model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[draztik]

33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Comical- literally the very bottom of the pack.

for context this was yesterday’s EC 12z op within its ensemble pack. And yet people were jumping for joy! 

[Frosty.]

How many years have I been doing this.. ?.,too damn many!...anyhoo I think I know enough to say when a summery spell is coming!!..nuff said!!!  

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

You know what guys, I love the Japanese, they are soo cool!..but they are clueless when it comes to the weather in the u k..they are great with their heatwaves in Tokyo..although it’s a bit wet there right now  ..pffft..  

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

Well to the 12s then, and first out of the blocks is the ICON, of course.  And this very much holds the line, high pressure to the east by T180 drawing up the warmer air.  So far, so good.

Edit, UKMO promising as far as it goes T144, clear trough to our west which is part and parcel of this upcoming spell, will be interested to see the T168 later:

Edited August 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

GFS not really following the earlier runs, UK high T192, but retrogresses west a bit at T240:

That’s where the uncertainty now lies, yes we will get the high, it is a question of where exactly it migrates to.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

58 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well to the 12s then, and first out of the blocks is the ICON, of course.  And this very much holds the line, high pressure to the east by T180 drawing up the warmer air.  So far, so good.

Edit, UKMO promising as far as it goes T144, clear trough to our west which is part and parcel of this upcoming spell, will be interested to see the T168 later:

Here you go Mike

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Here you go Mike

Thanks Matt, that really does look very promising for a heatwave at just T168.  GFS not really playing ball, and differences are early in the run, so plenty of uncertainty left in this, but if there is one model you want onboard it is the UKMO.

[Mike Poole]

Just to illustrate the danger the other way, i.e. the trough gets too close, just look at the GEM 12z, T168 and T240, and we don’t end up in a good place.  

UKMO sitting in the sweet spot between GFS and GEM this evening.  We await the ECM take…

[Frosty.]

Here’s the GEFS 12z in a little over a week from now..I rest my case!  

[mb018538]

Bit concerning how close some of the runs are bringing low pressure into play today. GEM is a total washout!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Bit concerning how close some of the runs are bringing low pressure into play today. GEM is a total washout!

Given the pattern of the summer thus far, meandering and cut off upper lows are no shock at all ……. All reflective of a weak jet

those awaiting a decent last third of august will have to hold their nerve …. A mean upper ridge does not discount a trough incursion  of some sort, usually fairly brief as it passes and fills or stalled and throwing a plume of some kind …..

 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM rolling, and maybe it is timely to look at where we are right now, so here’s the T0:

We will see where it goes from here, but for the south the weather hasn’t been dreadful recently, just not very warm for summer.  Hoping the ECM follows the UKMO tonight.  

[Methuselah]

Here we go, another GFS run that fails to get things sorted: the potential, for some sunny and warm/hot weather is clearly there, but it's far from guaranteed?

    

    

    

[Captain Shortwave]

The fly in the ointment appears to be the first area of low pressure and questions over whether it will fill and be absorbed by the upstream trough moving east. The ECM 00z managed to push the first low fully through the U.K. This run looks like filling this far quicker so will likely be a better run.

 

Yep at day 7, the Azores high should ridge cleanly towards the U.K.

[mb018538]

 

ECM holding steady - much better by Sunday 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The fly in the ointment appears to be the first area of low pressure and questions over whether it will fill and be absorbed by the upstream trough moving east. The ECM 00z managed to push the first low fully through the U.K. This run looks like filling this far quicker so will likely be a better run.

 

Yep at day 7, the Azores high should ridge cleanly towards the U.K.

And it does T192:

I think expectations should be of a UK settled spell for sure, but dragging the real heat from the south is looking slightly less likely now.  

Edited August 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm is becoming a good run...subtle difference between that Low on the 0z and the 12z ...looks like the South could end up very decent.

Edited August 14, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mark wheeler]

I'm just glad the ECM hasn't gone the gem route tonight.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ecm is becoming a good run...subtle difference between that Low on the 0z and the 12z ...looks like the South could end up very decent.

Yes, indeed, but is only the south T216:

I think most of us had greater expectations than this so will be interesting to see the ensembles later.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, indeed, but is only the south T216:

I think most of us had greater expectations than this so will be interesting to see the ensembles later.  

Settled and warm Mike...for me any Hot spell is likely to be shortlived...but I'm sure many will take a run of settled and warm,perhaps very warm further South.

Ps..its a cracking High pressure build though,granted it may not be where some want it...but things can change quickly in that respect.

Edited August 14, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

All’s well that ends well, T240:

[Frosty.]

By this months miserable pathetic standards so far, the ECM 12z op day 10 would be preety good if it verifies!  

[Methuselah]

Methinks there might be a wee bit of uncertainty within the GEFS 12Z ensembles:

    

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensembles continue to support high pressure and in a decent position too, here mean and spread T192 and T240:

Actually the position of the trough - out in the Atlantic - is the most significant feature of the modelling.  Still game on for final hurrah of summer, in my view…

[Frosty.]

To me it’s a pretty decent longer term ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight as far as late August is concerned!...it would mean a return to generally summery conditions for many of us.  ...ah ha..Mike beat me to it..not that it’s a race or anything!    

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow