model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow...GEM and ECM at same time frame! Could it possibly be any further apart! I'm also noticing how the ECM mean was flagging  up the better conditions,with the ops not backing it up for quite some time! Now we have the ops hinting at the improvements,and the mean not really backing it up...we really do need these to be on the same page! So I can't say with any confidence what the outcome will be further along the line. Perhaps best to choose the bit in the middle...some decent conditions,interspersed with less settled conditions at times. Perhaps more largely settled towards the final week or so...

[mb018538]

On 09/08/2021 at 10:37, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow...GEM and ECM at same time frame! Could it possibly be any further apart! I'm also noticing how the ECM mean was flagging  up the better conditions,with the ops not backing it up for quite some time! Now we have the ops hinting at the improvements,and the mean not really backing it up...we really do need these to be on the same page! So I can't say with any confidence what the outcome will be further along the line. Perhaps best to choose the bit in the middle...some decent conditions,interspersed with less settled conditions at times. Perhaps more largely settled towards the final week or so...

Very chalk and cheese. I personally think this is an instance where it probably won't be something in the middle....it will either hold the low back and develop a split flow like the ECM and allow settled conditions, or it'll all collapse out and go very unsettled like the GEM solution. So it could be very nice, or grim like the GEM run!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Very chalk and cheese. I personally think this is an instance where it probably won't be something in the middle....it will either hold the low back and develop a split flow like the ECM and allow settled conditions, or it'll all collapse out and go very unsettled like the GEM solution. So it could be very nice, or grim like the GEM run!

Yes mate,last night we had the GEM showing a much improved picture for it to completely go the other way this morning! Last nights ECM kind of lost its way towards the end of the run....for it to flip towards a much more summary outcome this morning. But I think we have had a few ECM op runs highlighting a better outcome recently! Perhaps hints of those improvements later this month being mentioned by Exeter! Let's see if the 12z carries on with that theme,or throws us back to square one.

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow...GEM and ECM at same time frame! Could it possibly be any further apart! I'm also noticing how the ECM mean was flagging  up the better conditions,with the ops not backing it up for quite some time! Now we have the ops hinting at the improvements,and the mean not really backing it up...we really do need these to be on the same page! So I can't say with any confidence what the outcome will be further along the line. Perhaps best to choose the bit in the middle...some decent conditions,interspersed with less settled conditions at times. Perhaps more largely settled towards the final week or so...

So the ECM 00z is getting its massive 1025mb high pressure gazonga's out and shaking them right in our face!? Thought the GFS was the biggest tease!?

Nice to see more positive permutations from the ECM this morning after the doom and gloom yesterday. That GEM run looks pretty dire though and at this point its completely up for grabs.

Edit: The GFS has something closer to the GEM in the 00z with the 06z looking closer to the ECM. So we are looking at 2 potential scenarios for next week.

Edited August 9, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Frosty.]

For sure I wouldn’t call the ICON 6z iconic! ..but it does become pretty decent for a time across the far south / southeast!...ps..I hope Tamara’s air conditioning is working ok!  ...I’m a big fan of Tamara! 

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

This is the best I’ve seen the longer term ECM ensemble mean look for some time!...and very much in tune with the 0z operational too!  
Charts a bit messed up, well I’m only human!  

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by jon snow

[Man With Beard]

I'm liking the look of the longer term ECM clusters. Might be an increasingly settled end of the month coming up - the closer the oranges are to the UK, the better the chance of above average heights

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've got a feeling in me water that my earlier predictions of more settled around that mid month period are gaining some traction..A few days out perhaps...but that's to be expected when your a glorified amateur

Some of these ops are possibly smelling the coffee...The 6z GFS also wants to settle us down a treat! Clusters look good...errr.....come on @mushymanrobbring us some noaa joy...Please mate

Edited August 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[johnholmes]

Not mushy but I do keep a very close eye on NOAA and EC 500 anomly charts.

Ec is more favourable in the 6-10 day period, see below

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

NOAA not yet; its suggested ridging would be great for winter fans!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I've got a feeling in me water that my earlier predictions of more settled around that mid month period are gaining some traction..A few days out perhaps...but that's to be expected when your a glorified amateur

Some of these ops are possibly smelling the coffee...The 6z GFS also wants to settle us down a treat! Clusters look good...errr.....come on @mushymanrobbring us some noaa joy...Please mate

The NOAAs do show ridging to our west, IF they progress Eastwards then these charts youve posted are within reach. But theres no guarantee that it will progress Eastward and IMHO could simply "flatten out".

As things stand then IMHO theres not really any  support for these charts within the timeframe they pertain to.... however, they arent far off, maybe these charts are just a bit progressive by a couple of days? We will see tonight when the next ones are out.

[Weather Boy]

5 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow...GEM and ECM at same time frame! Could it possibly be any further apart! I'm also noticing how the ECM mean was flagging  up the better conditions,with the ops not backing it up for quite some time! Now we have the ops hinting at the improvements,and the mean not really backing it up...we really do need these to be on the same page! So I can't say with any confidence what the outcome will be further along the line. Perhaps best to choose the bit in the middle...some decent conditions,interspersed with less settled conditions at times. Perhaps more largely settled towards the final week or so...

If you wanted a certain type of weather (eg warm and sunny) to come about would you rather have GEM on your side and ECM against or vice versa, in order for it to come true?

I think most model watchers, speaking generally, would prefer the latter.

[Frosty.]

First out of the blocks is the ICON 12z...but honestly, it should have stayed in the blocks! ..not a pretty sight, but, it’s only the ICON so nae worries... ...actually, tomorrow and especially later this week look decent across the s / se...I’m showing T+180 hours charts! 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

First out of the blocks is the ICON 12z...but honestly, it should have stayed in the blocks! ..not a pretty sight, but, it’s only the ICON so nae worries... ...actually, tomorrow and especially later this week look decent across the s / se...I’m showing T+180 hours charts! 

Ha-ha! ICON being wheeled out first reminds of Winter 12Z's when there is something of interest for us coldies - next we will be asking that tease Harmony to struck her stuff again.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ha-ha! ICON being wheeled out first 

I keep waiting and hoping for an ICONIC run...I’m still waiting!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

First out of the blocks is the ICON 12z...but honestly, it should have stayed in the blocks! ..not a pretty sight, but, it’s only the ICON so nae worries... ...actually, tomorrow and especially later this week look decent across the s / se...I’m showing T+180 hours charts! 

Word of caution there mate...sometimes the ECM as been known to follow the icon run! So probably best we don't completely discount it.

GFS 12z could potentially bring a real blast of heat,obviously depending on that trigger Low towards the South could end up..We could get summary,we could get thundery...hell...we could get the kitchen sink.

But I'm sure you guys up North won't be minding that chart one bit.

Edited August 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Snowman.]

First post in a while but this would not be ideal. Likely heavy rain for hours in the south with flooding likely.

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Snowman.

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+240 would not be all that welcome -- rain, rain and more rain, in all the places that need it least:

    

[Snowman.]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

GFS 12Z at T+240 would not be all that welcome -- rain, rain and more rain, in all the places that need it least:

    

If the low sinks quickly might be worth it in the end, but this GFS run isn't having that.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

If the low sinks quickly might be worth it in the end, but this GFS run isn't having that.

Tbh the GFS is doing what it does everyday...namely throwing up its 4 different solutions a day...im not to sure this solution will be backed up by mean either.

[Methuselah]

Aye @MATTWOLVES . . . I can already smell an outlier!   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye @MATTWOLVES . . . I can already smell an outlier!   

The control is positioning that Low to perhaps bring a real taste of Heat towards the SE...again Pete.. all possibilities on the table here.

[Allseasons-Si]

I don't mind outlier charts if they are showing something like this from the control run,...yeah!!!,...FL i know...

...but you never know.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't mind outlier charts if they are showing something like this from the control run,...yeah!!!,...FL i know...

...but you never know.

It’s usually me posting charts like that..... ..I must be losing my touch, posting crappy icon charts instead!  

[Allseasons-Si]

Wow the control run looks awesome and do i spot a wee bunny jumping over that huge high pressure

the op and control though are a tad on the high side of the pack,...trend setters

Edited August 9, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Wow the control run looks awesome and do i spot a wee bunny jumping over that huge high pressure

It's more likely to be a flying pig mate  such is the confidence I have in the control run.

Edited August 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES