model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned the mid / longer term ECM 0z op / mean?..but they suggest a more settled spell around mid month!  

[mushymanrob]

18 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

The NOAAs do show ridging to our west, IF they progress Eastwards then these charts youve posted are within reach. But theres no guarantee that it will progress Eastward and IMHO could simply "flatten out".

As things stand then IMHO theres not really any  support for these charts within the timeframe they pertain to.... however, they arent far off, maybe these charts are just a bit progressive by a couple of days? We will see tonight when the next ones are out.

........... And they have progressed the Western ridge eastwards, although its not currently expected to be a hugely strong one. That doesnt matter though, what this chart is forecasting is pretty good.
After the weekends fun and games - the uncertainty - pressure out to our West is expected to slowly track Eastwards. This will settle things down, although cool at first with a mean Northwesterly, this will fall light. Itll become drier, calmer, and warmer with plenty of sunny spells/bright skies.
As @Allseasons-si suggested, we could be on to something, because if the Eastward progression of this ridging continues, then temperatures will only go up as we pick up more of a continental draft.

Id suggest the 00z ECM is just about bang on the money as that run is IMHO closest to the NOAA 500mb anomaly charts. So some possible heat by later next week/weekend or just after.

[Downburst]

Well the ECM medium range outlook and the anomaly charts. Looking at Pressure, next and week after to end August. Not too bad folks I hope. 

And the temperature shows no blues for anyone at this stage

 

And the Rain, well not bad, with western facing areas not taking the usual August deluges. 

[Tamara]

On 04/08/2021 at 18:15, Tamara said:

This makes it likely that Atlantic ridging will continue to dominate proceedings overall, though as per the previous post, its worth watching out to see how  tropical storm activity intervenes if, following any recurving tropical storm (from within the Equatorial Atlantic) another intra-seasonal kelvin wave crosses the tropics and a further temporary rise in angular momentum occurs. This maybe more likely late this month and perhaps into September. Other than this, any hotter spells and more southerly winds (for UK/NW Europe) seem harder to come by and restricted to breakaway ridging transferring eastward ahead of main troughs and associated advection of  brief plumes

Olá, tudo bem

This extract from previous post still seems good for continuity purposes. That intra-seasonal signal discussed in the post looks to provide another phase of eastward temporary migration of the Atlantic ridging and a rinse and repeat of the mid to late July pattern as angular momentum tendency responds to eastward propagation of tropical convection through the Maritime continent in the last third of August

The GWO holding around weak Phase 8 to no discernible signal (Phase 0) in the short/medium term which retains greater Atlantic ridging element.....

 

....but with a westerly wind burst beginning across the Indian Ocean and propagating towards the Maritime continent this should start to correspondingly adjust the rossby wave pattern eastwards as active tropical convection and thunderstorm activity replaces suppression in this region - and then on into the Western Pacific.

The net product of this likely to orbit the GWO back to Phase 4 (greater downstream ridging) before the low frequency walker cell reclaims ascendancy and Pacific re-amplification re-sets the wavelength back to the downstream ridging in the Atlantic.

However, before all that, a good chance for some fine, very warm later summer weather for NW Europe during the last third of August. In the immediate term, heat is building down here across southern Europe. 30C locally today and tomorrow (around the August seasonal daily maximum average)  rising through the latter part of the week with 36/37C likely by Saturday - edging back to 32/33C by Monday. Further inland still ,towards and over the Spanish border and through the Portuguese Alentejo and Algarve regions, values of 40C or more look very likely

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Fazendas de Almeirim | Meteologix.com

Screenshot

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Olá, tudo bem

This extract from previous post still seems good for continuity purposes. That intra-seasonal signal discussed in the post looks to provide another phase of eastward temporary migration of the Atlantic ridging and a rinse and repeat of the mid to late July pattern as angular momentum tendency responds to eastward propagation of tropical convection through the Maritime continent in the last third of August

The GWO holding around weak Phase 8 to no discernible signal (Phase 0) in the short/medium term which retains greater Atlantic ridging element.....

 

....but with a westerly wind burst beginning across the Indian Ocean and propagating towards the Maritime continent this should start to correspondingly adjust the rossby wave pattern eastwards as active tropical convection and thunderstorm activity replaces suppression in this region - and then on into the Western Pacific.

The net product of this likely to orbit the GWO back to Phase 4 (greater downstream ridging) before the low frequency walker cell reclaims ascendancy and Pacific re-amplification re-sets the wavelength back to the downstream ridging in the Atlantic.

However, before all that, a good chance for some fine, very warm later summer weather for NW Europe during the last third of August. In the immediate term, heat is building down here across southern Europe. 30C locally today and tomorrow (around the August seasonal daily maximum average)  rising through the latter part of the week with 36/37C likely by Saturday - edging back to 32/33C by Monday. Further inland still ,towards and over the Spanish border and through the Portuguese Alentejo and Algarve regions, values of 40C or more look very likely

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Fazendas de Almeirim | Meteologix.com

Screenshot

 

 

Firstly Tams that's a positive update from you..Many Thanks..secondly I'm just dying to get over to yours and water that Garden

And last but not least we have a decent GFS 6Z mean to finish off on...dare I say it now...a more encouraging outlook! 

Ps Tams..I hope that cat of yours is not over doing the Sun..

[Frosty.]

Just flicking through the GEFS 6z..a few things struck me, the Azores high looks very interested in the u k during the mid / longer term and there’s also a good chance of Scandi heights with perhaps a link up between the 2 anticyclones leading to a blocked longer term outlook?!... there are some fantastic perturbations !!...fingers crossed late summer will deliver for all summer FANS!! ?  

 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

A very uncertain outlook, according to the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A very uncertain outlook, according to the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

Well it’s the u k Ed so there’s normally nothing more certain than an uncertain  outlook.. ...but I tried to cut through all the chaos and suggest the second half of august will become summery again?...of course the weather could have other ideas..the perils of trying to make predictions! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A very uncertain outlook, according to the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

Tell you what Pete going on the Exeter update today,it looks like a much better outlook for the South,and quite poor for the North! Quite the turnaround from a few days back,when it was the North is best option.. tbh perhaps us Midlanders South deserve a bite at the cherry now.. its been back to front all Summer. Looking good away from the North though moving forward. Next week looking pretty decent further South now.

[northwestsnow]

Let's hope UKMO has had a brain fart this evening.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Let's hope UKMO has had a brain fart this evening.

I didn’t even know the Ukmo had a brain? ..   ...anyway, erm, erm...yeah...next!!  

Edited August 10, 2021 by jon snow

[BrickFielder]

Certainly starting to look like a transition of global blocking patterns as the Pacific equatorial winds begin to move things a little eastwards.  Will be interesting to see how the possible warm seclusion cyclone coming in later this week plays out with the models not used to modelling this type of cyclone at this time of year. The potential development of a tropical storm in the Caspian Sea looks like playing a part in the near future as well.

As always weather forecasting modeling beyond 5 days should be taken with a broad stroke and the indicators are generally for a change in the recent pattern.

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Let's hope UKMO has had a brain fart this evening.

Goodness, unfortunately GFS is the same and as per the default for 2021 the UK becomes a festering trough magnet. GFS slowly gets better from about day 8 but the amount of times we’ve seen that this year it has also zero credit. 

[sheikhy]

Its just amazing how that crappy trough has all the space in the world left or right of the uk but seems to plonk it self right over the us!!its like we are a low magnet!!!its like there is a imaginative shield over the english channe!france and the rest of europe ends up scorching hot!!!

[Methuselah]

Very iffy GFS 12Z, at least up until Day 10 -- the story of Summer 2021?

    

    

    

Another outlier?

[Uncle_Barty]

6 hours ago, Tamara said:

Olá, tudo bem

This extract from previous post still seems good for continuity purposes. That intra-seasonal signal discussed in the post looks to provide another phase of eastward temporary migration of the Atlantic ridging and a rinse and repeat of the mid to late July pattern as angular momentum tendency responds to eastward propagation of tropical convection through the Maritime continent in the last third of August

The GWO holding around weak Phase 8 to no discernible signal (Phase 0) in the short/medium term which retains greater Atlantic ridging element.....

 

....but with a westerly wind burst beginning across the Indian Ocean and propagating towards the Maritime continent this should start to correspondingly adjust the rossby wave pattern eastwards as active tropical convection and thunderstorm activity replaces suppression in this region - and then on into the Western Pacific.

The net product of this likely to orbit the GWO back to Phase 4 (greater downstream ridging) before the low frequency walker cell reclaims ascendancy and Pacific re-amplification re-sets the wavelength back to the downstream ridging in the Atlantic.

However, before all that, a good chance for some fine, very warm later summer weather for NW Europe during the last third of August. In the immediate term, heat is building down here across southern Europe. 30C locally today and tomorrow (around the August seasonal daily maximum average)  rising through the latter part of the week with 36/37C likely by Saturday - edging back to 32/33C by Monday. Further inland still ,towards and over the Spanish border and through the Portuguese Alentejo and Algarve regions, values of 40C or more look very likely

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Fazendas de Almeirim | Meteologix.com

Screenshot

 

 

Thank you Tamara.

 

Quick Q - where does one find the GWO charts? Looks like NOAA have stopped publishing them.

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Very iffy GFS 12Z, at least up until Day 10 -- the story of Summer 2021?

    

    

    

Another outlier?

Unfortunately not, once again defeat snatched away from the jaws of victory, overwhelming majority of ensembles back a trough anchored over the uk for 4-5days. In fact the switch back to high pressure edging back in from the south west actually looks more like an outlier. Also looks like for most of tomorrow and Thursday the south will once again be completely cloudy stuck under a decaying front - Disgraceful.

[Frosty.]

These are decent GEFS 12z mean charts for the last third of August, ok it’s the mean, broad brushstrokes but there would be a good chance of the last days of summer being SUMMERY!!!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Unfortunately not, once again defeat snatched away from the jaws of victory, overwhelming majority of ensembles back a trough anchored over the uk for 4-5days. In fact the switch back to high pressure edging back in from the south west actually looks more like an outlier. Also looks like for most of tomorrow and Thursday the south will once again be completely cloudy stuck under a decaying front - Disgraceful.

Well that's if your gonna base your forecasts on just the GFS alone..i thought the clusters looked good,and the noaa an improvement! Wow mate...you sum up the outlook as DISGRACEFUL! its a weather forecast not a poor refereeing decision at a big game!

[Mark wheeler]

Thankfully Ecm is not going the UKMO route this evening.

[Mike Poole]

So here’s the 12z motley crew at T144, in order of improvement (at that time, note):

I say at that time, because the passing of that particular low does not necessarily influence later timescales.  

So a lot of uncertainty at T144.  Beyond that, it looks like more settled conditions will prevail, but that the high will have its centre towards the west not east of the UK (most model runs show this), so while some settled weather is welcome, it isn’t going to be any heat fest.  But with the air coming around the northern flank of any high, the seas are warm there so a pleasant period coming up despite uncertainties at around T144:

Oh, and there’s that tripole again, 3rd time I’ve seen it in rude health since May.  I wonder if we are taking a mediocre summer, for increased optimism of a decent winter this year.  One for discussion later into autumn…

 

[Mark wheeler]

My favourite the Navgem is also tricking out at the moment but just checking it's earlier run it sure ended well . I hope it ends similar very soon . Had to get this chart in following last nights too .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm 48 and think I'm falling in love again!! With the 12z ECM

If this is close to the money I can finally take myself and the dog for an ice cream  

[Allseasons-Si]

There is increasing signs that higher pressure will(i hope) be the dominant player looking at the temp and pressure anomalies from the gefs mean...

...with main pv lobe out to our NW

the gfs op and control are quiet respectable in that sense,...yeah fl i know but it's the trends that we are looking for

@BrickFielder,that Scandi high could be there for the taking going into the latter half of this month,...^^great post mate,thanks^^

oooh!!!,...forgot to mention @Tamara's post ^^,great post as always

Edited August 10, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well basically I'm gonna stick 2 fingers up at UKMO and GFS....tonight ECM is king....all hail the King!