model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z brings the unexpected, at least so soon, at T192, with the high already situated in a position to bring real heat:

GEM following suit at same time:

I wonder given earlier posts by @Singularity and @Tamara if the models are beginning to smell the coffee for a hot spell, not sure how long it would last, but in the last two weeks of summer, I’m sure many would appreciate a decent spell of warm weather.  Going on with GFS, T252, and we have +16C uppers into the south quite widely.  

If the models are shifting, then this probably isn’t the end of the story, and I wonder if by tomorrow’s 12z suite, this might be further cemented in…we will see…

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z is awful...........................for warmth fans and high pressure haters 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Could we bring up some warmer air come next weekend! Ukmo perhaps hints at that scenario! 

And can I just say congratulations to the Polar Vortex which was born the other day....hopefully in a few months time we can congratulate it on triplets  

Also of note on the UKMO some quite cold air pooling to the North of scandy!

But for the hear and now I'm hopefull of some much more summer like conditions to finish this month off.

Edited August 13, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

T96 and there is a real push from the west behind the ridge here on ECM:

Also on GFS at same time:

I think this run will end up with us in the heat!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a marked improvement further ahead, you know, I think August is going to deliver a summery spell to remember during the final third!!!...you could say, summer is getting its MOJO BACK..just in the nick of time!!! ⛈ ? 

Edited August 13, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, not as fast as GFS but still building well, Atlantic trough developing, allowing high pressure to build over UK and crucially for heat to our east:

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, compared with GFS at same time:

ECM a bit behind as I mentioned earlier, but also not pushing heights to the east so cleanly, GFS at the extreme of the envelope of possibilities, ECM somewhere in the middle, but still looking good but maybe not bringing in that continental heat going forward from here to the same extent.  

Edit having seen rest of run, was wrong about the last bit!!!

Edited August 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, not as fast as GFS but still building well, Atlantic trough developing, allowing high pressure to build over UK and crucially for heat to our east:

Mike what have I told you about drawing on ya phone screens...I won't buy you another

Ship ahoy...tha she blows..the heat is getting very close.

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles. I'll take it!:         

                        

[Captain Shortwave]

Similar trends on the 12z, the ECM looks like setting up a southerly through Western Europe for day 10.

 

The source of the heat looks a little more than modest doesn’t it. The ECM will produce a hotter trend longer term given the slightly flatter ridge but is much stronger in intensity and as such will allow heat to advect northwards more cleanly.

[Mike Poole]

Yes, good ECM to back up the earlier runs, here at T240 and it is all good in the hood:

+18C uppers on this one.  It would now be difficult to argue against a hot spell in a week or so’s time, I’m sure some will try.

Also, there is quite a big margin of error on the plume coming from that SSW direction.  It would have to be very wrong to miss us completely.  

Edited August 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Think we’re starting to get into the heatwave possible territory now….back end of next weekend and beyond. Looks to be good agreement for a building high to drift east and pull some of that furnace heat up from the south. Very hot by Monday here:

[Frosty.]

I expected nothing less from the ECM 12z op..over to you Basil!

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by jon snow

[Man With Beard]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T96 and there is a real push from the west behind the ridge here on ECM:

Also on GFS at same time:

I think this run will end up with us in the heat!

Good call! I'm seeing nothing but positives for the final third of August, whether ops or ensembles.

[Frosty.]

The JMA 12h turns into a BEAUTY!  

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

I’ll take this.  The wide range of the 1020 hPa contour on the mean suggests some uncertainty, but the spread suggests that uncertainty is not in our locale.  Game on.  If we didn’t know already.  

Edited August 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I agree with Mike, the ECM 0z ensemble mean was excellent and this from the 12z could be even better?...I don’t want to jinx it but I really do think the last third of august will be memorable for summer FANS!  

 

 

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Think we’re starting to get into the heatwave possible territory now….back end of next weekend and beyond. Looks to be good agreement for a building high to drift east and pull some of that furnace heat up from the south. Very hot by Monday here:

Wonder if that 25c Isotherm pushes up further as the week goes on or if it gets shunted to the east? Either way thats a lot of heat for the time of year as the temp deviations suggest below.

We've gone from dartobard lows tracking directly to us for the last 2-3 weeks to blood red highs creeping up from Iberia with the same accuracy.

The great British summer

Edited August 13, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240 and there is only one story in town - UK high:

The uncertainty is what it is connected to, cluster 3 tending to pull back and invite a northerly!  The others, the vast majority, offer SUMMER!  

The next 264+ charts are such a mixed bag, not worth posting, you’d do better to predict a settled September after the first week based on climatology, and be done with it.  That is where my money is, anyway.  

Edited August 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Scorcher]

It's looking very promising this evening- and the fact that we will be in the 2nd half of August when this possible hot spell comes will have little impact on the temperatures in my opinion.

Every time a spell like this happens later on in the month, people think the shorter days will hold the temps back- in an air mass like the ECM is showing, it will be pretty much irrelevant. The days are still easily long enough to support temps well into the 30s. Don't forget that we've had mid 30s virtually into mid September relatively recently.

[mb018538]

On 13/08/2021 at 21:42, Scorcher said:

It's looking very promising this evening- and the fact that we will be in the 2nd half of August when this possible hot spell comes will have little impact on the temperatures in my opinion.

Every time a spell like this happens later on in the month, people think the shorter days will hold the temps back- in an air mass like the ECM is showing, it will be pretty much irrelevant. The days are still easily long enough to support temps well into the 30s. Don't forget that we've had mid 30s virtually into mid September relatively recently.

Mid to high thirties easily possible if the airmass is hot enough. We’re just past the sweet spot for peak heat, but not by much.

[mushymanrob]

Sorry.. unpopular post time but tonights NOAA charts retain blocking to our north, and IMHO do not support a heatwave. 

Either im wrong

They are wrong

Both

Or not.

[Singularity]

I imagine you mean develop blocking to our north as we don’t have that currently.

Not that they actually do so anyway - shown  by the red dotted lines here is a positive anomaly to the north, not the ridge itself. That’s the northward bulge in the green lines, which indicates support for surface high pressure beneath. Axis of that roughly Iberia to North Sea so ECM 12z day 10 would be a fit when accounting for the NOAA chart covering all of 8-14 days.

Note also the trough well positioned to our west for driving very warm or hot air northward across Western Europe.

Honestly, recent trends have begun to ring an alarm bell labelled ‘that record-threatening heat might pay us a late summer visit’. Of course even if it does, we’re unlikely to challenge the summer records so late on - but mid-30s would not be out of the question even outside of the usual hotspots.

Sensible hat says, a direct hit is still a low probability - but having it on the table at all is significant.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Singularity

[JayAlmeida]

GFS 18z has some real heat developing over western france @FI range just need that to move a bit further north and we're in business.

[draztik]

The GEFs and EC Ens point to average temps for the UK, through days 7-15. The EC op at day 9/10 is quite the outlier. But as always, why let that spoil a story.