model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

On 09/08/2021 at 19:34, MATTWOLVES said:

It's more likely to be a flying pig mate

Ha! ha!,...that made me chuckle there Matt

pork scratching's may be the order of the day if the temps get high enough

the pressure ens ain't nae bad at all towards the latter stages,...is something afoot,...yeah,...pigs trotter's 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey up lads...spot the difference between the 0z and the 12z ECM? I can..namely that Low pressure wasn't anywhere to be seen earlier!! I give in...seriously I'm thinking eventually this run will end well! Get ready to pelt me with house bricks

Well a few hundred mile difference for arguments sake.

Edited August 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

such is the confidence I have in the control run.

I always thought the control run was in control of the situation?..shows how much I’ve learned these last 16 years!  

Anyway, tomorrow looks a decent day compared to recently and then it becomes warmer from the south with the s / se in particular enjoying some good weather, at least for a time.  

[Allseasons-Si]

@MATTWOLVES,it looks  like a heat low to me...

The ECM at 216/240

nudge this slightly further west and we could end up with +20 uppers hitting our shores

[mb018538]

I see the BBC are using the outlying 00z ecm op run in their extended outlook tonight. They do it all the time!! Really annoys me. Darren Bett saying high pressure will build in and dominate…..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I always thought the control run was in control of the situation?..shows how much I’ve learned these last 16 years!  

Anyway, tomorrow looks a decent day compared to recently and then it becomes warmer from the south with the s / se in particular enjoying some good weather, at least for a time.  

It's always a concern mate when any forecaster uses those magic words...FOR A TIME! Usually spells trouble. And the end of the 12z spells trouble for the South! Got to be honest here though guys,this model is seriously struggling lately...run by run...absolutely no consistency at all! 

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey up lads...spot the difference between the 0z and the 12z ECM? I can..namely that Low pressure wasn't anywhere to be seen earlier!! I give in...seriously I'm thinking eventually this run will end well! Get ready to pelt me with house bricks

Well a few hundred mile difference for arguments sake.

It was on the GFS too at this timescale.  But too far beyond the reliable to know.  One to watch.

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, I have the feeling that the operational and control runs are both better than what the real weather will be like: 

    

Shirley not?! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Mark wheeler come on mate..the Navgem is gearing up for a treat by day 8....

Gfs kind of sinks that Low further South,Ecm makes it more troublesome,while the GEM seems to have it positioned much further North than the morning run!  What does all of this tell me!!  I'm non the wiser than the day I first started studying model charts!! 

[ANYWEATHER]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I see the BBC are using the outlying 00z ecm op run in their extended outlook tonight. They do it all the time!! Really annoys me. Darren Bett saying high pressure will build in and dominate…..

Lols he really looks as though he believes that computer forecast !! Two eggs on my face Please Sir Seriously the Ecm output is nonsense at the moment, Gfs looks like it's running ahead as regards better reliability. ...

[Mark wheeler]

24 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

come on mate..the Navgem is gearing up for a treat by day 8....

Just seen that and rushed to the thread to post it . What can go wrong .

[tinybill]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Just seen that and rushed to the thread to post it . What can go wrong .

lots!!!!!!

[Frosty.]

 

 

I think there is some incredible heat potential on the ECM 12z op, it may even come in through the back door ?!...I think with all that intense heat further south, anything is possible?...seriously guys, Shirley the ecm has potential?....and it’s not just the ecm, some other output in the last few days shows hot potential too?!!! I think to completely rule out heat potential with charts like these would be foolish?!  

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by jon snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Hmmm!!!

keep on nudging that hp cell further east and then we might be onto something...

the latest from the CPC/EPS

a long slog though...

[DAVID SNOW]

A short lived thundery plume has been played about with from all models, for some time now and would be welcomed by me, to add NO model shows any chance of extreme heat from Spain heading our way, that will all slip away to our south and east.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hmmm!!!

keep on nudging that hp cell further east and then we might be onto something...

the latest from the CPC/EPS

a long slog though...

A hint of an improvement on those noaa charts si...just a quick mention on tonight's EC46...it still wants to bring a much more settled scenario for the final 10 or so days of the month...This is the current guidance from the mean by the way...not had much chance to view all 50 members yet.. But the trend remains the same of a more settled final 3rd of the month! 

Just to add some weight to this.....A really promising end to the month from tonight's 46... a  more significant build of Heights is now evident from the mean....fingers crossed.

Edited August 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Allseasons-Si]

On 09/08/2021 at 21:57, MATTWOLVES said:

A hint of an improvement on those noaa charts si...just a quick mention on tonight's EC46...it still wants to bring a much more settled scenario for the final 10 or so days of the month...This is the current guidance from the mean by the way...not had much chance to view all 50 members yet.. But the trend remains the same of a more settled final 3rd of the month! 

Looking at the extended EPS clusters Matt there looks to be signs of a more settled outcome fingers

 

[Frosty.]

I’m not sure what the ECM 12z operational has been smoking, it sure was groovy but the mean appears to be gradually trending more settled around mid month with the Azores high / ridge waxing more than waning?! ...so, there’s still a more settled mid august signal?  ...anyway, hope summer gets its mojo back before it’s over! 

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking at the extended EPS clusters Matt there looks to be signs of a more settled outcome fingers

 

Really good clusters again - in 3 of the 5 clusters, well positioned for a UK high, or slightly east, with a continental surface flow. Second half of August certainly has promise, for once

Edited August 9, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Frosty.]

The Azores high will always try and build towards the u k and that certainly happens on the Gfs 0z operational, I think the majority would be happy if a spell like this occurs between mid / late August! ? 

[Methuselah]

Well, well, well, the GFS 00Z run looks fine enough, although the never-predicted-by-anyone infusion of European super heat still looks rather elusive: 

    

    

    

That said, I'd suggest that 30C is well within the realms of possibility? 

[mb018538]

UKMO / ECM / GFS / GEM 144

Unusual to see such huge differences at day 6. GFS and GEM look quite similar for the UK but have the energy from the low phased completely differently. 

What a mess.

[Methuselah]

Ah well, I'm nae usually one for springing surprises, but the 00Z operational run is something of an outlier:

    

[FetchCB]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah well, I'm nae usually one for springing surprises, but the 00Z operational run is something of an outlier:

    

Don't seem to be able to post the chart but the pressure ensemble graph less of an outlier? 

Possibly suggesting orientation of the high producing differing 850's?

[mb018538]

Quite a reasonable set of ECM clusters on the whole.

Updated 500mb anoms from last night aren't too bad either. West based high to start with doesn't indicate heat, but could give some decent weather at times. Trough over scandi. The +ve heights move east as we reach the last week of August and this shows up on the regime frequency plot.
This moves from Atlantic Ridge dominating (purple 15th-21st August) to blocking right out until the end of the end as the high pressure moves east.