model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Kind of in No man's Land with ECM...neither strong ridging or any significant Lower pressure influence...I would say increasingly settled and rather warm for mid next week onwards...Like I said earlier though little sign of going into the oven as @Alderc puts it...

I would even go to far as say even a Fan assisted oven

I will take a more settled outlook for now though...then take it from there.

Well folks we have left No man's Land and are now in Jon o groats

Definitely more settled.

@damian law wow mate that's a shocker regarding those temps...hopefully something for you to cheer about soon.. 

believe it or not...I've had a few folks approach me lately to say....I thought we was undergoing serious climate change?? Why is it so cool and average here!  Obviously climate is the bigger evolution and the weather is the here and now...but you just can't seem to get the point across to some folks.

Edited August 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Kind of in No man's Land with ECM...neither strong ridging or any significant Lower pressure influence...I would say increasingly settled and rather warm for mid next week onwards...Like I said earlier though little sign of going into the oven as @Alderc puts it...

I would even go to far as say even a Fan assisted oven

I will take a more settled outlook for now though...then take it from there.

Not recorded 20 degrees here yet this month!

[Frosty.]

I think the Gfs 12z operational was drivel, I have more faith in the mean longer term and the GEFS 12z, like the 6z has a lot going for it!...so I’m sticking to my guns regarding a significantly better second half or at least last third of August which would mean summer ending on a high note rather than a bum note! ? 

[carinthian]

GFS produces an early winter overview chart for 25th August with early snowfall in Lapland. A pretty awful chart for NW Europe.  As usual too far out to get upset or excited but it is in the mix shown by the models at that range.

 C

[Methuselah]

GFS goes from the sublime to the ridiculous, from one of the best runs to one of the worst:

    

Oh, the joys of model-watching!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Must be down to a big negative mountain torque that's gone up, or down, or perhaps up and down all at the same time?

The Mountain torques which are midlatitude based...ie the rocky maintains and the Himalayas regions have a big link towards the fluctuations of AAM..the torque in the tropics and polar regions perhaps playing a lesser role. So its possible the current output may be struggling to come to terms with this..A possibility anyway.

[JayAlmeida]

Tonight's 12z runs are pretty meh with the heat of previous runs all but gone for next week (ECM was never quite convinced anyway). The GFS doesn't want to get a proper ridge going until the 27th now and the less said about the ECM and GEM the better. The ICON seems to be the only model flying the flag for a decent ridge developing after day 7 but its firmly in the minority. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s mid / longer term ECM 12z ensemble mean is nae bad at all if you’re hoping for a more settled mid / late August?  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As you were with the 12z mean...a predominantly settled outlook....but with little sign of anything very warm out to day 10..

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Sounds good  but the forecasts in here  over the last several weeks have been, erm.. , wrong, so you forgot to include the rubix cube torque then....

But no-one in here has made any forecasts, David . . . we've only ever reported on what the models a saying at the time?

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

12z runs out now at T144:

 But the details are quite uncertain at T144, so what happens next is anyone’s guess, and once again it is possible to show T240 charts for two of the op models that are total opposites for the UK, here GFS and GEM:

That has been the case for the last few runs now, and just shows how we need the uncertainty resolved earlier before trying to make predictions on the 10 day scale based on the op runs.  

 Which is why we use the anomalies, which rule out/confirm which run is most likely to be accurate.

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And the latest 8-14 day chart DOES progress the Eastward drift of the high, and DOES develop troughing to our Southwest which is exactly what we need for heat further down the line




 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Sounds good  but the forecasts in here  over the last several weeks have been, erm.. , wrong, so you forgot to include the rubix cube torque then....

Erm...many of us simply forecast what the model data is showing at the time...many of us on here are amateurs! Even the pro forecasts have been out of kilter at times from Exeter!And I was simply explaining  how torques have an influence on Angular Momentum...tbh your post is a little disrespectful to Singularity who brought this up in an earlier post,and to the knowledge and insight of Tamara...to name a few.

It's pretty easy mate to pan all the forecasts on here,then go over to the moans thread and have a further dig and joke about it. How about bringing us a forecast instead.

[Mark wheeler]

Mighty Navgem 12z 

[Mike Poole]

59 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 Which is why we use the anomalies, which rule out/confirm which run is most likely to be accurate.

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And the latest 8-14 day chart DOES progress the Eastward drift of the high, and DOES develop troughing to our Southwest which is exactly what we need for heat further down the line




 

It’s why you use the anomalies.  And to be fair you make some good calls, but we all have our own methods in this amateur forecasting game…and we win some, we lose some, whatever models or tools we use.  On this occasion, I just choose to remain on the fence!

The reason is there are kind of two options, high pressure nudges in from the west and we get settled but not hot weather, and high pressure breaks off and draws a continental flow with heat.  The average of those two is not particularly helpful, so I’m waiting out more info on which is going to be right, if either, of course. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Although the Gfs 0z operational is hell-bent on bringing an early autumn, the mean is much better longer term, I’ve used some 0z and some 18z mean charts as the 0z hasn’t finished updating yet!  

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

And yes, the GEFS 0z has now fully updated, and yes, the mid and especially longer term mean is much better than the crappy op!...  

[carinthian]

Based on that latest chart from UKMO for mid day Saturday, I think a forecast would be tricky. With so many outdoor events now taking place and stay vacations with -in the United Kingdom, getting it right will be a good achievement from a weather forecasters point of view. It could be a nice day for many but on the other hand the advance of the warm front and the associated low could speed up. Tricky one this to predict regional forecasts. My guess is 50/50 for wet and cloud/ fine and warm. Difficult call this one. A forecasters dilemma. Get it right  a good guy, get it wrong your a load rubbish !.

C

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, jon snow said:

And yes, the GEFS 0z has now fully updated, and yes, the mid and especially longer term mean is much better than the crappy op!...  

How is the ecm looking ?!!!

[jamesthemonkeh]

14 hours ago, Singularity said:

Worth noting that we now have a big negative mountain torque underway, following a big positive one.

 

What effect could this have on global weather patterns over the coming weeks?

[Methuselah]

A somewhat familiar look to today's GEFS 00Z ensembles, I feel: things set to get much better -- after Day 10. Or not?: 

    

Edited August 12, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

For sure, the ECM 0z ensemble mean improves longer term..if settled is what y’all are hoping for?! ? 

[bluearmy]

Still looking good for summery conditions as we head into the final third of the month 

whether we get any upper lows meandering their way into the mix is gonna be tough to pin down but with the mean upper ridge just to our east,  you’d hope to see any that do appear to stall to our west or southwest 

[Methuselah]

Well, I never ever thought I'd be using the terms 'Griceland' and 'heatwave' in the same sentence!: 

    

[johnholmes]

My take on the possible weather for the next 2 weeks using the 500 anomaly charts. Just one take on the two week period. Feel free to disagree but please show charts and your reasons. 

Thursday 12 August

Ec-has a largish closed upper low off e Canada with some ridging in uk area; flow is just about w’ly for uk The air is sourced from south of Hudson Bay!

Noaa some similar ideas to ec but not entirely. A fairly marked contour ridge, but less marked than Monday, it has also been moved east from approx 35 W to 15-20 W, flatter than on Monday; there is a reasonable sized +ve anomaly in this ridge (150 DM). The following trough about 50W, just off the Canadian coast; was at about 70 W on Monday. Thus the pattern is reasonably mobile. Indeed on the 8-14 the ridge-trough is shown having moved east; the ridge, over/just e of the uk and the trough, still quite sharp at about 35 W with a fairly small –ve anomaly in the base of the trough.Again the 500 flow looks to be from about the same region as EC

The start of the 6-10 day period will see the showery set up giving way to a, probably, fairly short more settled spell, with changeable conditions redeveloping into the 8-14 day period. Reasonable temperatures, no really cold air, in spite of the path and origin of the 500 flow. No signal, to me, of any marked heat coming into the UK. It is possible, briefly if it does occur, for the SE of England during the change over from settled to less so.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I never ever thought I'd be using the terms 'Griceland' and 'heatwave' in the same sentence!: 

    

That heat coming out of Iceland / Greenland is EPIC!...I cannae wait!  

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by jon snow