z 

Take my word for it, the 18z is an absolute corker!

[Penrith Snow]

This mornings ECM pushes any really good weather out to Day 10 which is a great chart, it does however, remind me of winter and the ECM freezing easterly that is always at Day 10.

SE England might do OK from Day7 but for the rest of us summer is slipping away.

Andy

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 0z operational, summer ends...erm, erm, yeah...Autumnal! ? ️   

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[slater]

51 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

This mornings ECM pushes any really good weather out to Day 10 which is a great chart, it does however, remind me of winter and the ECM freezing easterly that is always at Day 10.

SE England might do OK from Day7 but for the rest of us summer is slipping away.

Andy

Summer slip away? , never got started most disappointing summer compared to the last few. This morning charts just tells it all really.

[mb018538]

Start of the back down?

Sunday has been shown for days now as warm and settled…. 00z ecm decides to plough a low straight through the UK instead.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO day 6

 

ECM day 6

 

No real point going further than that. Another ECM run that somehow manages to develop a strong jetstreak that pushes low pressure through the U.K. The GEM evolves similar to the ECM but tends to not be as bad with a shallow system quickly crossing the U.K before high pressure rebuilds. The GFS is more akin to the UKMO and quickly develops a hot south easterly for a time.

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

This mornings ECM pushes any really good weather out to Day 10 which is a great chart, it does however, remind me of winter and the ECM freezing easterly that is always at Day 10.

SE England might do OK from Day7 but for the rest of us summer is slipping away.

Andy

Such a misleading post. What about the GFS which actually shows a very warm/hot spell for next weekend?

UKMO also shaping up well.

It may not turn out great in the end but we need some balance in here.

 

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Start of the back down?

Sunday has been shown for days now as warm and settled…. 00z ecm decides to plough a low straight through the UK instead.

Pretty sure this is another outlier- GFS looking excellent for next weekend.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

It really makes me smile on here as the people seeking heat will jump from one model to another just to satisfy there craving for hot settled weather. In fairness any heat or settled conditions is always day nine/ ten and there it stays at that time frame.  Bit like searching for the illusive gold at the end of the rainbow

[DanDorsetUK]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It really makes me smile on here as the people seeking heat will jump from one model to another just to satisfy there craving for hot settled weather. In fairness any heat or settled conditions is always day nine/ ten and there it stays at that time frame.  Bit like searching for the illusive gold at the end of the rainbow

Same ones who state snow is coming every year! People on here need to seriously take a good look at themselves and ask why am I waisting hours and hours of my life looking at day 10 charts then tell everyone on here a specific weather type is coming. Yesterday there were comments of over 30 degrees now its Autumn! Its absolutely ridiculous! 

[Frosty.]

 

This is preety poor from the ECM 0z op!...what happened too the heatwave?..erm, it’s in the atlantic!

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[sundog]

Those still wanting heat have been trolled by the models so far this month. 

[mb018538]

On 15/08/2021 at 08:41, ANYWEATHER said:

It really makes me smile on here as the people seeking heat will jump from one model to another just to satisfy there craving for hot settled weather. In fairness any heat or settled conditions is always day nine/ ten and there it stays at that time frame.  Bit like searching for the illusive gold at the end of the rainbow

Well that’s not actually true - the NOAA anomalies and ECM 500mb weekly plots both show warmer and more settled conditions developing.

 

As for the ECM op this morning….thankfully an outlier.

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, jon snow said:

 

This is preety poor from the ECM 0z op!...what happened too the heatwave?..erm, it’s in the atlantic!

 

 

It’s funny because if we turn the chart upside down, you get the GFS!

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, the GFS 00Z operational run has gone into hiding; but, given the degree of scatter, does it really matter?

    

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean looks closer too the truth! ...August May yet totally redeem itself!!  

 

 

[Singularity]

Some people seem to have no idea how ‘possibility‘ works.

Anyway, the balance is still in favour of a very warm weekend, with ECM some way outside the pack.

Cant discount it though, as the key difference - a low peeling away eastward from the main trough - takes shape at just 96 hours range.

Either way, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see the high set up a bit west of the UK early the following week, as that does fall within the ensemble spread of late.

What would be surprising would be a lack of subsequent eastward drift to said high. Whether that leads to a plume setup or not is then a matter of how the high orientates. The way I see it, it remains an above normal probability but nothing more, just something worth keeping an eye on for now.

[Frosty.]

11 hours ago, jon snow said:

The JMA 12h has a plume!  ⛈ 

The JMA 0h also has a plume!   ⛈...I think I’m suffering from.......deja vu...  

[mushymanrob]

23 hours ago, Singularity said:

Surface highs are most supported a little east of the 500 mb ridge, by around 200-400 miles I believe, due to a tilt to the atmosphere imposed by the spin of the Earth.

 

I presume that applies to all 500mb charts and not just the anomalies?

I cant say ive noticed that myself in the anomalies... when a ridge is predicted over Ireland then thats where it turns up and not across the North sea! Obviously the implications weather wise for the UK would be marked.