model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Well that's if your gonna base your forecasts on just the GFS alone..i thought the clusters looked good,and the noaa an improvement! Wow mate...you sum up the outlook as DISGRACEFUL! its a weather forecast not a poor refereeing decision at a big game!

Not really given the GFS is in close alignment with UKMO and the ECM is nothing but a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Surface conditions are cloudy, cool and barely average with a strong north westerly flow in the majority of places. Again I’m commenting on the actually output of the model. Show me an ops run from the 12Z suite that’s warm and pleasant at the surface through next week and I’ll gladly concede. 
 

Weve had three months of people posting about warm ups and heatwaves and positively at 10days and we’ve seen one 6 day hot spell that most people on here then moaned about because it was too warm. Better to be realistic than keep hoping for something that isn’t coming. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

So, the GFS 12Z operational is not, as the run reaches its 'destination', an outlier; it's just on the warmer end of a very scattery ensemble:

    

[Frosty.]

Summer is still alive and kicking according to the ECM 12z operational!..I’ve seen some very good signs today, I’ve seen some crap signs too but I think the second half of august will be much better than the first half!  

charts a bit messed up, I’m still new to all this! 

Edited August 10, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not really given the GFS is in close alignment with UKMO and the ECM is nothing but a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Surface conditions are cloudy, cool and barely average with a strong north westerly flow in the majority of places. Again I’m commenting on the actually output of the model. Show me an ops run from the 12Z suite that’s warm and pleasant at the surface through next week and I’ll gladly concede. 
 

Weve had three months of people posting about warm ups and heatwaves and positively at 10days and we’ve seen one 6 day hot spell that most people on here then moaned about because it was too warm. Better to be realistic than keep hoping for something that isn’t coming. 

No guarantees in life Chris apart from meeting your maker! Long term signals are looking better for the South and don't forget the met are onboard with that also.

You say the ECM is a wolf in sheep's clothing! Well that must make the GFS a cow in pigs clothing surely! 

Have a little faith my man,try not to get to emotional when you see a poor run or 2. Everything always gets better in the end.

[Mike Poole]

To balance any negativity, I feel I’ve ignored the best 12z run so I will put that right straight away.  JMA at T144 (Jackpot already), T192, T264:

This run at the most positive of the envelope of possibilities at the moment.  

Edited August 10, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

As I said earlier, I’ve seen some good signs today..here’s a few of them!!!!  

Ah ha!!! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T144:

And T240:

You can see the uncertainty at T144 on the spread, but by T240 that uncertainty is actually reduced in the vicinity of the UK on the spread so I think there is confidence that once the uncertainty at T144 is resolved, settled conditions will prevail.  And I think the JMA solution is included in this ensemble from these plots.  

Edited August 10, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

That's not a bad ECM mean at day ten,...temps and pressure within the envelope,still need a little more shift east but it's getting there.

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten EPS...

...but wait,...the temps need to improve so better/warmer conditions for the NW,cooler SE as these stand

i await upgrades

Edit:CPC/NOAA just updated and as you were from last evening's.

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Mark wheeler]

I am really encouraged this evening by the runs . Yes the Gfs and especially the Ukmo are not great . However we have ECM , JMA and yes Navgem ( not fully out yet ) showing positive signs . Also we have the Gem that shows the low the Ukmo has but quickly ushers in more promising conditions. I've just read Tamara's excellent post and I have reasons to be cheerful . Here is is the gem in transition to more settled conditions on tonight's run . 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[damianslaw]

Only viewed the ECM this evening which is very promising for longer term if you are after settled warm conditions, alas on reading the thread I thought.. oh, it must be very different to the GFS and UKMO. We have a stand off between the three at the moment, but the differences are beyond the reliable timeframe, don't be surprised to see them each align in the coming days. Will they align to the ECM scenario or GFS scenario though?

We've had a year so far punctuated with about 3 week spells of similiar weather it seems, dry and warm/cold, or unsettled warm/cold with little in the way of more fluid cool/warm atlantic conditions. A meridional flow with ridge either to the east, over the UK and to the north, or sat out to the west.. so we might expect a change come a weeks time or so, back to a drier settled warmer pattern, the ECM is suggesting this. This would be very welcome, as late August/early Sept can still pack a summery heat punch.

[Uncertainty]

What is this monstrosity on the UKMO?

It’s barely a wave on the ECM

 

A halfway house on the GEM produces a lot of rain along the frontal boundary

 

And on the JMA, the disturbance doesn’t even make it past Biscay and the high quickly ridges over the top.

So for next Sunday / Monday we have either

a) An intense four day shower fest for all

b) A weak front fizzling out over the South west

c) A narrow band of heavy and persistent  rain through central areas

d) Long sunny spells

In all cases, there would be showers in the N and W due to the Nwerly flow.

Not an easy forecast, that’s for sure.

 

[ICE COLD]

Evening everyone . I can’t believe the lack of heat this summer , specially down here it’s been very wet too . ( suits me down to the ground because I hate heat ) . Going by ECM mean on the graph it’s more of the same hovering around +7 850s for the next 10 days but looking a lot drier . Silly season fast approaching . See you soon . 

[johnholmes]

36 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten EPS...

...but wait,...the temps need to improve so better/warmer conditions for the NW,cooler SE as these stand

i await upgrades

Edit:CPC/NOAA just updated and as you were from last evening's.

 

As you were?

One is 6-10 days and one is 8-14, or are my eyes really playing tricks on me?

 

[bluearmy]

Very promising summery eps mean days 9/12……lowish spread too

could be headed for a July rerun of sorts and almost similar timeframe 

[Uncertainty]

33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

As you were?

One is 6-10 days and one is 8-14, or are my eyes really playing tricks on me?

 

I think he meant they are reasonably similar to the corresponding output from the day before John, with the core of the higher heights anomaly being positioned just to the W of the U.K. 

Some evidence of it drifting eastwards with time now appearing, hopefully will show up on the noaa charts next few days...

GEFS 300

 

 

 

Lots of settled and warm options in extended EPS, with the HP to the E/NE favoured. A rare hen tooth in August indeed.

As @Mike Poole rightfully points out, higher confidence in the day 10 output than the day 6 thanks to that annoying weekend feature.

The mjo composite for a Nina August phase 2 looks like this:

Which matches reasonably well to the 6-10 NOAA, at least in the Atlantic sector:

Personally I’m not FULLY convinced until we see the back of that horrendous low on the UKMO. It’s still there on Tuesday!

But finally, the long awaited build of pressure mid/late August is now the form horse. All the models at day 10, NOAA, the MJO progression, the BBC and Met office are all on board with some sort of HP influence. 
You would have to say there’s reasonable confidence in a drier, more settled end to summer.

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 10/08/2021 at 21:54, bluearmy said:

Very promising summery eps mean days 9/12……lowish spread too

could be headed for a July rerun of sorts and almost similar timeframe 

Except without the same intensity of the sun that we had in July. Would be much more pleasant being mid August on.

Sun at 58 degrees in mid July compared to 50 degrees by mid August. Makes all the difference to how it feels in the sun and to what extent the house heats up during the day.

Edited August 10, 2021 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

On 10/08/2021 at 21:35, johnholmes said:

As you were?

One is 6-10 days and one is 8-14, or are my eyes really playing tricks on me?

 

The both 6-10 and 8-14 dayers are similar to last evening John,...sorry i should of been a bit more clearer in my text.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Not really given the GFS is in close alignment with UKMO and the ECM is nothing but a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Surface conditions are cloudy, cool and barely average with a strong north westerly flow in the majority of places. Again I’m commenting on the actually output of the model. Show me an ops run from the 12Z suite that’s warm and pleasant at the surface through next week and I’ll gladly concede. 
 

Weve had three months of people posting about warm ups and heatwaves and positively at 10days and we’ve seen one 6 day hot spell that most people on here then moaned about because it was too warm. Better to be realistic than keep hoping for something that isn’t coming. 

An imminent hot spell looks off, but it was never certain on the ensembles. The settled spell D8 onwards seems more credible but heat not guaranteed, depends on the flow.

[JayAlmeida]

The GFS 18z looks pretty grim and intent on keeping the recent green swirly snot going. Luckily it's in the minority of today's other GFS operational runs. One thing that's certain is that there's not much time left this summer and it would be nice to go out on some kind of high note.

[Frosty.]

 

 

 

 

The Gfs 0z operational has shunted the more settled signal very much into late august, and with tropical storm activity in the mix, that could play havoc with how the models look longer term from run to run...as for next week, it turns into a shambles...however, this obviously doesn’t preclude next week being much better than this run shows?...I don’t take individual op runs as gospel!  

 

[Guest]

The story of 2021 continues this morning, standard Day 10 warm weather chasing. While it can obviously get warm up to and including early October I think any exceptional warmth is done for this year (not that we’ve had any) next weak looks meh to poor depending on how much the trough develops, even best chase is looking pretty cool and cloudy with a strong north westerly flow. Not buying into any warm up longer term really, we’ve said the same all summer and look how the last ten weeks has panned out. 

[northwestsnow]

50 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The story of 2021 continues this morning, standard Day 10 warm weather chasing. While it can obviously get warm up to and including early October I think any exceptional warmth is done for this year (not that we’ve had any) next weak looks meh to poor depending on how much the trough develops, even best chase is looking pretty cool and cloudy with a strong north westerly flow. Not buying into any warm up longer term really, we’ve said the same all summer and look how the last ten weeks has panned out. 

But your theme contrasts with many further North,the Model thread doesn't centre on your location.

What does standard day 10 warm weather chasing mean exactly ? It's been mainly warm here and in many places  in June and July. 

I'm on the fence for the August,  the 00z runs seem unsure too,although it looks quite dry looking at the EC 00Z,granted it was a quick take...

[mb018538]

Not a fan of this day 8-10 evolution on the ECM this morning, just a one way ticket to nowheresville. 

GEM looking better



We can forget about the 00z GFS as it's had a mid-run meltdown, but with average pressure hovering around 1020mb, and few ppn spikes it shouldn't be too bad.

[mb018538]

High pressure very close by or over the UK on all ECM clusters this morning as we head into the last 10 days of August