model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

 No complaints from me this morning whatsoever regarding the output...Summer so far here as been average to below,but I have better things to be doing than to keep moaning about it on this thread!

UKMO looks like things will improve next week...ECM is OK....GEM is nice...and GFS...well....Great fail system seems a good sum up.

@Ed Stonenow you've said nae bad....I feel assured

Edited August 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Downburst]

Feeling balmy for Iceland. Upper air only matched in the med. I saw 19c two days ago, which is 46% increase on average August high. now their houses are insulated. So for the foreseeable, warm air will have to come from the north west area to get here. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Downburst

[Methuselah]

Aye Matt, the GFS 00Z looks pretty good to me. But, I must admit that I enjoy slow-moving thundery showers almost as much as blistering heat and sunshine!

    

    

    

And the GEFS ensembles are nae bad: Post-Day 10 looks like being a stonker!

    

[Frosty.]

To me, to you! ..

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean trends less unsettled, or to put it another way, more settled... ...anyway, to me.... ...it looks like august will gradually improve! ....they always made me chuckle!  

 

[Eagle Eye]

Alright I'm back but not for long as I'm at cricket camp so here's all that I can post for now. 

I offer hope

 

[Methuselah]

It looks as if next week's warm, humid northwesterly is still on. Hopefully (at least in many southern & eastern parts), blue skies and sunshine might be the order of the day?

    

Decaying fronts permitting!

Edited August 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[JayAlmeida]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Matt, the GFS 00Z looks pretty good to me. But, I must admit that I enjoy slow-moving thundery showers almost as much as blistering heat and sunshine!

    

    

    

And the GEFS ensembles are nae bad: Post-Day 10 looks like being a stonker!

    

Well after it's two run wobble the GFS seems to be back on track with a build of HP at some point next week! Dont like that lingering low sticking around on Monday and Tuesday but we could see better weather as the week progresses . The ECM looks pretty meh and lacks any sustained heat and the GEM tries to build heat from day 8. After a few model wobbles we could end up with summer returning as predicted even if the ECM isn't quite convinced just yet.

Edited August 11, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[mushymanrob]

Dont get too wound up over various operational glitches, it doesnt matter if theres a bad run or two, thats normal... the NOAA charts advance, slowly, the high thats building to our West, progressing it slowly Eastward.

There might be no heatwave as such, but its certainly close. High pressure, although not strong, is still expected on these charts that are consistent and show a gradual evolution to higher pressure.

edit...its worth noting the troughing developing to our Southwest, if that continues and we get the high centred to our East, then heat is pretty likely.

Edited August 11, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Dont get too wound up over various operational glitches, it doesnt matter if theres a bad run or two, thats normal... the NOAA charts advance, slowly, the high thats building to our West, progressing it slowly Eastward.

There might be no heatwave as such, but its certainly close. High pressure, although not strong, is still expected on these charts that are consistent and show a gradual evolution to higher pressure.

edit...its worth noting the troughing developing to our Southwest, if that continues and we get the high centred to our East, then heat is pretty likely.

The logical evolution would be for things to gradually warm up over time and then possibly turn hot as the high drifts further east. Fingers crossed for a warm to hot last third of the month.

[Methuselah]

IMO, today's GFS 06Z is one of the best runs thrown-up this summer. I'll take it!

    

    

    

And the HP moves over the UK well before Day 10 . . . and, hopefully, will stay until the end of October! It's a cracker!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

57 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Dont get too wound up over various operational glitches, it doesnt matter if theres a bad run or two, thats normal... the NOAA charts advance, slowly, the high thats building to our West, progressing it slowly Eastward.

There might be no heatwave as such, but its certainly close. High pressure, although not strong, is still expected on these charts that are consistent and show a gradual evolution to higher pressure.

edit...its worth noting the troughing developing to our Southwest, if that continues and we get the high centred to our East, then heat is pretty likely.

I'm gonna say something that as rarely been said on here this Summer! The mean is looking promising

Great update Mushy...im starting to like your posts more and more mate

Like I said...the 6z mean looks encouraging,even Chris may raise a glass to this..Hold on in there mate...Summer could be returning  

Edited August 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

The logical evolution would be for things to gradually warm up over time and then possibly turn hot as the high drifts further east. Fingers crossed for a warm to hot last third of the month.

But only if the high was centred and orientated right. It could turn into a Scandinavian high or be centred North of the UK, then we could pick up and Easterly which is often bad for Eastern areas.

That has yet to be determined, but high pressure domination even if its not overly strong, looks highly likely.

[Frosty.]

This has already been covered but the GEFS 6z mean will cheer up many summer fans hoping for a BIG finish to summer 2021, the ingredients are all there, Azores high, Scandi high, possible plumes etc...sure, there’s still some rubbish in the ensembles but I think you would find, even in the best spells of the past, there would have been some crap here and there...anyway, far from being a DUD end to summer, I think there are very good grounds for optimism regarding the second half / last third of August! ⛈ ? 

[Methuselah]

Now, who was it that insisted our tentative predictions of mid-20sC this week were going to be wrong -- 'average at best' were the actual words used, I believe?!

And the GEFS ensembles are lovely:     

PS: 24C at 1300hrs!

PPS: Lots of uncertainty going forward: 

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

I see that the Greenland Riviera looks like hotting up . . . 15C T850s! 

    

And that's not forgetting the potentially worrying heat build-up 'down there'! 

[Frosty.]

All things considered, the ICON 12z is nae bad at T+180 hours..it’s better than the Ukmo at T+144 hours anyway!   

Edited August 11, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

The difference between the GFS 06Z and 12Z runs is very subtle and nuanced. But, it's definitely there!

    

Edited August 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

850s of 30C in spain and GFS is doing its very best to prevent any of it coming our way. Another run marked and checked for the recycle bin.

[Mike Poole]

12z runs out now at T144:

Good news is that there is a ridge building in on all to one extent or another.  From the west, and so nothing remotely hot in the near term, just settling down, but that will suit many.  But the details are quite uncertain at T144, so what happens next is anyone’s guess, and once again it is possible to show T240 charts for two of the op models that are total opposites for the UK, here GFS and GEM:

That has been the case for the last few runs now, and just shows how we need the uncertainty resolved earlier before trying to make predictions on the 10 day scale based on the op runs.  

Edited August 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

Worth noting that we now have a big negative mountain torque underway, following a big positive one.

Models tend to be overly sensitive to these with some runs getting carried away - we saw it one way with some model runs that were mainly dry and warm next week, now we’re seeing it the other with some runs that keep high pressure to our west or even northwest right through the week.

The middle ground of those is probably the best guide, especially given that the ensemble means continue to support it well.  That being HP very influential from the west by Wed with temps near average, then building across further during the rest of the week with temps starting to climb higher.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Singularity
Never Trust Mobile Phones

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

12z runs out now at T144:

Good news is that there is a ridge building in on all to one extent or another.  From the west, and so nothing remotely hot in the near term, just settling down, but that will suit many.  But the details are quite uncertain at T144, so what happens next is anyone’s guess, and once again it is possible to show T240 charts for two of the op models that are total opposites for the UK, here GFS and GEM:

That has been the case for the last few runs now, and just shows how we need the uncertainty resolved earlier before trying to make predictions on the 10 day scale based on the op runs.  

Personally Mike I always think its a mistake at the best of times to try too make predictions based on the op runs..and I'm sure you will agree. It appears GFS and UKMO are throwing out wildly differing scenarios by the run towards day 7 onwards..

That GFS 12z op looks poor at day 10, but the mean tends to be not siding with it! No surprises there then! I'm not sure how many of the ens are backing that op run up as of yet...but for me a steady improvement towards mid next week....No Heatwave for sure as yet,the sypnotics don't allow...perhaps sign on the mean of it eventually warming! I've also noticed Exeter have dropped the hotter spells scenario,to be replaced with temps perhaps a touch above average! If we can get a lengthy settled spell,plenty of sunny spells and rather warm...im sure many would take that option now! 

For me though,all this constant talk of being in a catastrophic climate situation,is making a few people think we should be getting Heatwave after Heatwave! Not always the way it works though! But perhaps next year may deliver much better.

Come on folks..let's get behind one last Summer reload..  

The mean shaping up a treat.

Edited August 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

If we look at the big three at T120, then there is this low on the GFS, it is receding on ECM, and pretty much isn’t there at all on UKMO:

It is how this pans out that will influence how quickly high pressure and settled weather takes hold.  GFS has a known bias for overblowing such lows, ECM is sound, but I’m backing UKMO here.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Personally Mike I always think its a mistake at the best of times to try too make predictions based on the op runs..and I'm sure you will agree. It appears GFS and UKMO are throwing out wildly differing scenarios by the run towards day 7 onwards..

That GFS 12z op looks poor at day 10, but the mean tends to be not siding with it! No surprises there then! I'm not sure how many of the ens are backing that op run up as of yet...but for me a steady improvement towards mid next week....No Heatwave for sure as yet,the sypnotics don't allow...perhaps sign on the mean of it eventually warming! I've also noticed Exeter have dropped the hotter spells scenario,to be replaced with temps perhaps a touch above average! If we can get a lengthy settled spell,plenty of sunny spells and rather warm...im sure many would take that option now! 

For me though,all this constant talk of being in a catastrophic climate situation,is making a few people think we should be getting Heatwave after Heatwave! Not always the way it works though! But perhaps next year may deliver much better.

Come on folks..let's get behind one last Summer reload..  

The mean shaping up a treat.

 

On the bolded bit, said this before but this is why I dislike the mean. Unless there’s a clear trend especially in summer the mean at day 7-10 often indicates a settling pattern from the south west as it’s blended mix of all sorts, that then rarely comes through in actuality, wide scatter in medium range seems (I use the team seems as have little evidence to back if up) to result in a generally unsettled pattern. Rarely do we see a flip flopping pattern like now and at day 7-10 only end up in the oven. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Alderc

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If we look at the big three at T120, then there is this low on the GFS, it is receding on ECM, and pretty much isn’t there at all on UKMO:

It is how this pans out that will influence how quickly high pressure and settled weather takes hold.  I’m backing UKMO here.

That low is a major spoiler for the weekend, develops out of nowhere! Was hoping for somethign drier, but one again a rather cool and unsettled weekend on the cards. August once again failing!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

That low is a major spoiler for the weekend, develops out of nowhere! Was hoping for somethign drier, but one again a rather cool and unsettled weekend on the cards. August once again failing!

Only if you believe the GFS!

ECM T192 says aye!

I think we just need to get this settled picture, and then see where we go from there re hotter or plumier scenarios.